Wage Equations, Wage Curves and All That

This paper is concerned with the relationship between wages and unemployment. Using UK regions and individuals as the basis for our analysis, the following questions are investigated. First, is the wage equation a relationship between unemployment and wages or wage changes? Second, can we identify the relationship completely by looking at regional wages and regional unemployment or do regional wages depend on aggregate unemployment as well? Third, are wages influenced only by the current state of the labour market or do contracts lead to wages depending on labour market conditions in the last boom or upon entry into the job? Finally is the wage-unemployment relationship influenced by inflation, competition or the housing market?Wages, unemployment

Microfoundations of the Wage Inflation in the Czech Republic

We investigate whether microfoundations might increase the predictive power of macroeconomic models of wage inflation. By comparing past predictions to observed values, we find that the Phillips curve with the average unemployment rate in districts with prevalently low unemployment rates delivers more accurate predictions of aggregated wage inflation than the Phillips curve with the overall unemployment rate. The identification of specific groups of districts is based on our estimates of the wage curve at the regional level, i.e. the relationship between the regional level of wages and regional unemployment. Real wages adjust to changes in local unemployment in districts with low unemployment rates, a low share of public sector employment, and for the short-term unemployed. On the other hand, the welfare system might represent a floor preventing downward wage adjustments in districts with high unemployment rates and for the long-term unemployed. In the public sector, wages are negotiated at the economy-wide level, while the variance in regional unemployment does not play a role.Panel data, partial adjustment model, Phillips curve, unemployment, wage curve.

U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment

Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Regional business cycles do not move in lockstep, and greater dispersion among regions can affect estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. There is microeconomic evidence that employers are more reluctant to cut wages than they are to raise them. Accordingly, the relationship between wage inflation and vacancies is convex: An increase in vacancies raises wage inflation at an increasing rate. The authors’ empirical results are consistent with this and indicate that, if all else had remained constant, the reduction in the dispersion of regional unemployment rates between 1982 and 2000 would have meant a 2-percentage-point drop in the natural rate of aggregate unemployment.Unemployment ; Regional economics

U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment

Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Regional business cycles do not move in lockstep and greater dispersion among regions can affect estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. There is microeconomic evidence that employers are more reluctant to cut wages than they are to raise them. Accordingly, this means that the relationship between wage inflation and vacancies is convex: an increase in vacancies raises wage inflation at an increasing rate. Our empirical results are consistent with this and indicate that if all else had remained constant, the reduction in the dispersion of regional unemployment rates between 1982 and 2000 would have meant a two-percentage point drop in the natural rate of aggregate unemployment.Unemployment ; Regional economics

PENGARUH PDRB, TINGKAT INFLASI, DAN UPAH MINIMUM PROVINSI TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH PADA TAHUN 1997-2015

The unemployment rate is one important indicator in measuring the progress of a country, especially among developing countries. The problem of unemployment has existed since antiquity and still can not be overcome by Indonesia. Therefore, this study discusses how the GDP, inflation rate, and Province Minimum Wage affect open unemployment rate in Central Java. Unemployment problem is caused by the limit of supply of job fields, while the population continues to grow every single year. This problem causes the unemployment problem is difficult to resolve. In this study, the analytical method is multiple regression analysis (OLS). Sources of data in this study are obtained from secondary data in the period 1997 to 2015 which comes from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). Then the data is processed by using application software eviews 9.0. The results showed that simultaneously, the Gross Regional Domestic Product, Inflastion rate, and also the Province Minimum Wage affect the open unemployment rate significantly in Central Java. Partially, the Gross Regional Domestic Product has a positive and significant effect to open unemployment rate in Central Java, the inflation rate has no significant effect to open unemployment rate in Central Java, and Province Minimum Wage has negative and significant effect to open unemployment rate in Central Java

Anatomy of the Czech Labour Market:From Over-Employment to Under-Employment in Ten Years?

In this volume we investigate the macroeconomic aspects of labour market behaviour and its microfoundations. In the first part we deal with aggregate labour market trends and issues relevant to macroeconomic policy. The second part analyses in more detail labour flexibility, namely labour market flows, long-term unemployment and labour force deprivation. The third part addresses wage flexibility and relative wages, with special attention paid to regional unemployment elasticity of wages and returns to education. Worsening labour market performance can be seen especially in a rising NAIRU, declining labour mobility, labour deprivation due to long-term unemployment, skill mismatch and emerging signs of inflexibility in wage structures. Our conclusions are of use for both macroeconomic and labour market policies, signalling, among other messages, limitations on potential output growth stemming from deteriorated labour market performance and a need for institutional and structural changes rather than counter-cyclical policies to solve the unemployment problem in the Czech Republic.Employment, labour flows, labour force marginalisation, NAIRU, returns to education, unemployment, wage curve, wage differentials, wage inflation.

Analisis Determinan Tingkat Pengangguran Se Eks Karesidenan Surakarta Di Jawa Tengah Tahun 1999- 2013

This research aimed to analyze the effect of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, the minimum of wage, population and unemployment rates throughout the year 1999-2013 in Surakarta Residency. The analysis technique used in this study is a panel data regression. It used to determine the factors that affect the level of unemployment in Surakarta Residency along 1999-2013. Data panel is a combination of cross section that includes seven in Surakarta and time series during 15 years from 1999-2013. The results showed that the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) is a panel data regression model is most appropriate. Based on simultaneous test, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, the minimum of wage, and the number of population simultaneously have an impact on the unemployment rate. Based on the effect validity test, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) significant negative effect on the unemployment rate, the minimum wage and population has a significant positive effect on the unemployment rate, while inflation does not have a significant effect on the unemployment rate in Surakarta Residency from 1999-2013

PENGARUH MIGRASI, INFLASI, DAN UPAH MINIMUM REGIONAL (UMR) TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN KOTA BANDA ACEH

ABSTRAKJudul : Pengaruh Migrasi, Inflasi, Upah Minimum Regional (UMR) terhadap Pengangguran di Kota Banda AcehNama: Dwika Ashifa PutriNIM: 140110101046Fak./ Jurusan: Ekonomi dan Bisnis/ Ekonomi PembangunanDosen Pembimbing: Ikhsan S.E., M.APenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh migrasi, inflasi, dan upah minimum regional terhadap pengangguran di Kota Banda Aceh. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series dari tahun 2000-2016, data tersebut dianalisis dengan model regresi linear berganda. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa variabel migrasi keluar dan migrasi masuk berpengaruh negatif terhadap pengangguran, variabel inflasi dan upah minimum regional mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap pengangguran. Variabel migrasi keluar, inflasi, dan upah minimum regional mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pengangguran, sedangkan variabel migrasi masuk tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pengangguran. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian F hitung variabel migrasi masuk, migrasi keluar, inflasi dan upah minimum regional secara bersama-sama memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pengangguran di Kota Banda Aceh. Kata Kunci: Migrasi, Inflasi, Upah Minimum Regional, PengangguranABSTRACTTitle: The Effect of Migration, Inflation, and Regional Minimum Wage on Unemployment in Banda Aceh CityStudent Name: Dwika Ashifa PutriStudent ID: 1401101010146Faculty/ Department: Economics and Business/ Development EconomicsAcademic Advisor: Ikhsan S.E., M.AThis research aims to determine the effect of migration, inflation, and regional minimum wages on unemployment in Banda Aceh. the data used in this research are time series data from 2000-2016, the data were analyzed with multiple linear regression models. Regression result show that the variables of out-migration and in-migration have a negative effect on unemployment, inflation and regional minimum wages have a positive effect on unemployment. The variable of out-migration. Inflation, and regional minimum wages have a significant effect on unemployment, while the variable in-migration does not have a significant effect on unemployment. Based on the result of the F test, the variables of in-migration, out-migration, inflation, and regional minimum wages together have a significant effect on unemployment in Banda Aceh.Keywords: Migration, Inflation, Minimum Wage, Unemploymen

Euroland: New conditions for economic policy

The cyclical situation at the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is favorable: The upswing in Euroland has firmed, unemployment is going down, and inflation is low. However, economic growth outside the new currency area has weakened significantly during 1998, and fears are mounting that the crises in various regions of the world economy could endanger the current expansion in Euroland. Against this background, the significance of external conditions for the business cycle in Euroland — as well as the regional structure of exports — is analyzed. An important issue for an adequate design of economic policy is to what extent capacities in Euroland are currently utilized and whether cyclical unemployment is still significant. In addition, it is important to know whether the business cycles in the individual countries converge or not. In light of the findings from these analyses, the course of monetary, fiscal, and wage policy is evaluated in order to assess the outlook for Euroland until the end of 1999. --