Agents for educational games and simulations

This book consists mainly of revised papers that were presented at the Agents for Educational Games and Simulation (AEGS) workshop held on May 2, 2011, as part of the Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems (AAMAS) conference in Taipei, Taiwan. The 12 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from various submissions. The papers are organized topical sections on middleware applications, dialogues and learning, adaption and convergence, and agent applications

Concept of a Robust & Training-free Probabilistic System for Real-time Intention Analysis in Teams

Die Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Analyse von Teamintentionen in Smart Environments (SE). Die fundamentale Aussage der Arbeit ist, dass die Entwicklung und Integration expliziter Modelle von Nutzeraufgaben einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Entwicklung mobiler und ubiquitärer Softwaresysteme liefern können. Die Arbeit sammelt Beschreibungen von menschlichem Verhalten sowohl in Gruppensituationen als auch Problemlösungssituationen. Sie untersucht, wie SE-Projekte die Aktivitäten eines Nutzers modellieren, und liefert ein Teamintentionsmodell zur Ableitung und Auswahl geplanten Teamaktivitäten mittels der Beobachtung mehrerer Nutzer durch verrauschte und heterogene Sensoren. Dazu wird ein auf hierarchischen dynamischen Bayes’schen Netzen basierender Ansatz gewählt

A Comprehensive Review of Digital Twin -- Part 1: Modeling and Twinning Enabling Technologies

As an emerging technology in the era of Industry 4.0, digital twin is gaining unprecedented attention because of its promise to further optimize process design, quality control, health monitoring, decision and policy making, and more, by comprehensively modeling the physical world as a group of interconnected digital models. In a two-part series of papers, we examine the fundamental role of different modeling techniques, twinning enabling technologies, and uncertainty quantification and optimization methods commonly used in digital twins. This first paper presents a thorough literature review of digital twin trends across many disciplines currently pursuing this area of research. Then, digital twin modeling and twinning enabling technologies are further analyzed by classifying them into two main categories: physical-to-virtual, and virtual-to-physical, based on the direction in which data flows. Finally, this paper provides perspectives on the trajectory of digital twin technology over the next decade, and introduces a few emerging areas of research which will likely be of great use in future digital twin research. In part two of this review, the role of uncertainty quantification and optimization are discussed, a battery digital twin is demonstrated, and more perspectives on the future of digital twin are shared

Machine Learning Approaches for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) as a field has emerged quite rapidly in the recent years. A competitive solution coupled with big data gathered for ITS applications needs the latest AI to drive the ITS for the smart and effective public transport planning and management. Although there is a strong need for ITS applications like Advanced Route Planning (ARP) and Traffic Control Systems (TCS) to take the charge and require the minimum of possible human interventions. This thesis develops the models that can predict the traffic link flows on a junction level such as road traffic flows for a freeway or highway road for all traffic conditions. The research first reviews the state-of-the-art time series data prediction techniques with a deep focus in the field of transport Engineering along with the existing statistical and machine leaning methods and their applications for the freeway traffic flow prediction. This review setup a firm work focussed on the view point to look for the superiority in term of prediction performance of individual statistical or machine learning models over another. A detailed theoretical attention has been given, to learn the structure and working of individual chosen prediction models, in relation to the traffic flow data. In modelling the traffic flows from the real-world Highway England (HE) gathered dataset, a traffic flow objective function for highway road prediction models is proposed in a 3-stage framework including the topological breakdown of traffic network into virtual patches, further into nodes and to the basic links flow profiles behaviour estimations. The proposed objective function is tested with ten different prediction models including the statistical, shallow and deep learning constructed hybrid models for bi-directional links flow prediction methods. The effectiveness of the proposed objective function greatly enhances the accuracy of traffic flow prediction, regardless of the machine learning model used. The proposed prediction objective function base framework gives a new approach to model the traffic network to better understand the unknown traffic flow waves and the resulting congestions caused on a junction level. In addition, the results of applied Machine Learning models indicate that RNN variant LSTMs based models in conjunction with neural networks and Deep CNNs, when applied through the proposed objective function, outperforms other chosen machine learning methods for link flow predictions. The experimentation based practical findings reveal that to arrive at an efficient, robust, offline and accurate prediction model apart from feeding the ML mode with the correct representation of the network data, attention should be paid to the deep learning model structure, data pre-processing (i.e. normalisation) and the error matrices used for data behavioural learning. The proposed framework, in future can be utilised to address one of the main aims of the smart transport systems i.e. to reduce the error rates in network wide congestion predictions and the inflicted general traffic travel time delays in real-time

Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN

The risks involved in ship pilotage operations are characterized by random, uncertain and complex features. To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of ship collision risks in the pilotage operations process, a risk evolution analysis model is developed in this paper by the combination of a Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). First, based on the analysis results of the functional resonance mechanism of a ship pilotage system, the relevant collision risk influencing factors (RIFs) and their coupling relationships are identified. Second, the DBN is quantified by the employment of various uncertainty treatment methods including the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory for the configuration of the prior probabilities and a Markov model for the dynamic factors’ transition probability calculation. Finally, using the temporal observation data, the temporal risk inference is conducted to reveal the risk evolution law in a ship pilotage operations process. The findings show that the evolution of collision risk in ship pilotage is significantly sensitive to regional locations, resulting in a “U” curve shaped by the action of functional resonance. “Inadequate human look-out” is among the most influential factors, and hence targeted risk control strategies should be formulated to ensure the safety of ship pilotage operations

Failure Prognosis of Wind Turbine Components

Wind energy is playing an increasingly significant role in the World\u27s energy supply mix. In North America, many utility-scale wind turbines are approaching, or are beyond the half-way point of their originally anticipated lifespan. Accurate estimation of the times to failure of major turbine components can provide wind farm owners insight into how to optimize the life and value of their farm assets. This dissertation deals with fault detection and failure prognosis of critical wind turbine sub-assemblies, including generators, blades, and bearings based on data-driven approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of faulty components accurately and efficiently. The main contributions of this dissertation are in the application of ALTA lifetime analysis to help illustrate a possible relationship between varying loads and generators reliability, a wavelet-based Probability Density Function (PDF) to effectively detecting incipient wind turbine blade failure, an adaptive Bayesian algorithm for modeling the uncertainty inherent in the bearings RUL prediction horizon, and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for characterizing the bearing damage progression based on varying operating states to mimic a real condition in which wind turbines operate and to recognize that the damage progression is a function of the stress applied to each component using data from historical failures across three different Canadian wind farms

Data-Driven Approach based on Deep Learning and Probabilistic Models for PHY-Layer Security in AI-enabled Cognitive Radio IoT.

PhD Theses.Cognitive Radio Internet of Things (CR-IoT) has revolutionized almost every eld of life and reshaped the technological world. Several tiny devices are seamlessly connected in a CR-IoT network to perform various tasks in many applications. Nevertheless, CR-IoT su ers from malicious attacks that pulverize communication and perturb network performance. Therefore, recently it is envisaged to introduce higher-level Arti cial Intelligence (AI) by incorporating Self-Awareness (SA) capabilities into CR-IoT objects to facilitate CR-IoT networks to establish secure transmission against vicious attacks autonomously. In this context, sub-band information from the Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) modulated transmission in the spectrum has been extracted from the radio device receiver terminal, and a generalized state vector (GS) is formed containing low dimension in-phase and quadrature components. Accordingly, a probabilistic method based on learning a switching Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) from OFDM transmission with no abnormalities has been proposed to statistically model signal behaviors inside the CR-IoT spectrum. A Bayesian lter, Markov Jump Particle Filter (MJPF), is implemented to perform state estimation and capture malicious attacks. Subsequently, GS containing a higher number of subcarriers has been investigated. In this connection, Variational autoencoders (VAE) is used as a deep learning technique to extract features from high dimension radio signals into low dimension latent space z, and DBN is learned based on GS containing latent space data. Afterward, to perform state estimation and capture abnormalities in a spectrum, Adapted-Markov Jump Particle Filter (A-MJPF) is deployed. The proposed method can capture anomaly that appears due to either jammer attacks in transmission or cognitive devices in a network experiencing di erent transmission sources that have not been observed previously. The performance is assessed using the receiver