CEDIM Research Report 2015-2016

The Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) is an interdisciplinary research institution in the field of disaster management. This report provides an overview of the research work and activities of CEDIM during 2015 and 2016 at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

Social Space and Social Media: Analyzing Urban Space with Big Data

This dissertation focuses on the key role that big data can play in minimizing the perceived disconnect between social theory and quantitative methods in the discipline of geography. It takes as its starting point the geographic concept of space, which is conceptualized very differently in social theory versus quantitative methodology. Contrary to this disparity, an examination of the disciplinary history reveals a number of historic precedents and potential pathways for a rapprochement, especially when combined with some of the new possibilities of big data. This dissertation also proposes solutions to two common barriers to the adoption of big data in the social sciences: accessing and collecting such data and, subsequently, meaningful analysis. These methods and the theoretical foundation are combined in three case studies that show the successful integration of a quantitative research methodology with social theories on space. The case studies demonstrate how such an approach can create new and alternative understandings of urban space. In doing so it answers three specific research questions: (1) How can big data facilitate the integration of social theory on space with quantitative research methodology? (2) What are the practical challenges and solutions to moving “beyond the geotag” when utilizing big data in geographical research? (3) How can the quantitative analysis of big data provide new and useful insight in the complex character of social space? More specifically, what insights does such an analysis of relational social space provide about urban mobility and cognitive neighborhoods

Spatiotemporal Wireless Sensor Network Field Approximation with Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network Models

As sensors become increasingly compact and dependable in natural environments, spatially-distributed heterogeneous sensor network systems steadily become more pervasive. However, any environmental monitoring system must account for potential data loss due to a variety of natural and technological causes. Modeling a natural spatial region can be problematic due to spatial nonstationarities in environmental variables, and as particular regions may be subject to specific influences at different spatial scales. Relationships between processes within these regions are often ephemeral, so models designed to represent them cannot remain static. Integrating temporal factors into this model engenders further complexity. This dissertation evaluates the use of multilayer perceptron neural network models in the context of sensor networks as a possible solution to many of these problems given their data-driven nature, their representational flexibility and straightforward fitting process. The relative importance of parameters is determined via an adaptive backpropagation training process, which converges to a best-fit model for sensing platforms to validate collected data or approximate missing readings. As conditions evolve over time such that the model can no longer adapt to changes, new models are trained to replace the old. We demonstrate accuracy results for the MLP generally on par with those of spatial kriging, but able to integrate additional physical and temporal parameters, enabling its application to any region with a collection of available data streams. Potential uses of this model might be not only to approximate missing data in the sensor field, but also to flag potentially incorrect, unusual or atypical data returned by the sensor network. Given the potential for spatial heterogeneity in a monitored phenomenon, this dissertation further explores the benefits of partitioning a space and applying individual MLP models to these partitions. A system of neural models using both spatial and temporal parameters can be envisioned such that a spatiotemporal space partitioned by k-means is modeled by k neural models with internal weightings varying individually according to the dominant processes within the assigned region of each. Evaluated on simulated and real data on surface currents of theGulf ofMaine, partitioned models show significant improved results over single global models

Generation and optimisation of real-world static and dynamic location-allocation problems with application to the telecommunications industry.

The location-allocation (LA) problem concerns the location of facilities and the allocation of demand, to minimise or maximise a particular function such as cost, profit or a measure of distance. Many formulations of LA problems have been presented in the literature to capture and study the unique aspects of real-world problems. However, some real-world aspects, such as resilience, are still lacking in the literature. Resilience ensures uninterrupted supply of demand and enhances the quality of service. Due to changes in population shift, market size, and the economic and labour markets - which often cause demand to be stochastic - a reasonable LA problem formulation should consider some aspect of future uncertainties. Almost all LA problem formulations in the literature that capture some aspect of future uncertainties fall in the domain of dynamic optimisation problems, where new facilities are located every time the environment changes. However, considering the substantial cost associated with locating a new facility, it becomes infeasible to locate facilities each time the environment changes. In this study, we propose and investigate variations of LA problem formulations. Firstly, we develop and study new LA formulations, which extend the location of facilities and the allocation of demand to add a layer of resilience. We apply the population-based incremental learning algorithm for the first time in the literature to solve the new novel LA formulations. Secondly, we propose and study a new dynamic formulation of the LA problem where facilities are opened once at the start of a defined period and are expected to be satisfactory in servicing customers' demands irrespective of changes in customer distribution. The problem is based on the idea that customers will change locations over a defined period and that these changes have to be taken into account when establishing facilities to service changing customers' distributions. Thirdly, we employ a simulation-based optimisation approach to tackle the new dynamic formulation. Owing to the high computational costs associated with simulation-based optimisation, we investigate the concept of Racing, an approach used in model selection, to reduce the high computational cost by employing the minimum number of simulations for solution selection

Efficient Decision Support Systems

This series is directed to diverse managerial professionals who are leading the transformation of individual domains by using expert information and domain knowledge to drive decision support systems (DSSs). The series offers a broad range of subjects addressed in specific areas such as health care, business management, banking, agriculture, environmental improvement, natural resource and spatial management, aviation administration, and hybrid applications of information technology aimed to interdisciplinary issues. This book series is composed of three volumes: Volume 1 consists of general concepts and methodology of DSSs; Volume 2 consists of applications of DSSs in the biomedical domain; Volume 3 consists of hybrid applications of DSSs in multidisciplinary domains. The book is shaped upon decision support strategies in the new infrastructure that assists the readers in full use of the creative technology to manipulate input data and to transform information into useful decisions for decision makers

Predicting the Effects of Decentralization on the Reliability, Resilience, and Stability of Wastewater Treatment Systems Using Generalized Linear Models

There is growing interest in decentralized and cluster-scale wastewater treatment, but knowledge of the effects of decentralization on treatment performance and by extension surface water quality is limited. This research demonstrates a method for using Generalized Linear Models to quantify the effects of facility size and capacity utilization on effluent BOD, TSS, and ammonia discharges from individual facilities as well as the aggregate of networks of facilities. Small and overloaded facilities have more frequent and longer permit violations. However, by dispersing the risk of violations across many facilities, decentralized networks have less variability than centralized networks of equivalent capacity and thus have fewer extreme events. By providing a method for prediction of typical treatment performance as well as the frequency and magnitude of variations, this research provides a valuable tool for wastewater managers considering decentralized treatment

Revised parameter estimation methods for the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model

In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data

International Conference of Territorial Intelligence, Alba Iulia 2006. Vol.1, Papers on region, identity and sustainable development (deliverable 12 of caENTI, project funded under FP6 research program of the European Union), Aeternitas, Alba Iulia, 2007

GIRARDOT J.-J., PASCARU M., ILEANA I., 2007A.deliverable 12 of caENTIThese acts gather the communications of the International Conference of Territorial Intelligence that took place in ALBA IULIA in Romania, from September, the 20th to September, the 22nd 2006. This conference was the fourth conference of territorial intelligence, but the conference of ALBA IULIA is the first one that took place in the CAENTI, Coordination Action of the European Network of Territorial Intelligence, framework. Consequently, it has a particular organization. A part is devoted to the presentation of the CAENTI research activities and of their prospects. The CAENTI specific communications are published in another volume