Refining complexity analyses in planning by exploiting the exponential time hypothesis

The use of computational complexity in planning, and in AI in general, has always been a disputed topic. A major problem with ordinary worst-case analyses is that they do not provide any quantitative information: they do not tell us much about the running time of concrete algorithms, nor do they tell us much about the running time of optimal algorithms. We address problems like this by presenting results based on the exponential time hypothesis (ETH), which is a widely accepted hypothesis concerning the time complexity of 3-SAT. By using this approach, we provide, for instance, almost matching upper and lower bounds onthe time complexity of propositional planning.Funding Agencies|National Graduate School in Computer Science (CUGS), Sweden; Swedish Research Council (VR) [621-2014-4086]</p

Algorithms and Conditional Lower Bounds for Planning Problems

We consider planning problems for graphs, Markov decision processes (MDPs), and games on graphs. While graphs represent the most basic planning model, MDPs represent interaction with nature and games on graphs represent interaction with an adversarial environment. We consider two planning problems where there are k different target sets, and the problems are as follows: (a) the coverage problem asks whether there is a plan for each individual target set, and (b) the sequential target reachability problem asks whether the targets can be reached in sequence. For the coverage problem, we present a linear-time algorithm for graphs and quadratic conditional lower bound for MDPs and games on graphs. For the sequential target problem, we present a linear-time algorithm for graphs, a sub-quadratic algorithm for MDPs, and a quadratic conditional lower bound for games on graphs. Our results with conditional lower bounds establish (i) model-separation results showing that for the coverage problem MDPs and games on graphs are harder than graphs and for the sequential reachability problem games on graphs are harder than MDPs and graphs; (ii) objective-separation results showing that for MDPs the coverage problem is harder than the sequential target problem.Comment: Accepted at ICAPS'1

Evolutionary robotics and neuroscience

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Accelerating Science: A Computing Research Agenda

The emergence of "big data" offers unprecedented opportunities for not only accelerating scientific advances but also enabling new modes of discovery. Scientific progress in many disciplines is increasingly enabled by our ability to examine natural phenomena through the computational lens, i.e., using algorithmic or information processing abstractions of the underlying processes; and our ability to acquire, share, integrate and analyze disparate types of data. However, there is a huge gap between our ability to acquire, store, and process data and our ability to make effective use of the data to advance discovery. Despite successful automation of routine aspects of data management and analytics, most elements of the scientific process currently require considerable human expertise and effort. Accelerating science to keep pace with the rate of data acquisition and data processing calls for the development of algorithmic or information processing abstractions, coupled with formal methods and tools for modeling and simulation of natural processes as well as major innovations in cognitive tools for scientists, i.e., computational tools that leverage and extend the reach of human intellect, and partner with humans on a broad range of tasks in scientific discovery (e.g., identifying, prioritizing formulating questions, designing, prioritizing and executing experiments designed to answer a chosen question, drawing inferences and evaluating the results, and formulating new questions, in a closed-loop fashion). This calls for concerted research agenda aimed at: Development, analysis, integration, sharing, and simulation of algorithmic or information processing abstractions of natural processes, coupled with formal methods and tools for their analyses and simulation; Innovations in cognitive tools that augment and extend human intellect and partner with humans in all aspects of science.Comment: Computing Community Consortium (CCC) white paper, 17 page

The Hypotheses Testing Method for Evaluation of Startup Projects

This paper suggests new perspective to evaluating innovation projects and understanding the nature of startup risks. Author consider five principal hypotheses that underlie every innovative project that comprise a bunch of respective assumptions to manage startup risks in a proactive manner. Suggested approach spots the light on a project’s uncertainties and risks, embedded investment and managerial options, and enables more comprehensive and accurate evaluation of innovation. The Hypotheses Testing Method enables to estimate risks and attractiveness of a startup project in a clear and fast manner. It replaces unclear traditional techniques like NPV and DCF, avoiding heavy cash flow modelling

Formally Verified Compositional Algorithms for Factored Transition Systems

Artificial Intelligence (AI) planning and model checking are two disciplines that found wide practical applications. It is often the case that a problem in those two fields concerns a transition system whose behaviour can be encoded in a digraph that models the system's state space. However, due to the very large size of state spaces of realistic systems, they are compactly represented as propositionally factored transition systems. These representations have the advantage of being exponentially smaller than the state space of the represented system. Many problems in AI~planning and model checking involve questions about state spaces, which correspond to graph theoretic questions on digraphs modelling the state spaces. However, existing techniques to answer those graph theoretic questions effectively require, in the worst case, constructing the digraph that models the state space, by expanding the propositionally factored representation of the syste\ m. This is not practical, if not impossible, in many cases because of the state space size compared to the factored representation. One common approach that is used to avoid constructing the state space is the compositional approach, where only smaller abstractions of the system at hand are processed and the given problem (e.g. reachability) is solved for them. Then, a solution for the problem on the concrete system is derived from the solutions of the problem on the abstract systems. The motivation of this approach is that, in the worst case, one need only construct the state spaces of the abstractions which can be exponentially smaller than the state space of the concrete system. We study the application of the compositional approach to two fundamental problems on transition systems: upper-bounding the topological properties (e.g. the largest distance between any two states, i.e. the diameter) of the state spa\ ce, and computing reachability between states. We provide new compositional algorithms to solve both problems by exploiting different structures of the given system. In addition to the use of an existing abstraction (usually referred to as projection) based on removing state space variables, we develop two new abstractions for use within our compositional algorithms. One of the new abstractions is also based on state variables, while the other is based on assignments to state variables. We theoretically and experimentally show that our new compositional algorithms improve the state-of-the-art in solving both problems, upper-bounding state space topological parameters and reachability. We designed the algorithms as well as formally verified them with the aid of an interactive theorem prover. This is the first application that we are aware of, for such a theorem prover based methodology to the design of new algorithms in either AI~planning or model checking

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version