Diversity in virtual reality landscape modelling

This paper examines the range of decisions that landscape architects need to consider in communicating the future of the landscape. The objective of this research paper was to investigate the issues affecting the landscape modelling process. It also aimed to provide a better understanding of the creators of landscape visualisations and the role they play in determining what audiences, often from many disciplines, see and debate. Interviews were conducted to gather ideas from practice and academia. The paper acknowledges that this was a limited exploration with the intention of establishing a base for a further study. Issues relating to the diversity of audiences, diversity of interpretation, appropriate levels of representation and representing the passage of time in VR models and technologies currently available for VR modelling were the focus of the interviews

An overview of virtual city modelling : emerging organisational issues

This paper presents a recent overview of the increasing use of Virtual Reality (VR) technologies for the simulation of urban environments. It builds on previous research conducted on the identification of three-dimensional (3D) city models and offers an analysis of the development, utilization and construction of VR city models. Issues pertaining to advantages, barriers and ownership are identified. The paper describes a case study of the development of a VR model for the city of Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK and outlines the role that academic institutions can play in both the creation and utilization of urban models. The study offers a new approach for the creation, management and update of urban models and reflects on issues which are emerging. Areas for future research are discussed

Are plant species able to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate?

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species

Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...

There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical, operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale

Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.Complex Systems, Agent-Based Modelling, Social Simulation, Transitions, Transition Theory

Evaluation of buffer-radius modelling approaches used in forest conservation and planning

Spatial modelling approaches are increasingly being used to direct forest management and conservation planning at the landscape scale. A popular approach is the use of buffer-radius methods, which create buffers around distinct forest habitat patches to assess habitat connectivity within anthropogenic landscapes. However, the effectiveness and sensitivity of such methods have rarely been evaluated. In this study, Euclidean and least-cost buffer-radius approaches were used to predict functional ecological networks within the wooded landscape of the Isle of Wight (UK). To parameterize the models, a combination of empirical evidence and expert knowledge was used relating to the dispersal ability of a model species, the wood cricket (Nemobius sylvestris Bosc.). Three scenarios were developed to assess the influence of increasing the amount of spatial and species-specific input data on the model outcomes. This revealed that the level of habitat fragmentation for the model species is likely to be underestimated when few empirical data are available. Furthermore, the least-cost buffer approach outperformed simple Euclidean buffer in predicting presence and absence for the model species. Sensitivity analyses on model performance revealed high sensitivity of the models to variation in buffer distance (i.e. maximum dispersal distance) and permeability of common landscape features such as roads, watercourses, grassland and semi-natural habitat. This indicates that when data are lacking with which to parameterize buffer-radius models, the model outcomes need to be interpreted with caution. This study also showed that if sufficient empirical data are available, least-cost buffer approaches have the potential to be a valuable tool to assist forest managers in making informed decisions. However, least-cost approaches should always be used as an indicative rather than prescriptive management tool to support forest landscape conservation and planning

UK Research Information Shared Service (UKRISS) Final Report, July 2014

The reporting of research information is a complex and expensive activity for research organisations (ROs). There is little alignment between funders of the reporting requests made to institutions and requests made to individual researchers about their research outputs and outcomes. This inevitably results in duplication and increased costs across the sector, whilst limiting the potential sharing and reuse of the information. The UK Research Information Shared Service (UKRISS) project conducted a feasibility and scoping study for the reporting of research information at a national level based on CERIF (Common European Research Information Format), with the objective of increasing efficiency, productivity and quality across the sector. The aim was to define and prototype solutions which are compelling, easy to use, have a low entry barrier, and support innovative information sharing and benchmarking. CERIF has emerged as the preferred format for expressing research information across Europe. To date, CERIF has been piloted for specific applications, but not as a format for reporting requirements across all UK ROs. The final report presents the work carried out by the UKRISS project, including requirements gathering, modelling and prototyping, as well as recommendation for sustainability. UKRISS was divided into two phases. Phase 1, mapping the reporting landscape, ran from March 2012 to December 2012. Phase 2, exploring delivery of potential solutions, began in February 2013 and ended in December 2013

A GIS model-based assessment of the environmental distribution of g-hexachlorocyclohexane in European soils and waters

The MAPPE GIS based multimedia model is used to produce a quantitative description of the behaviour of γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH) in Europe, with emphasis on continental surface waters. The model is found to reasonably reproduce γ-HCH distributions and variations along the years in atmosphere and soil; for continental surface waters, concentrations were reasonably well predicted for year 1995, when lindane was still used in agriculture, while for 2005, assuming severe restrictions in use, yields to substantial underestimation. Much better results were yielded when same mode of release as in 1995 was considered, supporting the conjecture that for γ-HCH, emission data rather that model structure and parameterization can be responsible for wrong estimation of concentrations. Future research should be directed to improve the quality of emission data. Joint interpretation of monitoring and modelling results, highlights that lindane emissions in Europe, despite the marked decreasing trend, persist beyond the provisions of existing legislation. An spatially-explicit multimedia modelling strategy was applied to describe the historical distribution of γ-HCH in European soils and surface waters

Disentangling astroglial physiology with a realistic cell model in silico

Electrically non-excitable astroglia take up neurotransmitters, buffer extracellular K+ and generate Ca2+ signals that release molecular regulators of neural circuitry. The underlying machinery remains enigmatic, mainly because the sponge-like astrocyte morphology has been difficult to access experimentally or explore theoretically. Here, we systematically incorporate multi-scale, tri-dimensional astroglial architecture into a realistic multi-compartmental cell model, which we constrain by empirical tests and integrate into the NEURON computational biophysical environment. This approach is implemented as a flexible astrocyte-model builder ASTRO. As a proof-of-concept, we explore an in silico astrocyte to evaluate basic cell physiology features inaccessible experimentally. Our simulations suggest that currents generated by glutamate transporters or K+ channels have negligible distant effects on membrane voltage and that individual astrocytes can successfully handle extracellular K+ hotspots. We show how intracellular Ca2+ buffers affect Ca2+ waves and why the classical Ca2+ sparks-and-puffs mechanism is theoretically compatible with common readouts of astroglial Ca2+ imaging