Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades

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Attribution of satellite-observed vegetation trends in a hyper-arid region of the Heihe River basin, Western China

Terrestrial vegetation dynamics are closely influenced by both climate and by both climate and by land use and/or land cover change (LULCC) caused by human activities. Both can change over time in a monotonic way and it can be difficult to separate the effects of climate change from LULCC on vegetation. Here we attempt to attribute trends in the fractional green vegetation cover to climate variability and to human activity in Ejina Region, a hyper-arid landlocked region in northwest China. This region is dominated by extensive deserts with relatively small areas of irrigation located along the major water courses as is typical throughout much of Central Asia. Variations of fractional vegetation cover from 2000 to 2012 were determined using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index data with 250 m spatial resolution over 16-day intervals. We found that the fractional vegetation cover in this hyper-arid region is very low but that the mean growing season vegetation cover has increased from 3.4 % in 2000 to 4.5 % in 2012. The largest contribution to the overall greening was due to changes in green vegetation cover of the extensive desert areas with a smaller contribution due to changes in the area of irrigated land. Comprehensive analysis with different precipitation data sources found that the greening of the desert was associated with increases in regional precipitation. We further report that the area of land irrigated each year can be predicted using the runoff gauged 1 year earlier. Taken together, water availability both from precipitation in the desert and runoff inflow for the irrigation agricultural lands can explain at least 52 % of the total variance in regional vegetation cover from 2000 to 2010. The results demonstrate that it is possible to separate the satellite-observed changes in green vegetation cover into components due to climate and human modifications. Such results inform management on the implications for water allocation between oases in the middle and lower reaches and for water management in the Ejina oasis

Ecohydrology in water-limited environment using quantitative remote sensing - the Heihe River basin (China) case

Water-limited environments exist on all continents of the globe and they cover more than 30% of the Earth’s land surface. The eco-environments of these regions tend to be fragile and they are changing in a dramatic way through processes like land desertification, shrinking of oases, groundwater depletion, and soil erosion. These are either human induced or results of a changing climate. Implications of these changes for both the regional hydrologic cycle and the vegetation have been documented. Since these changes occur over a wide range of scales in space and time, remote sensing methods are needed to monitor the land surface characteristics, to observe changes in vegetation and hydrological states, and to compare these with predictions from hydrological models. It is widely accepted that remote sensing methods offer the ability to acquire spatially continuous measurements over large areas. Remote sensing can also help to visualize complex processes because the spatial data can be captured regularly over time. China is one of several countries with large arid and semi-arid areas. The Heihe River basin, situated in the arid inland of northwestern China, is one of the areas severely affected by ecoenvironmental degradation and recovery. The problem of the degraded environment is due to overexploitation of surface and ground water leading to shrinking of oases, including the decline and death of natural vegetation, and the lowering of the groundwater table. Exhaustive (over-)use of water resources is the main cause of land degradation in the lower reaches of the basin, called the Ejina oasis. The whole Heihe River basin is therefore selected as study area in this thesis to analyze the long-term eco-environmental changes. What happens in this river basin is likely to have a growing influence on regional hydrological cycles, even affecting human life. Effective management of eco-environmental problems in this critical zone of water-limited conditions will provide scientific evidence for protecting and improving the eco-environment in these Chinese northwestern arid regions, eventually resulting in land improvement. Studies on quantifying the relationship between the vegetation and the water resources are a critical step in developing an ecohydrological approach to resources management in order to minimize environmental degradation. Remote sensing measurements can help us to better understand the effects of changes in water management on hydrological processes and their subsequent feedback to the eco-environment at the regional scale. Remote sensing methods can also provide information to quantify heterogeneity and change at a large scale. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to develop a methodology for the quantitative assessment of eco-environmental changes at a large scale in arid regions by integrating remote sensing methods in ecohydrological approaches. Chapter 1 outlines the significance of quantitative assessment of eco-environmental changes using remote sensing methods and applying them for ecohydrology in northwestern China, resulting in the specific research objectives of this thesis. Chapter 2 quantifies both the vertical and horizontal distribution of vegetation in the Qilian Mountains area, representing the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin, based on MODIS NDVI images from the year 2000 - 2006. Our analysis reveals that elevation and aspect are two important impact factors for the vertical distribution of vegetation in a mountainous area. The NDVI increases with the elevation and reaches a maximum value at a certain elevation threshold, and then decreases as the elevation increases beyond this threshold. The optimal vegetation growth is on the shady side of the mountains because of less evapotranspiration. The best combination of temperature and precipitation is assessed providing good conditions for vegetation growth. Chapter 3 presents an efficient method to estimate the regional annual evapotranspiration (ET) based on the SEBS algorithm (Surface Energy Balance System) in the Zhangye basin, representing the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin. The method proposed is a combination of the daily SEBS results and data collected by meteorological stations. The result shows that the annual ET increased gradually during the period 1990-2004 and the main impact factor on the long-term increase of annual ET was the vegetation change. The accuracy of the ET result is validated using a water balance for the whole watershed and the validation reveals that the SEBS algorithm can be used to effectively estimate annual ET in the Zhangye basin. Chapter 4 establishes the quantitative relationship between the runoff of the Heihe River and the long-term vegetation change of the Ejina oasis, located in the lower reaches of the Heihe River. In this part, two time periods are distinguished corresponding to before and after the implementation of a new water allocation scheme in the Heihe River basin. The GIMMS NDVI and MODIS NDVI data sets are used to quantify the long-term change of the oasis vegetation in the first period 1989-2002 and the second period 2000-2006, respectively. The vegetation change shows a decreasing trend from 1989 to 2002 and an increasing trend between 2000 and 2006. Good relation between the runoff of the river and the vegetation growth are found at both stages and the time lag of the observed hysteresis effect of the runoff of the river on the oasis vegetation is one year. In addition, the yearly smallest water amount which sustains the demand of the eco-environment of the Ejina area is estimated to be 4×108 m3 based on MODIS images. Chapter 5 explores a method to quantify the effect of the groundwater depth on the vegetation growth in the year 2000 in the oasis area by combining MODIS NDVI with groundwater observation data. The result demonstrates that the groundwater depth suitable for vegetation growth in this region ranges from 2.8 to 5 m, depending on species composition. Hardly any vegetation growth occurs when the groundwater depth is below 5 m because the rooting depth of the occurring species is limited and cannot maintain adequate water supplies to their canopies when the water depth is below 5 m. The situation changes after implementation of the new water allocation scheme since 2000. The mean NDVI increased and the annual conversion of bare land into vegetated land is about 38 km2 per year during the period 2000 – 2008. It reflects a potential recovery of the eco-environment of the Ejina area. Chapter 6 comprises the main conclusions and the outlook for possible improvements in future research. The main contribution of this study is the successful integration of remote sensing with ecohydrology in quantifying the relationship between water resources and vegetation occurrence at large scale. It provides a methodology to evaluate the long-term vegetation change and the water resources impact using remote sensing data in water-limited areas. The approach of vegetation dynamics, runoff and groundwater impacts presented in this thesis serves as a sound foundation for predicting the effects of future environmental changes. <br/

Assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of green and blue water flows under natural conditions in inland river basins in Northwest China

In arid and semi-arid regions freshwater resources have become scarcer with increasing demands from socioeconomic development and population growth. Until recently, water research and management has maily focused on blue water but ignored green water. Furthermore, in data poor regions hydrological low under natural conditions are poorly characterised but are a prerequisite to inform future water resources management. Here we report on spatial and temporal patterns of both blue and green water flows that can be expected under natural conditions as simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Heihe river basin, the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China. Calibration ad validation at two hydrological stations show good performance of the SWAT model in modelling hydrological processes. The total green and blue water flows were 22.05-25.51 billion m3 in the 2000s for the Heihe river basin. Blue water flows are larger in upstream sub-basins than in downstream sub-basins mainly due to high precipitation and a large amount of snow and melting water in upstream. Green water flows are distributed more homogeneously among different sub-basins. The green water coefficient was 87%-89% in the 2000s for the entire river basin, varying from around 80%90% in up-and mid-stream sub-basins to above 90% in downstream sub-basins. This is much higher than reported green water coefficients in many other river basins. The spatial patterns of green water coefficients were closely linked to dominant land covers (e.g. snow cover upstream and desert downstream) and climate conditions (e.g. high precipitation upstream and low precipitation downstream). There are no clear consistent historical trends of change in green and blue water flows and the green water coefficient at both the river basin and sub-basin levels. This study provides insights into green and blue water endowments under natural conditions for the entire Heihe river basin at the sub-basin level. The results are helpful to benchmark the natural flows of water in the basin as part of improved water resources management in the inland river basins of China

Environmental burdens of groundwater extraction for irrigation over an inland river basin in Northwest China

Crop production is expected to increase by more than 50% to meet the demand of population growth in China in 2050 (FAO, 2017). Crop production in North China largely depends on irrigation, which is mainly from groundwater in Northwest China. Over-extraction of groundwater is decreasing groundwater levels, and threatening the fragile ecological systems of arid regions. How groundwater levels will change in order to meet the irrigation water requirement in Northwest China has not been extensively investigated to evaluate sustainability of agriculture and the cost to maintain groundwater levels. Here, we examine the dynamic relations between groundwater levels and the amount of irrigation water, by employing the Variable Infiltration Capacity model and an irrigation scheme, for the last three decades in Heihe River basin of China. The results show that on the average about 1.86 m decline of groundwater is attributable to the irrigation water consumption for the farmland area in Heihe River over the past three decades. In the scenario of ceasing irrigation activities, the groundwater level will be prevented to further decline about 3.06±0.4m under the future climate scenarios till 2050, but at the cost of crop production valued 64.2±8.4 billion CNY. Effective water-saving measures and strategies are expected to adopt to maintain both groundwater levels and agricultural productivity for the coming decades

Forest Management and Water Resources in the Anthropocene

Decades of research has provided a depth of understanding on the relationships among forests and water, and how these relationships change in response to climate variability, disturbance, and forest management. This understanding has facilitated a strong predictive capacity and the development of best management practices to protect water resources with active management. Despite this understanding, the rapid pace of changes in climate, disturbance regimes, invasive species, human population growth, and land use expected in the 21st century is likely to create substantial challenges for watershed management that may require new approaches, models, and best management practices. These challenges are likely to be complex and large scale, involving a combination of direct effects and indirect biophysical watershed responses, as well as socioeconomic impacts and feedbacks. We explore the complex relationships between forests and water in a rapidly changing environment, examine the trade-offs and conflicts between water and other resources, and examine new management approaches for sustaining water resources in the future

Uncertainties in classification system conversion and an analysis of inconsistencies in global land cover products

In this study, using the common classification systems of IGBP-17, IGBP-9, IPCC-5 and TC (vegetation, wetlands and others only), we studied spatial and areal inconsistencies in the three most recent multi-resource land cover products in a complex mountain-oasis-desert system and quantitatively discussed the uncertainties in classification system conversion. This is the first study to compare these products based on terrain and to quantitatively study the uncertainties in classification system conversion. The inconsistencies and uncertainties decreased from high to low levels of aggregation (IGBP-17 to TC) and from mountain to desert areas, indicating that the inconsistencies are not only influenced by the level of thematic detail and landscape complexity but also related to the conversion uncertainties. The overall areal inconsistency in the comparison of the FROM-GLC and GlobCover 2009 datasets is the smallest among the three pairs, but the smallest overall spatial inconsistency was observed between the FROM-GLC and MODISLC. The GlobCover 2009 had the largest conversion uncertainties due to mosaic land cover definition, with values up to 23.9%, 9.68% and 0.11% in mountainous, oasis and desert areas, respectively. The FROM-GLC had the smallest inconsistency, with values less than 4.58%, 1.89% and 1.2% in corresponding areas. Because the FROM-GLC dataset uses a hierarchical classification scheme with explicit attribution from the second level to the first, this system is suggested for producers of map land cover products in the future