249,166 research outputs found

    Reasoning about uncertainty in empirical results

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    Conclusions that are drawn from experiments are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. For example, they might rely on small data sets, employ statistical techniques that make assumptions that are hard to verify, or there may be unknown confounding factors. In this paper we propose an alternative but complementary mechanism to explicitly incorporate these various sources of uncertainty into reasoning about empirical findings, by applying Subjective Logic. To do this we show how typical traditional results can be encoded as "subjective opinions" -- the building blocks of Subjective Logic. We demonstrate the value of the approach by using Subjective Logic to aggregate empirical results from two large published studies that explore the relationship between programming languages and defects or failures

    Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy

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    Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making. Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an under-researched professional group. Methods: 23 purposively sampled UK community pharmacists were asked, in semi-structured interviews, to describe ethical problems in their work and how they were resolved. Framework analysis of transcribed interviews utilised the four decision-making stages, together with constant comparative methods and deviant-case analysis. Results: Pharmacists were often inattentive and constructed problems in legal terms. Ethical reasoning was limited, but examples of appeals to consequences, the golden rule, religious faith and common-sense experience emerged. Ethical intention was compromised by frequent concern about legal prosecution. Ethical inaction was common, typified by pharmacists' failure to report healthcare professionals' bad practices, and ethical passivity emerged to describe these negative examples of the four decision-making stages. Pharmacists occasionally described more ethically active decision-making, but this often involved ethical uncertainty. Discussion: The four decision-making stages are a useful tool in considering how healthcare professionals try to resolve ethical problems in practice. They reveal processes often ignored in normative theories, and their recognition and the emergence of ethical passivity indicates the complexity of decision-making in practice. Ethical passivity may be deleterious to patients' welfare, and concerns emerge about improving pharmacists' ethical training and promoting ethical awareness and responsibility

    Options Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Investigation of Patterns of Commitment in Display Technologies in the Flat Panel TV Set Industry

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    This dissertation considers fundamental questions about real options reasoning and its application in the face of uncertainty: do firms behave as real options reasoning predicts, and are there performance benefits from its application? The concept of uncertainty is further developed by considering two primary types: technological uncertainty and market needs uncertainty. A qualitative industry level historical case study is performed on the flat panel TV industry, chosen because it exhibits high technological uncertainty and low market needs uncertainty. Real options logic predicts, in such an industry, that firms will develop and maintain technology options until uncertainty is resolved. Firm level case studies for major incumbent Japanese TV set manufacturers and other relevant firms are performed. Comparison across the cases, and between several specific firms is conducted to test and further develop theory. The firms studied are found to generally behave as predicted by real options logic. Evidence from the study does not present a clear relation between options-related behavior and performance. Although this study identifies evidence not holding options can have large negative performance results, firms holding options as predicted by theory did not realize lasting performance improvements. With one exception, firms attempting to leverage technological capabilities into improved market positions were unable to realize durable improvements in their positions. The development and release of flat panel TV coincided with changes in performance for many firms in the industry; however, these performance changes were short lived. By the end of the study period, industry players had generally returned to the trajectories they were previously on. Between-case analysis of several outlying firms in the sample provides a rich and nuanced view of requirements for firms to dramatically improve performance in the face of high technological uncertainty in a market with very large size potential and relatively well-understood customer needs. This research contributes to the empirical literature on real options and is novel amongst academic research in its coverage of the flat panel display history using Japanese sources. Finally, this dissertation includes managerial implications regarding the usefulness of real options reasoning as well as practical issues in its implementation

    Structure of, access to, and uncertainty in reasoning and their dependence on content

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    It is known that content has an effect on reasoning. In this paper the influence of the content on the structure of reasoning, the access to it, and the ability to handle uncertainty was studied. The participants were presented with reasoning tasks about the weather and about the oscilloscope in which uncertain premises were introduced. Correct reasoning procedures were identified including correct reasoning with wrong answers. In correct reasoning procedures about the weather, three different structures of reasoning were identified. The participants were mostly able to reason with uncertain components. In reasoning about the oscilloscope, less correct reasoning procedures were found. No empirical and theoretical structures were used. The hidden structure differed here from the one in the weather case because the participants were not able to handle all uncertain components in otherwise correct reasoning. The implications of this unique finding for the acquisition of reasoning skills are discusse

    Scientific Models of Human Health Risk Analysis in Legal and Policy Decisions

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    The quality of scientific predictions of risk in the courtroom and policy arena rests in large measure on how the two differences between normal practice and the legal/policy practice of science are reconciled. This article considers a variety of issues that arise in reconciling these differences, and the problems that remain with scientific estimates of risk when these are used in decisions

    Moral Uncertainty for Deontologists

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    Defenders of deontological constraints in normative ethics face a challenge: how should an agent decide what to do when she is uncertain whether some course of action would violate a constraint? The most common response to this challenge has been to defend a threshold principle on which it is subjectively permissible to act iff the agent's credence that her action would be constraint-violating is below some threshold t. But the threshold approach seems arbitrary and unmotivated: what would possibly determine where the threshold should be set, and why should there be any precise threshold at all? Threshold views also seem to violate ought agglomeration, since a pair of actions each of which is below the threshold for acceptable moral risk can, in combination, exceed that threshold. In this paper, I argue that stochastic dominance reasoning can vindicate and lend rigor to the threshold approach: given characteristically deontological assumptions about the moral value of acts, it turns out that morally safe options will stochastically dominate morally risky alternatives when and only when the likelihood that the risky option violates a moral constraint is greater than some precisely definable threshold (in the simplest case, .5). I also show how, in combination with the observation that deontological moral evaluation is relativized to particular choice situations, this approach can overcome the agglomeration problem. This allows the deontologist to give a precise and well-motivated response to the problem of uncertainty
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