DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.Comment: Accepted at JBI under the new name: "Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach

Knowledge will Propel Machine Understanding of Content: Extrapolating from Current Examples

Machine Learning has been a big success story during the AI resurgence. One particular stand out success relates to learning from a massive amount of data. In spite of early assertions of the unreasonable effectiveness of data, there is increasing recognition for utilizing knowledge whenever it is available or can be created purposefully. In this paper, we discuss the indispensable role of knowledge for deeper understanding of content where (i) large amounts of training data are unavailable, (ii) the objects to be recognized are complex, (e.g., implicit entities and highly subjective content), and (iii) applications need to use complementary or related data in multiple modalities/media. What brings us to the cusp of rapid progress is our ability to (a) create relevant and reliable knowledge and (b) carefully exploit knowledge to enhance ML/NLP techniques. Using diverse examples, we seek to foretell unprecedented progress in our ability for deeper understanding and exploitation of multimodal data and continued incorporation of knowledge in learning techniques.Comment: Pre-print of the paper accepted at 2017 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence (WI). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1610.0770

Knowledge-based best of breed approach for automated detection of clinical events based on German free text digital hospital discharge letters

OBJECTIVES: The secondary use of medical data contained in electronic medical records, such as hospital discharge letters, is a valuable resource for the improvement of clinical care (e.g. in terms of medication safety) or for research purposes. However, the automated processing and analysis of medical free text still poses a huge challenge to available natural language processing (NLP) systems. The aim of this study was to implement a knowledge-based best of breed approach, combining a terminology server with integrated ontology, a NLP pipeline and a rules engine. METHODS: We tested the performance of this approach in a use case. The clinical event of interest was the particular drug-disease interaction "proton-pump inhibitor [PPI] use and osteoporosis". Cases were to be identified based on free text digital discharge letters as source of information. Automated detection was validated against a gold standard. RESULTS: Precision of recognition of osteoporosis was 94.19%, and recall was 97.45%. PPIs were detected with 100% precision and 97.97% recall. The F-score for the detection of the given drug-disease-interaction was 96,13%. CONCLUSION: We could show that our approach of combining a NLP pipeline, a terminology server, and a rules engine for the purpose of automated detection of clinical events such as drug-disease interactions from free text digital hospital discharge letters was effective. There is huge potential for the implementation in clinical and research contexts, as this approach enables analyses of very high numbers of medical free text documents within a short time period