Nonlinear time-series analysis revisited

In 1980 and 1981, two pioneering papers laid the foundation for what became known as nonlinear time-series analysis: the analysis of observed data---typically univariate---via dynamical systems theory. Based on the concept of state-space reconstruction, this set of methods allows us to compute characteristic quantities such as Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimensions, to predict the future course of the time series, and even to reconstruct the equations of motion in some cases. In practice, however, there are a number of issues that restrict the power of this approach: whether the signal accurately and thoroughly samples the dynamics, for instance, and whether it contains noise. Moreover, the numerical algorithms that we use to instantiate these ideas are not perfect; they involve approximations, scale parameters, and finite-precision arithmetic, among other things. Even so, nonlinear time-series analysis has been used to great advantage on thousands of real and synthetic data sets from a wide variety of systems ranging from roulette wheels to lasers to the human heart. Even in cases where the data do not meet the mathematical or algorithmic requirements to assure full topological conjugacy, the results of nonlinear time-series analysis can be helpful in understanding, characterizing, and predicting dynamical systems

Testing for Chaos in Deterministic Systems with Noise

Recently, we introduced a new test for distinguishing regular from chaotic dynamics in deterministic dynamical systems and argued that the test had certain advantages over the traditional test for chaos using the maximal Lyapunov exponent. In this paper, we investigate the capability of the test to cope with moderate amounts of noisy data. Comparisons are made between an improved version of our test and both the ``tangent space'' and ``direct method'' for computing the maximal Lyapunov exponent. The evidence of numerical experiments, ranging from the logistic map to an eight-dimensional Lorenz system of differential equations (the Lorenz 96 system), suggests that our method is superior to tangent space methods and that it compares very favourably with direct methods

Optimal embedding parameters: A modelling paradigm

Reconstruction of a dynamical system from a time series requires the selection of two parameters, the embedding dimension $d_e$ and the embedding lag $\tau$. Many competing criteria to select these parameters exist, and all are heuristic. Within the context of modeling the evolution operator of the underlying dynamical system, we show that one only need be concerned with the product $d_e\tau$. We introduce an information theoretic criteria for the optimal selection of the embedding window $d_w=d_e\tau$. For infinitely long time series this method is equivalent to selecting the embedding lag that minimises the nonlinear model prediction error. For short and noisy time series we find that the results of this new algorithm are data dependent and superior to estimation of embedding parameters with the standard techniques

Time lagged ordinal partition networks for capturing dynamics of continuous dynamical systems

We investigate a generalised version of the recently proposed ordinal partition time series to network transformation algorithm. Firstly we introduce a fixed time lag for the elements of each partition that is selected using techniques from traditional time delay embedding. The resulting partitions define regions in the embedding phase space that are mapped to nodes in the network space. Edges are allocated between nodes based on temporal succession thus creating a Markov chain representation of the time series. We then apply this new transformation algorithm to time series generated by the R\"ossler system and find that periodic dynamics translate to ring structures whereas chaotic time series translate to band or tube-like structures -- thereby indicating that our algorithm generates networks whose structure is sensitive to system dynamics. Furthermore we demonstrate that simple network measures including the mean out degree and variance of out degrees can track changes in the dynamical behaviour in a manner comparable to the largest Lyapunov exponent. We also apply the same analysis to experimental time series generated by a diode resonator circuit and show that the network size, mean shortest path length and network diameter are highly sensitive to the interior crisis captured in this particular data set