Real-time crash prediction models: State-of-the-art, design pathways and ubiquitous requirements

Proactive traffic safety management systems can monitor traffic conditions in real-time, identify the formation of unsafe traffic dynamics, and implement suitable interventions to bring unsafe conditions back to normal traffic situations. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, sensor fusion and algorithms have brought about the introduction of a proactive safety management system closer to reality. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to have a reliable crash prediction model that takes real-time traffic data as input and evaluates their association with crash risk. Since the early 21st century, several studies have focused on developing such models. Although the idea has considerably matured over time, the endeavours have been quite discrete and fragmented at best because the fundamental aspects of the overall modelling approach substantially vary. Therefore, a number of transitional challenges have to be identified and subsequently addressed before a ubiquitous proactive safety management system can be formulated, designed and implemented in real-world scenarios. This manuscript conducts a comprehensive review of existing real-time crash prediction models with the aim of illustrating the state-of-the-art and systematically synthesizing the thoughts presented in existing studies in order to facilitate its translation from an idea into a ready to use technology. Towards that journey, it conducts a systematic review by applying various text mining methods and topic modelling. Based on the findings, this paper ascertains the development pathways followed in various studies, formulates the ubiquitous design requirements of such models from existing studies and knowledge of similar systems. Finally, this study evaluates the universality and design compatibility of existing models. This paper is, therefore, expected to serve as a one stop knowledge source for facilitating a faster transition from the idea of real-time crash prediction models to a real-world operational proactive traffic safety management system

Safety, Operational, and Design Analyses of Managed Toll and Connected Vehicles\u27 Lanes

Managed lanes (MLs) have been implemented as a vital strategy for traffic management and traffic safety improvement. The majority of previous studies involving MLs have explored a limited scope of the impact of the MLs segments as a whole, without considering the safety and operational effects of the access design. Also, there are limited studies that investigated the effect of connected vehicles (CVs) on managed lanes. Hence, this study has two main objectives: (1) the first objective is achieved by determining the optimal managed lanes access design, including accessibility level and weaving distance for an at-grade access design. (2) the second objective is to study the effects of applying CVs and CV lanes on the MLs network. Several scenarios were tested using microscopic traffic simulation to determine the optimal access design while taking into consideration accessibility levels and weaving lengths. Both safety (e.g., standard deviation of speed, time-to-collision, and conflict rate) and operational (e.g., level of service, average speed, average delay) performance measures were included in the analyses. For the first objective, the results suggested that one accessibility level is the optimal option for the 9-mile network. A weaving length between 1,000 feet to 1,400 feet per lane change was suggested based on the safety analysis. From the operational perspective, a weaving length between 1,000 feet and 2,000 feet per lane change was recommended. The findings also suggested that MPR% between 10% and 30% was recommended when the CVs are only allowed in MLs. When increasing the number of MLs, the MPR% could be improved to reach 70%. Lastly, the findings proposed that MPR% of 100% could be achieved by allowing the CVs to use all the lanes in the network

Analysis of Driving Behavior at Expressway Toll Plazas using Driving Simulator

The objective of this study is to analyze the driving behavior at toll plazas by examining multiple scenarios using a driving simulator to study the effect of different options including different path decisions, various signs, arrow markings, traffic conditions, and extending auxiliary lanes before and after the toll plaza on the driving behavior. Also, this study focuses on investigating the effect of drivers\u27 characteristics on the dangerous driving behavior (e.g. speed variation, sudden lane change, drivers\u27 confusion). Safety and efficiency are the fundamental goals that transportation engineering is always seeking for the design of highways. Transportation agencies have a crucial challenging task to accomplish traffic safety, particularly at the locations that have been identified as crash hotspots. In fact, toll plaza locations are one of the most critical and challenging areas that expressway agencies have to pay attention to because of the increasing traffic crashes over the past years near toll plazas. Drivers are required to make many decisions at expressway toll plazas which result in drivers\u27 confusion, speed variation, and abrupt lane change maneuvers. These crucial decisions are mainly influenced by three reasons. First, the limited distance between toll plazas and the merging areas at the on-ramps before the toll plazas. In additional to the limited distance between toll plazas and the diverging areas after the toll plazas at the off-ramps. Second, it is also affected by the location and the configuration of signage and pavement markings. Third, drivers\u27 decisions are affected by the different lane configurations and tolling systems that can cause drivers\u27 confusion and stress. Nevertheless, limited studies have explored the factors that influence driving behavior and safety at toll plazas. There are three main systems of the toll plaza, the traditional mainline toll plaza (TMTP), the hybrid mainline toll plaza (HMTP), and the all-electronic toll collection (AETC). Recently, in order to improve the safety and the efficiency of the toll plazas, most of the traditional mainline toll plazas have been converted to the hybrid toll plazas or the all-electronic toll collection plazas. This study assessed driving behavior at a section, including a toll plaza on one of the main expressways in Central Florida. The toll plaza is located between a close on-ramp and a nearby off-ramp. Thus, these close distances have a significant effect on increasing driver\u27s confusion and unexpected lane change before and after the toll plaza. Driving simulator experiments were used to study the driving behavior at, before and after the toll plaza. The details of the section and the plaza were accurately replicated in the simulator. In the driving simulator experiment, Seventy-two drivers with different age groups were participated. Subsequently, each driver performed three separate scenarios out of a total of twenty-four scenarios. Seven risk indicators were extracted from the driving simulator experiment data by using MATLAB software. These variables are average speed, standard deviation of speed, standard deviation of lane deviation, acceleration rate, standard deviation of acceleration (acceleration noise), deceleration rate, and standard deviation of deceleration (braking action variation). Moreover, various scenario variables were tested in the driving simulator including different paths, signage, pavement markings, traffic condition, and extending auxiliary lanes before and after the toll plaza. Divers\u27 individual characteristics were collected from a questionnaire before the experiment. Also, drivers were filling a questionnaire after each scenario to check for simulator sickness or discomfort. Nine variables were extracted from the simulation questionnaire for representing individual characteristics including, age, gender, education level, annual income, crash experience, professional drivers, ETC-tag use, driving frequency, and novice international drivers. A series of mixed linear models with random effects to account for multiple observations from the same participant were developed to reveal the contributing factors that affect driving behavior at toll plazas. The results uncovered that all drivers who drove through the open road tolling (ORT) showed higher speed and lower speed variation, lane deviation, and acceleration noise than other drivers who navigate through the tollbooth. Also, the results revealed that providing adequate signage, and pavement markings are effective in reducing risky driving behavior at toll plazas. Drivers tend to drive with less lane deviation and acceleration noise before the toll plaza when installing arrow pavement markings. Adding dynamic message sign (DMS) at the on-ramp has a significant effect on reducing speed variation before the toll plaza. Likewise, removing the third overhead sign before the toll plaza has a considerable influence on reducing aggressive driving behavior before and after the toll plaza. This result may reflect drivers\u27 desire to feel less confusion by excessive signs and markings. Third, extending auxiliary lanes with 660 feet (0.125 miles) before or after the toll plaza have an effect on increasing the average speed and reducing the lane deviation and the speed variation at and before the toll plaza. It also has an impact on increasing the acceleration noise and the braking action variation after the toll plaza. Finally, it was found that in congested conditions, participants drive with a lower speed variation and lane deviation before the toll plaza but with a higher acceleration noise after the toll plaza. On the other hand, understanding drivers\u27 characteristics is particularly important for exploring their effect on risky driving behavior. Young drivers (18-25) and old drivers (older than 50 years) consistently showed a higher risk behavior than middle age drivers (35 to 50). Also, it was found that male drivers are riskier than female drivers at toll plazas. Drivers with high education level, drivers with high income, ETC-tag users, and drivers whose driving frequency is less than three trips per day are more cautious and tend to drive at a lower speed

Proactive Assessment of Accident Risk to Improve Safety on a System of Freeways, Research Report 11-15

This report describes the development and evaluation of real-time crash risk-assessment models for four freeway corridors: U.S. Route 101 NB (northbound) and SB (southbound) and Interstate 880 NB and SB. Crash data for these freeway segments for the 16-month period from January 2010 through April 2011 are used to link historical crash occurrences with real-time traffic patterns observed through loop-detector data. \u27The crash risk-assessment models are based on a binary classification approach (crash and non-crash outcomes), with traffic parameters measured at surrounding vehicle detection station (VDS) locations as the independent variables. The analysis techniques used in this study are logistic regression and classification trees. Prior to developing the models, some data-related issues such as data cleaning and aggregation were addressed. The modeling efforts revealed that the turbulence resulting from speed variation is significantly associated with crash risk on the U.S. 101 NB corridor. The models estimated with data from U.S. 101 NB were evaluated on the basis of their classification performance, not only on U.S. 101 NB, but also on the other three freeway segments for transferability assessment. It was found that the predictive model derived from one freeway can be readily applied to other freeways, although the classification performance decreases. The models that transfer best to other roadways were determined to be those that use the least number of VDSs–that is, those that use one upstream or downstream station rather than two or three.\ The classification accuracy of the models is discussed in terms of how the models can be used for real-time crash risk assessment. The models can be applied to developing and testing variable speed limits (VSLs) and ramp-metering strategies that proactively attempt to reduce crash risk

Assessing the Safety and Operational Benefits of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Application on Different Roadways, Weather, and Traffic Conditions

Connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies have recently drawn an increasing attention from governments, vehicle manufacturers, and researchers. Connected vehicle (CV) technologies provide real-time information about the surrounding traffic condition (i.e., position, speed, acceleration) and the traffic management center\u27s decisions. The CV technologies improve the safety by increasing driver situational awareness and reducing crashes through vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I). Vehicle platooning with CV technologies is another key element of the future transportation systems which helps to simultaneously enhance traffic operations and safety. CV technologies can also further increase the efficiency and reliability of automated vehicles (AV) by collecting real-time traffic information through V2V and V2I. However, the market penetration rate (MPR) of CAVs and the higher level of automation might not be fully available in the foreseeable future. Hence, it is worthwhile to study the safety benefits of CAV technologies under different MPRs and lower level of automation. None of the studies focused on both traffic safety and operational benefits for these technologies including different roadway, traffic, and weather conditions. In this study, the effectiveness of CAV technologies (i.e., CV /AV/CAV/CV platooning) were evaluated in different roadway, traffic, and weather conditions. To be more specific, the impact of CVs in reduced visibility condition, longitudinal safety evaluation of CV platooning in the managed lane, lower level of AVs in arterial roadway, and the optimal MPRs of CAVs for both peak and off-peak period are analyzed using simulation techniques. Currently, CAV fleet data are not easily obtainable which is one of the primary reasons to deploy the simulation techniques in this study to evaluate the impacts of CAVs in the roadway. The car following, lane changing, and the platooning behavior of the CAV technologies were modeled in the C++ programming language by considering realistic car following and lane changing models in PTV VISSIM. Surrogate safety assessment techniques were considered to evaluate the safety effectiveness of these CAV technologies, while the average travel time, average speed, and average delay were evaluated as traffic operational measures. Several statistical tests (i.e., Two sample t-test, ANOVA) and the modelling techniques (Tobit, Negative binomial, and Logistic regression) were conducted to evaluate the CAV effectiveness with different MPRs over the baseline scenario. The statistical tests and modeling results suggested that the higher the MPR of CAVs implemented, the higher were the safety and mobility benefits achieved for different roadways (i.e., freeway, expressway, arterials, managed lane), weather (i.e., clear, foggy), and traffic conditions (i.e., peak and off-peak period). Interestingly, from the safety and operation perspective, at least 30% and 20% MPR were needed to achieve both the safety and operational benefits of peak and off-peak period, respectively. This dissertation has major implications for improving transportation infrastructure by recommending optimal MPR of CAVs to achieve balanced mobility and safety benefits considering varying roadway, traffic, and weather condition

Performance Evaluation of Connected Vehicle (CV) and Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSM&O) Projects in Florida

BDV29-977-64Connected vehicle (CV) technologies and Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSM&O) strategies are increasingly being considered by transportation agencies to improve the safety and mobility of the transportation network. To fully understand the potential benefits of CV and TSM&O initiatives, it is crucial to not only identify the performance measures used to evaluate the progress of each initiative, but also to estimate the benefit-to-cost (B/C) ratios to justify the funding requests associated with implementing these technologies and strategies. The primary goal of this research was to assist the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) in developing approaches to evaluate the performance of CV projects and current TSM&O strategies being deployed, including the Rapid Incident Scene Clearance (RISC) program, the Road Ranger Service Patrol (RRSP) program, and the Smart Work Zone (SWZ) TSM&O strategies. A comprehensive review of the existing body of literature was conducted to identify the quantitative and qualitative performance measures and metrics that are being considered in evaluating the performance of CV deployments and TSM&O strategies. B/C analyses were conducted to quantify the mobility and safety benefits associated with implementing the RISC and RRSP programs. Results indicate that for every dollar spent on the RISC program, $5.78 is returned in secondary crash savings, and$1.20 is returned in incident-related traffic delay savings. For every dollar spent on the RRSP program, $5.15 is returned in secondary crash savings, and$7.44 is returned in incident-related traffic delay savings. The study also discussed the potential safety and mobility benefits of Smart Work Zone (SWZ) technologies. Performance criteria and evaluation metrics were also developed for the different stages of the CV project development process (i.e., pre-project phase, planning phase, design-deploy-test phase, and the operations & maintenance phase). The performance criteria of two CV deployments in Florida (Gainesville Signal Phase and Timing (SPaT) Project and I-4 Florida\u2019s Regional Advanced Mobility Elements (I-4 FRAME) Project) were also reviewed. Findings from this research offer guidance in evaluating the effectiveness of CV and TSM&O initiatives. Evaluation criteria and approaches presented in this report can better prepare FDOT for deployments

Examining Route Diversion And Multiple Ramp Metering Strategies For Reducing Real-time Crash Risk On Urban Freeways

Recent research at the University of Central Florida addressing crashes on Interstate-4 in Orlando, Florida has led to the creation of new statistical models capable of calculating the crash risk on the freeway (Abdel-Aty et al., 2004; 2005, Pande and Abdel-Aty, 2006). These models yield the rear-end and lane-change crash risk along the freeway in real-time by using static information at various locations along the freeway as well as real-time traffic data that is obtained from the roadway. Because these models use the real-time traffic data, they are capable of calculating the respective crash risk values as the traffic flow changes along the freeway. The purpose of this study is to examine the potential of two Intelligent Transportation System strategies for reducing the crash risk along the freeway by changing the traffic flow parameters. The two ITS measures that are examined in this research are route diversion and ramp metering. Route diversion serves to change the traffic flow by keeping some vehicles from entering the freeway at one location and diverting them to another location where they may be more efficiently inserted into the freeway traffic stream. Ramp metering alters the traffic flow by delaying vehicles at the freeway on-ramps and only allowing a certain number of vehicles to enter at a time. The two strategies were tested by simulating a 36.25 mile section of the Interstate-4 network in the PARAMICS micro-simulation software. Various implementations of route diversion and ramp metering were then tested to determine not only the effects of each strategy but also how to best apply them to an urban freeway. Route diversion was found to decrease the overall rear-end and lane-change crash risk along the network at free-flow conditions to low levels of congestion. On average, the two crash risk measures were found to be reduced between the location where vehicles were diverted and the location where they were reinserted back into the network. However, a crash migration phenomenon was observed at higher levels of congestion as the crash risk would be greatly increased at the location where vehicles were reinserted back onto the network. Ramp metering in the downtown area was found to be beneficial during heavy congestion. Both coordinated and uncoordinated metering algorithms showed the potential to significantly decrease the crash risk at a network wide level. When the network is loaded with 100 percent of the vehicles the uncoordinated strategy performed the best at reducing the rear-end and lane-change crash risk values. The coordinated strategy was found to perform the best from a safety and operational perspective at moderate levels of congestion. Ramp metering also showed the potential for crash migration so care must be taken when implementing this strategy to ensure that drivers at certain locations are not put at unnecessary risk. When ramp metering is applied to the entire freeway network both the rear-end and lane-change crash risk is decreased further. ALINEA is found to be the best network-wide strategy at the 100 percent loading case while a combination of Zone and ALINEA provides the best safety results at the 90 percent loading case. It should also be noted that both route diversion and ramp metering were found to increase the overall network travel time. However, the best route diversion and ramp metering strategies were selected to ensure that the operational capabilities of the network were not sacrificed in order to increase the safety along the freeway. This was done by setting the maximum allowable travel time increase at 5% for any of the ITS strategies considered

Evaluation of Traffic Operations and Safety of Reserved-Lanes

This study investigates the safety and operations of reserved lane facilities, with multiple interactions between vehicles. Currently, there are a limited number of studies that investigated the effects of various geometric designs impact on traffic operations along reserved-lanes, especially the specific factors that control for frequent opportunities of merging/diverging and crossing maneuvers. In this study, a VISSIM simulation model has been developed to model vehicular interactions of reserved-lanes facilities, along an arterial with interrupted traffic setup and along an uninterrupted highway segment, both located in the Montreal metro area. The model was used to evaluate the safety and traffic operations along the selected corridors by comparing the status quo with some proposed alternative design and assuming the prevailing traffic conditions. The simulation model was calibrated with real-world vehicle headways and the generated vehicle trajectories were used in a Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). An improvement of the SSAM model was achieved via a binary matrix calibration methodology, in order to identify the vehicle conflicts more accurately. This improvement helps traffic analysts to identify the potential traffic operations measures that could contribute to a reduction of vehicular conflicts. The results show that traffic operations along the corridor can be significantly improved if a different geometric alignment is used, one that would reduce the number of interaction opportunities. For example, it is shown that a 30-meter weaving section along the analysed arterial and a 50-meter merging section at the end of the highway bus-on-shoulder segment leads to improvements vehicles’ travel time as well as improvements in traffic safety

Protective Systems for Spills of Hazardous Materials, Volume II: Guidelines

DTFH61-85-C-00139This investigation addressed the identification of potential risks from highway transportation of hazardous materials that would result in severe permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and the identification of practical and implementable physical protective systems to reduce accident incidents and/or mitigate consequences. The primary concern was to reduce or prevent contamination of surface or ground water resources from flows or other movements of materials from accidental spills of hazardous materials. The hazardous spill substances are likely to be directly toxic or indirectly result in reduced quality of receiving waters. This report presents information on a number of protective systems that could be considered for a particular extreme-risk situation. It does not attempt to make the decision to use or not to use these protective systems. It is not a design manual. The decision and design details remain at the discretion of the user. The companion report, FHWA-RD-96-097 (Volume I: Final Report), developed a methodology using a State's panel to identify 11 generalized, ranked extreme risk scenarios and identified protective systems for each. The report concludes that few physical protective systems are available to reduce risk associated with highway transportation of hazardous materials