Autoregressive time series prediction by means of fuzzy inference systems using nonparametric residual variance estimation

We propose an automatic methodology framework for short- and long-term prediction of time series by means of fuzzy inference systems. In this methodology, fuzzy techniques and statistical techniques for nonparametric residual variance estimation are combined in order to build autoregressive predictive models implemented as fuzzy inference systems. Nonparametric residual variance estimation plays a key role in driving the identification and learning procedures. Concrete criteria and procedures within the proposed methodology framework are applied to a number of time series prediction problems. The learn from examples method introduced by Wang and Mendel (W&M) is used for identification. The Levenberg–Marquardt (L–M) optimization method is then applied for tuning. The W&M method produces compact and potentially accurate inference systems when applied after a proper variable selection stage. The L–M method yields the best compromise between accuracy and interpretability of results, among a set of alternatives. Delta test based residual variance estimations are used in order to select the best subset of inputs to the fuzzy inference systems as well as the number of linguistic labels for the inputs. Experiments on a diverse set of time series prediction benchmarks are compared against least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), and k-NN based autoregressors. The advantages of the proposed methodology are shown in terms of linguistic interpretability, generalization capability and computational cost. Furthermore, fuzzy models are shown to be consistently more accurate for prediction in the case of time series coming from real-world applications.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TEC2008-04920Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-03674, IAC07-I-0205:33080, IAC08-II-3347:5626

Significance Regression: Robust Regression for Collinear Data

This paper examines robust linear multivariable regression from collinear data. A brief review of M-estimators discusses the strengths of this approach for tolerating outliers and/or perturbations in the error distributions. The review reveals that M-estimation may be unreliable if the data exhibit collinearity. Next, significance regression (SR) is discussed. SR is a successful method for treating collinearity but is not robust. A new significance regression algorithm for the weighted-least-squares error criterion (SR-WLS) is developed. Using the weights computed via M-estimation with the SR-WLS algorithm yields an effective method that robustly mollifies collinearity problems. Numerical examples illustrate the main points

NARX-based nonlinear system identification using orthogonal least squares basis hunting

An orthogonal least squares technique for basis hunting (OLS-BH) is proposed to construct sparse radial basis function (RBF) models for NARX-type nonlinear systems. Unlike most of the existing RBF or kernel modelling methods, whichplaces the RBF or kernel centers at the training input data points and use a fixed common variance for all the regressors, the proposed OLS-BH technique tunes the RBF center and diagonal covariance matrix of individual regressor by minimizing the training mean square error. An efficient optimization method isadopted for this basis hunting to select regressors in an orthogonal forward selection procedure. Experimental results obtained using this OLS-BH technique demonstrate that it offers a state-of-the-art method for constructing parsimonious RBF models with excellent generalization performance

Learning Active Learning from Data

In this paper, we suggest a novel data-driven approach to active learning (AL). The key idea is to train a regressor that predicts the expected error reduction for a candidate sample in a particular learning state. By formulating the query selection procedure as a regression problem we are not restricted to working with existing AL heuristics; instead, we learn strategies based on experience from previous AL outcomes. We show that a strategy can be learnt either from simple synthetic 2D datasets or from a subset of domain-specific data. Our method yields strategies that work well on real data from a wide range of domains