Estimating Sequential-move Games by a Recursive Conditioning Simulator

Sequential decision-making is a noticeable feature of strategic interactions among agents. The full estimation of sequential games, however, has been challenging due to the sheer computational burden, especially when the game is large and asymmetric. In this paper, I propose an estimation method for discrete choice sequential games that is computationally feasible, easy-to-implement, and e¢ cient, by modifying the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane (GHK) simulator, the most widely used probit simulator. I show that the recursive nature of the GHK simulator is easily dovetailed with the sequential structure of strategic interactions.

Stochastic models of evidence accumulation in changing environments

Organisms and ecological groups accumulate evidence to make decisions. Classic experiments and theoretical studies have explored this process when the correct choice is fixed during each trial. However, we live in a constantly changing world. What effect does such impermanence have on classical results about decision making? To address this question we use sequential analysis to derive a tractable model of evidence accumulation when the correct option changes in time. Our analysis shows that ideal observers discount prior evidence at a rate determined by the volatility of the environment, and the dynamics of evidence accumulation is governed by the information gained over an average environmental epoch. A plausible neural implementation of an optimal observer in a changing environment shows that, in contrast to previous models, neural populations representing alternate choices are coupled through excitation. Our work builds a bridge between statistical decision making in volatile environments and stochastic nonlinear dynamics.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Estimation of Finite Sequential Games

I study the estimation of finite sequential games with perfect information. The major challenge in estimation is computation of high-dimensional truncated integration whose domain is complicated by strategic interaction. I show that this complication resolves when unobserved off-the-equilibrium-path strategies are controlled for. Separately evaluating the likelihood contribution of each subgame perfect strategy profile that rationalizes the observed outcome allows the use of the GHK simulator, the most widely used importance-sampling probit simulator. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate the performance and robustness of the proposed method, and confirm that misspecification of the decision order leads to underestimation of strategic effect.Inference In Discrete Games; Sequential Games; Monte Carlo Integration; GHK Simulator; Subgame Perfection; Perfect Information

Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies: A decision-theoretic overview

We consider the problem of learning about and comparing the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies on the basis of observational data. We formulate this within a probabilistic decision-theoretic framework. Our approach is compared with related work by Robins and others: in particular, we show how Robins's 'G-computation' algorithm arises naturally from this decision-theoretic perspective. Careful attention is paid to the mathematical and substantive conditions required to justify the use of this formula. These conditions revolve around a property we term stability, which relates the probabilistic behaviours of observational and interventional regimes. We show how an assumption of 'sequential randomization' (or 'no unmeasured confounders'), or an alternative assumption of 'sequential irrelevance', can be used to infer stability. Probabilistic influence diagrams are used to simplify manipulations, and their power and limitations are discussed. We compare our approach with alternative formulations based on causal DAGs or potential response models. We aim to show that formulating the problem of assessing dynamic treatment strategies as a problem of decision analysis brings clarity, simplicity and generality.Comment: 49 pages, 15 figure

WARP: Wavelets with adaptive recursive partitioning for multi-dimensional data

Effective identification of asymmetric and local features in images and other data observed on multi-dimensional grids plays a critical role in a wide range of applications including biomedical and natural image processing. Moreover, the ever increasing amount of image data, in terms of both the resolution per image and the number of images processed per application, requires algorithms and methods for such applications to be computationally efficient. We develop a new probabilistic framework for multi-dimensional data to overcome these challenges through incorporating data adaptivity into discrete wavelet transforms, thereby allowing them to adapt to the geometric structure of the data while maintaining the linear computational scalability. By exploiting a connection between the local directionality of wavelet transforms and recursive dyadic partitioning on the grid points of the observation, we obtain the desired adaptivity through adding to the traditional Bayesian wavelet regression framework an additional layer of Bayesian modeling on the space of recursive partitions over the grid points. We derive the corresponding inference recipe in the form of a recursive representation of the exact posterior, and develop a class of efficient recursive message passing algorithms for achieving exact Bayesian inference with a computational complexity linear in the resolution and sample size of the images. While our framework is applicable to a range of problems including multi-dimensional signal processing, compression, and structural learning, we illustrate its work and evaluate its performance in the context of 2D and 3D image reconstruction using real images from the ImageNet database. We also apply the framework to analyze a data set from retinal optical coherence tomography