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Artificial Intelligence, International Competition, and the Balance of Power (May 2018)
World leaders, CEOs, and academics have suggested that a revolution in artificial intelligence is upon us. Are they right, and what will advances in artificial intelligence mean for international competition and the balance of power? This article evaluates how developments in artificial intelligence (AI) — advanced, narrow applications in particular — are poised to influence military power and international politics. It describes how AI more closely resembles “enabling” technologies such as the combustion engine or electricity than a specific weapon. AI’s still-emerging developments make it harder to assess than many technological changes, especially since many of the organizational decisions about the adoption and uses of new technology that generally shape the impact of that technology are in their infancy. The article then explores the possibility that key drivers of AI development in the private sector could cause the rapid diffusion of military applications of AI, limiting first-mover advantages for innovators. Alternatively, given uncertainty about the technological trajectory of AI, it is also possible that military uses of AI will be harder to develop based on private-sector AI technologies than many expect, generating more potential first-mover advantages for existing powers such as China and the United States, as well as larger consequences for relative power if a country fails to adapt. Finally, the article discusses the extent to which U.S. military rhetoric about the importance of AI matches the reality of U.S. investments.LBJ School of Public Affair
Post-Westgate SWAT : C4ISTAR Architectural Framework for Autonomous Network Integrated Multifaceted Warfighting Solutions Version 1.0 : A Peer-Reviewed Monograph
Police SWAT teams and Military Special Forces face mounting pressure and
challenges from adversaries that can only be resolved by way of ever more
sophisticated inputs into tactical operations. Lethal Autonomy provides
constrained military/security forces with a viable option, but only if
implementation has got proper empirically supported foundations. Autonomous
weapon systems can be designed and developed to conduct ground, air and naval
operations. This monograph offers some insights into the challenges of
developing legal, reliable and ethical forms of autonomous weapons, that
address the gap between Police or Law Enforcement and Military operations that
is growing exponentially small. National adversaries are today in many
instances hybrid threats, that manifest criminal and military traits, these
often require deployment of hybrid-capability autonomous weapons imbued with
the capability to taken on both Military and/or Security objectives. The
Westgate Terrorist Attack of 21st September 2013 in the Westlands suburb of
Nairobi, Kenya is a very clear manifestation of the hybrid combat scenario that
required military response and police investigations against a fighting cell of
the Somalia based globally networked Al Shabaab terrorist group.Comment: 52 pages, 6 Figures, over 40 references, reviewed by a reade
21st Century Simulation: Exploiting High Performance Computing and Data Analysis
This paper identifies, defines, and analyzes the limitations imposed on Modeling and Simulation by outmoded
paradigms in computer utilization and data analysis. The authors then discuss two emerging capabilities to
overcome these limitations: High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis. First, parallel
computing, in supercomputers and Linux clusters, has proven effective by providing users an advantage in
computing power. This has been characterized as a ten-year lead over the use of single-processor computers.
Second, advanced data analysis techniques are both necessitated and enabled by this leap in computing power.
JFCOM's JESPP project is one of the few simulation initiatives to effectively embrace these concepts. The
challenges facing the defense analyst today have grown to include the need to consider operations among non-combatant
populations, to focus on impacts to civilian infrastructure, to differentiate combatants from non-combatants,
and to understand non-linear, asymmetric warfare. These requirements stretch both current
computational techniques and data analysis methodologies. In this paper, documented examples and potential
solutions will be advanced. The authors discuss the paths to successful implementation based on their experience.
Reviewed technologies include parallel computing, cluster computing, grid computing, data logging, OpsResearch,
database advances, data mining, evolutionary computing, genetic algorithms, and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses.
The modeling and simulation community has significant potential to provide more opportunities for training and
analysis. Simulations must include increasingly sophisticated environments, better emulations of foes, and more
realistic civilian populations. Overcoming the implementation challenges will produce dramatically better insights,
for trainees and analysts. High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis promise increased
understanding of future vulnerabilities to help avoid unneeded mission failures and unacceptable personnel losses.
The authors set forth road maps for rapid prototyping and adoption of advanced capabilities. They discuss the
beneficial impact of embracing these technologies, as well as risk mitigation required to ensure success
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