Two parallel insurance lines with simultaneous arrivals and risks correlated with inter-arrival times

We investigate an insurance risk model that consists of two reserves which receive income at fixed rates. Claims are being requested at random epochs from each reserve and the interclaim times are generally distributed. The two reserves are coupled in the sense that at a claim arrival epoch, claims are being requested from both reserves and the amounts requested are correlated. In addition, the claim amounts are correlated with the time elapsed since the previous claim arrival. We focus on the probability that this bivariate reserve process survives indefinitely. The infinite- horizon survival problem is shown to be related to the problem of determining the equilibrium distribution of a random walk with vector-valued increments with reflecting boundary. This reflected random walk is actually the waiting time process in a queueing system dual to the bivariate ruin process. Under assumptions on the arrival process and the claim amounts, and using Wiener-Hopf factor- ization with one parameter, we explicitly determine the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the survival function, c.q., the two-dimensional equilibrium waiting time distribution. Finally, the bivariate transforms are evaluated for some examples, including for proportional reinsurance, and the bivariate ruin functions are numerically calculated using an efficient inversion scheme.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure

Nested Fork-Join Queuing Networks and Their Application to Mobility Airfield Operations Analysis

A single-chain nested fork-join queuing network (FJQN) model of mobility airfield ground processing is proposed. In order to analyze the queuing network model, advances on two fronts are made. First, a general technique for decomposing nested FJQNs with probabilistic forks is proposed, which consists of incorporating feedback loops into the embedded Markov chain of the synchronization station, then using Marie\u27s Method to decompose the network. Numerical studies show this strategy to be effective, with less than two percent relative error in the approximate performance measures in most realistic cases. The second contribution is the identification of a quick, efficient method for solving for the stationary probabilities of the λn/Ck/r/N queue. Unpreconditioned Conjugate Gradient Squared is shown to be the method of choice in the context of decomposition using Marie\u27s Method, thus broadening the class of networks where the method is of practical use. The mobility airfield model is analyzed using the strategies described above, and accurate approximations of airfield performance measures are obtained in a fraction of the time needed for a simulation study. The proposed airfield modeling approach is especially effective for quick-look studies and sensitivity analysis

New Analytic Solutions of Queueing System for Shared-Short Lanes at Unsignalized Intersections

Designing the crossroads capacity is a prerequisite for achieving a high level of service with the same sustainability in stochastic traffic flow. Also, modeling of crossroad capacity can influence on balancing (symmetry) of traffic flow. Loss of priority in a left turn and optimal dimensioning of shared-short line is one of the permanent problems at intersections. A shared-short lane for taking a left turn from a priority direction at unsignalized intersections with a homogenous traffic flow and heterogeneous demands is a two-phase queueing system requiring a first in-first out (FIFO) service discipline and single-server service facility. The first phase (short lane) of the system is the queueing system M(p lambda)/M(mu)/1/infinity, whereas the second phase (shared lane) is a system with a binomial distribution service. In this research, we explicitly derive the probability of the state of a queueing system with a short lane of a finite capacity for taking a left turn and shared lane of infinite capacity. The presented formulas are under the presumption that the system is Markovian, i.e., the vehicle arrivals in both the minor and major streams are distributed according to the Poisson law, and that the service of the vehicles is exponentially distributed. Complex recursive operations in the two-phase queueing system are explained and solved in manuscript

Propagation of epistemic uncertainty in queueing models with unreliable server using chaos expansions

In this paper, we develop a numerical approach based on Chaos expansions to analyze the sensitivity and the propagation of epistemic uncertainty through a queueing systems with breakdowns. Here, the quantity of interest is the stationary distribution of the model, which is a function of uncertain parameters. Polynomial chaos provide an efficient alternative to more traditional Monte Carlo simulations for modelling the propagation of uncertainty arising from those parameters. Furthermore, Polynomial chaos expansion affords a natural framework for computing Sobol' indices. Such indices give reliable information on the relative importance of each uncertain entry parameters. Numerical results show the benefit of using Polynomial Chaos over standard Monte-Carlo simulations, when considering statistical moments and Sobol' indices as output quantities

Towards an Erlang formula for multiclass networks

International audienceConsider a multiclass stochastic network with state-dependent service rates and arrival rates describing bandwidth-sharing mechanisms as well as admission control and/or load balancing schemes. Given Poisson arrival and exponential service requirements, the number of customers in the network evolves as a multi-dimensional birth-and-death process on a finite subset of ℕ. We assume that the death (i.e., service) rates and the birth rates depending on the whole state of the system satisfy a local balance condition. This makes the resulting network a Whittle network, and the stochastic process describing the state of the network is reversible with an explicit stationary distribution that is in fact insensitive to the service time distribution. Given routing constraints, we are interested in the optimal performance of such networks. We first construct bounds for generic performance criteria that can be evaluated using recursive procedures, these bounds being attained in the case of a unique arrival process. We then study the case of several arrival processes, focusing in particular on the instance with admission control only. Building on convexity properties, we characterize the optimal policy, and give criteria on the service rates for which our bounds are again attained

Standard and retrial queueing systems: a comparative analysis

We describe main models and results of a new branch of the queueing theory, theory of retrial queues, which is characterized by the following basic assumption: a customer who cannot get service (due to finite capacity of the system, balking, impatience, etc.)leaves the service area, but after some random delay returns to the system again. Emphasis is done on comparison with standard queues with waiting line and queues with losses. We give a survey of main results for both single server M/G/1 type and multiserver M/M/c type retrial queues and discuss similarities and differences between the retrial queues and their standard counterparts. We demonstrate that although retrial queues are closely connected with these standard queueing models they, however, ossess unique distinguished features. We also mention some open problems.We describe main models and results of a new branch of the queueing theory, theory of retrial queues, which is characterized by the following basic assumption: a customer who cannot get service (due to finite capacity of the system, balking, impatience, etc.)leaves the service area, but after some random delay returns to the system again. Emphasis is done on comparison with standard queues with waiting line and queues with losses. We give a survey of main results for both single server M/G/1 type and multiserver M/M/c type retrial queues and discuss similarities and differences between the retrial queues and their standard counterparts. We demonstrate that although retrial queues are closely connected with these standard queueing models they, however, ossess unique distinguished features. We also mention some open problems

A tool for model-checking Markov chains

Markov chains are widely used in the context of the performance and reliability modeling of various systems. Model checking of such chains with respect to a given (branching) temporal logic formula has been proposed for both discrete [34, 10] and continuous time settings [7, 12]. In this paper, we describe a prototype model checker for discrete and continuous-time Markov chains, the Erlangen-Twente Markov Chain Checker EÎMC2, where properties are expressed in appropriate extensions of CTL. We illustrate the general benefits of this approach and discuss the structure of the tool. Furthermore, we report on successful applications of the tool to some examples, highlighting lessons learned during the development and application of EÎMC2