Tree Memory Networks for Modelling Long-term Temporal Dependencies

In the domain of sequence modelling, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have been capable of achieving impressive results in a variety of application areas including visual question answering, part-of-speech tagging and machine translation. However this success in modelling short term dependencies has not successfully transitioned to application areas such as trajectory prediction, which require capturing both short term and long term relationships. In this paper, we propose a Tree Memory Network (TMN) for modelling long term and short term relationships in sequence-to-sequence mapping problems. The proposed network architecture is composed of an input module, controller and a memory module. In contrast to related literature, which models the memory as a sequence of historical states, we model the memory as a recursive tree structure. This structure more effectively captures temporal dependencies across both short term and long term sequences using its hierarchical structure. We demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed TMN in two practical problems, aircraft trajectory modelling and pedestrian trajectory modelling in a surveillance setting, and in both cases we outperform the current state-of-the-art. Furthermore, we perform an in depth analysis on the evolution of the memory module content over time and provide visual evidence on how the proposed TMN is able to map both long term and short term relationships efficiently via a hierarchical structure

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Survey on Vision-based Path Prediction

Path prediction is a fundamental task for estimating how pedestrians or vehicles are going to move in a scene. Because path prediction as a task of computer vision uses video as input, various information used for prediction, such as the environment surrounding the target and the internal state of the target, need to be estimated from the video in addition to predicting paths. Many prediction approaches that include understanding the environment and the internal state have been proposed. In this survey, we systematically summarize methods of path prediction that take video as input and and extract features from the video. Moreover, we introduce datasets used to evaluate path prediction methods quantitatively.Comment: DAPI 201

When and Where: Predicting Human Movements Based on Social Spatial-Temporal Events

Predicting both the time and the location of human movements is valuable but challenging for a variety of applications. To address this problem, we propose an approach considering both the periodicity and the sociality of human movements. We first define a new concept, Social Spatial-Temporal Event (SSTE), to represent social interactions among people. For the time prediction, we characterise the temporal dynamics of SSTEs with an ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) model. To dynamically capture the SSTE kinetics, we propose a Kalman Filter based learning algorithm to learn and incrementally update the ARMA model as a new observation becomes available. For the location prediction, we propose a ranking model where the periodicity and the sociality of human movements are simultaneously taken into consideration for improving the prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on real data sets validate our proposed approach

Discovering Functional Communities in Dynamical Networks

Many networks are important because they are substrates for dynamical systems, and their pattern of functional connectivity can itself be dynamic -- they can functionally reorganize, even if their underlying anatomical structure remains fixed. However, the recent rapid progress in discovering the community structure of networks has overwhelmingly focused on that constant anatomical connectivity. In this paper, we lay out the problem of discovering_functional communities_, and describe an approach to doing so. This method combines recent work on measuring information sharing across stochastic networks with an existing and successful community-discovery algorithm for weighted networks. We illustrate it with an application to a large biophysical model of the transition from beta to gamma rhythms in the hippocampus.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Springer "Lecture Notes in Computer Science" style. Forthcoming in the proceedings of the workshop "Statistical Network Analysis: Models, Issues and New Directions", at ICML 2006. Version 2: small clarifications, typo corrections, added referenc

Collective Motion of Predictive Swarms

Theoretical models of populations and swarms typically start with the assumption that the motion of agents is governed by the local stimuli. However, an intelligent agent, with some understanding of the laws that govern its habitat, can anticipate the future, and make predictions to gather resources more efficiently. Here we study a specific model of this kind, where agents aim to maximize their consumption of a diffusing resource, by attempting to predict the future of a resource field and the actions of other agents. Once the agents make a prediction, they are attracted to move towards regions that have, and will have, denser resources. We find that the further the agents attempt to see into the future, the more their attempts at prediction fail, and the less resources they consume. We also study the case where predictive agents compete against non-predictive agents and find the predictors perform better than the non-predictors only when their relative numbers are very small. We conclude that predictivity pays off either when the predictors do not see too far into the future or the number of predictors is small.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figure