11,060 research outputs found
Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development
The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology
and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art
Fusing Loop and GPS Probe Measurements to Estimate Freeway Density
In an age of ever-increasing penetration of GPS-enabled mobile devices, the
potential of real-time "probe" location information for estimating the state of
transportation networks is receiving increasing attention. Much work has been
done on using probe data to estimate the current speed of vehicle traffic (or
equivalently, trip travel time). While travel times are useful to individual
drivers, the state variable for a large class of traffic models and control
algorithms is vehicle density. Our goal is to use probe data to supplement
traditional, fixed-location loop detector data for density estimation. To this
end, we derive a method based on Rao-Blackwellized particle filters, a
sequential Monte Carlo scheme. We present a simulation where we obtain a 30\%
reduction in density mean absolute percentage error from fusing loop and probe
data, vs. using loop data alone. We also present results using real data from a
19-mile freeway section in Los Angeles, California, where we obtain a 31\%
reduction. In addition, our method's estimate when using only the real-world
probe data, and no loop data, outperformed the estimate produced when only loop
data were used (an 18\% reduction). These results demonstrate that probe data
can be used for traffic density estimation
Probabilistic movement modeling for intention inference in human-robot interaction.
Intention inference can be an essential step toward efficient humanrobot interaction. For this purpose, we propose the Intention-Driven Dynamics Model (IDDM) to probabilistically model the generative process of movements that are directed by the intention. The IDDM allows to infer the intention from observed movements using Bayes ’ theorem. The IDDM simultaneously finds a latent state representation of noisy and highdimensional observations, and models the intention-driven dynamics in the latent states. As most robotics applications are subject to real-time constraints, we develop an efficient online algorithm that allows for real-time intention inference. Two human-robot interaction scenarios, i.e., target prediction for robot table tennis and action recognition for interactive humanoid robots, are used to evaluate the performance of our inference algorithm. In both intention inference tasks, the proposed algorithm achieves substantial improvements over support vector machines and Gaussian processes.
Probabilistic Motion Estimation Based on Temporal Coherence
We develop a theory for the temporal integration of visual motion motivated
by psychophysical experiments. The theory proposes that input data are
temporally grouped and used to predict and estimate the motion flows in the
image sequence. This temporal grouping can be considered a generalization of
the data association techniques used by engineers to study motion sequences.
Our temporal-grouping theory is expressed in terms of the Bayesian
generalization of standard Kalman filtering. To implement the theory we derive
a parallel network which shares some properties of cortical networks. Computer
simulations of this network demonstrate that our theory qualitatively accounts
for psychophysical experiments on motion occlusion and motion outliers.Comment: 40 pages, 7 figure
Uncertainty-Aware Online Merge Planning with Learned Driver Behavior
Safe and reliable autonomy solutions are a critical component of
next-generation intelligent transportation systems. Autonomous vehicles in such
systems must reason about complex and dynamic driving scenes in real time and
anticipate the behavior of nearby drivers. Human driving behavior is highly
nuanced and specific to individual traffic participants. For example, drivers
might display cooperative or non-cooperative behaviors in the presence of
merging vehicles. These behaviors must be estimated and incorporated in the
planning process for safe and efficient driving. In this work, we present a
framework for estimating the cooperation level of drivers on a freeway and plan
merging maneuvers with the drivers' latent behaviors explicitly modeled. The
latent parameter estimation problem is solved using a particle filter to
approximate the probability distribution over the cooperation level. A
partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) that includes the latent
state estimate is solved online to extract a policy for a merging vehicle. We
evaluate our method in a high-fidelity automotive simulator against methods
that are agnostic to latent states or rely on assumptions
about actor behavior
A review on probabilistic graphical models in evolutionary computation
Thanks to their inherent properties, probabilistic graphical models are one of the prime candidates for machine learning and decision making tasks especially in uncertain domains. Their capabilities, like representation, inference and learning, if used effectively, can greatly help to build intelligent systems that are able to act accordingly in different problem domains. Evolutionary algorithms is one such discipline that has employed probabilistic graphical models to improve the search for optimal solutions in complex problems. This paper shows how probabilistic graphical models have been used in evolutionary algorithms to improve their performance in solving complex problems. Specifically, we give a survey of probabilistic model building-based evolutionary algorithms, called estimation of distribution algorithms, and compare different methods for probabilistic modeling in these algorithms
Sequential Changepoint Approach for Online Community Detection
We present new algorithms for detecting the emergence of a community in large
networks from sequential observations. The networks are modeled using
Erdos-Renyi random graphs with edges forming between nodes in the community
with higher probability. Based on statistical changepoint detection
methodology, we develop three algorithms: the Exhaustive Search (ES), the
mixture, and the Hierarchical Mixture (H-Mix) methods. Performance of these
methods is evaluated by the average run length (ARL), which captures the
frequency of false alarms, and the detection delay. Numerical comparisons show
that the ES method performs the best; however, it is exponentially complex. The
mixture method is polynomially complex by exploiting the fact that the size of
the community is typically small in a large network. However, it may react to a
group of active edges that do not form a community. This issue is resolved by
the H-Mix method, which is based on a dendrogram decomposition of the network.
We present an asymptotic analytical expression for ARL of the mixture method
when the threshold is large. Numerical simulation verifies that our
approximation is accurate even in the non-asymptotic regime. Hence, it can be
used to determine a desired threshold efficiently. Finally, numerical examples
show that the mixture and the H-Mix methods can both detect a community quickly
with a lower complexity than the ES method.Comment: Submitted to 2014 INFORMS Workshop on Data Mining and Analytics and
an IEEE journa
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