Autoregressive time series prediction by means of fuzzy inference systems using nonparametric residual variance estimation

We propose an automatic methodology framework for short- and long-term prediction of time series by means of fuzzy inference systems. In this methodology, fuzzy techniques and statistical techniques for nonparametric residual variance estimation are combined in order to build autoregressive predictive models implemented as fuzzy inference systems. Nonparametric residual variance estimation plays a key role in driving the identification and learning procedures. Concrete criteria and procedures within the proposed methodology framework are applied to a number of time series prediction problems. The learn from examples method introduced by Wang and Mendel (W&M) is used for identification. The Levenberg–Marquardt (L–M) optimization method is then applied for tuning. The W&M method produces compact and potentially accurate inference systems when applied after a proper variable selection stage. The L–M method yields the best compromise between accuracy and interpretability of results, among a set of alternatives. Delta test based residual variance estimations are used in order to select the best subset of inputs to the fuzzy inference systems as well as the number of linguistic labels for the inputs. Experiments on a diverse set of time series prediction benchmarks are compared against least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), and k-NN based autoregressors. The advantages of the proposed methodology are shown in terms of linguistic interpretability, generalization capability and computational cost. Furthermore, fuzzy models are shown to be consistently more accurate for prediction in the case of time series coming from real-world applications.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TEC2008-04920Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-03674, IAC07-I-0205:33080, IAC08-II-3347:5626

Evolving Ensemble Fuzzy Classifier

The concept of ensemble learning offers a promising avenue in learning from data streams under complex environments because it addresses the bias and variance dilemma better than its single model counterpart and features a reconfigurable structure, which is well suited to the given context. While various extensions of ensemble learning for mining non-stationary data streams can be found in the literature, most of them are crafted under a static base classifier and revisits preceding samples in the sliding window for a retraining step. This feature causes computationally prohibitive complexity and is not flexible enough to cope with rapidly changing environments. Their complexities are often demanding because it involves a large collection of offline classifiers due to the absence of structural complexities reduction mechanisms and lack of an online feature selection mechanism. A novel evolving ensemble classifier, namely Parsimonious Ensemble pENsemble, is proposed in this paper. pENsemble differs from existing architectures in the fact that it is built upon an evolving classifier from data streams, termed Parsimonious Classifier pClass. pENsemble is equipped by an ensemble pruning mechanism, which estimates a localized generalization error of a base classifier. A dynamic online feature selection scenario is integrated into the pENsemble. This method allows for dynamic selection and deselection of input features on the fly. pENsemble adopts a dynamic ensemble structure to output a final classification decision where it features a novel drift detection scenario to grow the ensemble structure. The efficacy of the pENsemble has been numerically demonstrated through rigorous numerical studies with dynamic and evolving data streams where it delivers the most encouraging performance in attaining a tradeoff between accuracy and complexity.Comment: this paper has been published by IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy System

EMPATH: A Neural Network that Categorizes Facial Expressions

There are two competing theories of facial expression recognition. Some researchers have suggested that it is an example of "categorical perception." In this view, expression categories are considered to be discrete entities with sharp boundaries, and discrimination of nearby pairs of expressive faces is enhanced near those boundaries. Other researchers, however, suggest that facial expression perception is more graded and that facial expressions are best thought of as points in a continuous, low-dimensional space, where, for instance, "surprise" expressions lie between "happiness" and "fear" expressions due to their perceptual similarity. In this article, we show that a simple yet biologically plausible neural network model, trained to classify facial expressions into six basic emotions, predicts data used to support both of these theories. Without any parameter tuning, the model matches a variety of psychological data on categorization, similarity, reaction times, discrimination, and recognition difficulty, both qualitatively and quantitatively. We thus explain many of the seemingly complex psychological phenomena related to facial expression perception as natural consequences of the tasks' implementations in the brain

Optimal control design for robust fuzzy friction compensation in a robot joint

This paper presents a methodology for the compensation of nonlinear friction in a robot joint structure based on a fuzzy local modeling technique. To enhance the tracking performance of the robot joint, a dynamic model is derived from the local physical properties of friction. The model is the basis of a precompensator taking into account the dynamics of the overall corrected system by means of a minor loop. The proposed structure does not claim to faithfully reproduce complex phenomena driven by friction. However, the linearity of the local models simplifies the design and implementation of the observer, and its estimation capabilities are improved by the nonlinear integral gain. The controller can then be robustly synthesized using linear matrix inequalities to cancel the effects of inexact friction compensation. Experimental tests conducted on a robot joint with a high level of friction demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy observer-based control strategy for tracking system trajectories when operating in zero-velocity regions and during motion reversals

A survey on utilization of data mining approaches for dermatological (skin) diseases prediction

Due to recent technology advances, large volumes of medical data is obtained. These data contain valuable information. Therefore data mining techniques can be used to extract useful patterns. This paper is intended to introduce data mining and its various techniques and a survey of the available literature on medical data mining. We emphasize mainly on the application of data mining on skin diseases. A categorization has been provided based on the different data mining techniques. The utility of the various data mining methodologies is highlighted. Generally association mining is suitable for extracting rules. It has been used especially in cancer diagnosis. Classification is a robust method in medical mining. In this paper, we have summarized the different uses of classification in dermatology. It is one of the most important methods for diagnosis of erythemato-squamous diseases. There are different methods like Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms and fuzzy classifiaction in this topic. Clustering is a useful method in medical images mining. The purpose of clustering techniques is to find a structure for the given data by finding similarities between data according to data characteristics. Clustering has some applications in dermatology. Besides introducing different mining methods, we have investigated some challenges which exist in mining skin data

Training Echo State Networks with Regularization through Dimensionality Reduction

In this paper we introduce a new framework to train an Echo State Network to predict real valued time-series. The method consists in projecting the output of the internal layer of the network on a space with lower dimensionality, before training the output layer to learn the target task. Notably, we enforce a regularization constraint that leads to better generalization capabilities. We evaluate the performances of our approach on several benchmark tests, using different techniques to train the readout of the network, achieving superior predictive performance when using the proposed framework. Finally, we provide an insight on the effectiveness of the implemented mechanics through a visualization of the trajectory in the phase space and relying on the methodologies of nonlinear time-series analysis. By applying our method on well known chaotic systems, we provide evidence that the lower dimensional embedding retains the dynamical properties of the underlying system better than the full-dimensional internal states of the network

Applications of Soft Computing in Mobile and Wireless Communications

Soft computing is a synergistic combination of artificial intelligence methodologies to model and solve real world problems that are either impossible or too difficult to model mathematically. Furthermore, the use of conventional modeling techniques demands rigor, precision and certainty, which carry computational cost. On the other hand, soft computing utilizes computation, reasoning and inference to reduce computational cost by exploiting tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty, partial truth and approximation. In addition to computational cost savings, soft computing is an excellent platform for autonomic computing, owing to its roots in artificial intelligence. Wireless communication networks are associated with much uncertainty and imprecision due to a number of stochastic processes such as escalating number of access points, constantly changing propagation channels, sudden variations in network load and random mobility of users. This reality has fuelled numerous applications of soft computing techniques in mobile and wireless communications. This paper reviews various applications of the core soft computing methodologies in mobile and wireless communications