Insights into the challenges posed by climate change and land competition to Brazil’s Midwest pulpwood market

I investigated the effect of climate change in one of the few expanding markets in the world in Brazil. In the last decades the demand for pulpwood increased from zero to 11 million tons, leading to an expansion of 700 thousand hectares of Eucalyptus plantation. In 2024, a new mill will start operating increasing the consumption of wood fiber by 8.2 million tons (+49%). I used mathematical programming to investigate how different scenarios of productivity and land will affect the market. My results showed that around 946,000 hectares (+124%) of additional timberland will be necessary in the upcoming decades. The first impact will be an increase in the production cost of around US$550 million (+16.4%) in 25 years. If the rate of land cover change remains constant, the broad development of the local market would be constrained, discouraging future investments, and reducing potential positive externalities in the region

Systems Analysis in Forestry and the Forest Industry: An Overview

This paper is a survey discussing the use of systems analytical methods in planning and decision making in the forestry and in the forest industry. The number of papers and studies discussing different applications of systems analysis in this sector is wide and rapidly increasing. However the real uses of these methods in practice is hard to predict. So there is clearly a need for detailed state-of-the-art studies at two levels: in research and in practical uses of these methods in the forest. The paper was presented at the IIASA Forest Industry Workshop, January 8-11, 1980

Optimization and performance of grinding circuits: the case of Buzwagi Gold Mine (BGM)

Buzwagi Gold Mine (BGM) is operated by Acacia Mining and located in the Lake Victoria Goldfields of central Tanzania. The mine commenced its operation since April 2009 and treats a sulphide copper-gold ore to produce gold in form of doré bars and a concentrate containing gold, copper and silver. The BGM comminution circuit includes a primary crushing stage with a gyratory crusher and a two grinding circuits using a Semi-Autogenous Grinding (SAG) mill and a ball mill. The SAG mill circuit also includes a single-deck screen and a cone crusher while the ball mill circuit utilizes hydrocyclones. Currently, the grinding circuits are inefficient in achieving the aspired product fineness of xP,80 = 125 μm even at low to normal throughputs (450-600 t/h). An evaluation and optimization study of the circuit performance was conducted to improve the product fineness through circuit surveys, experimental lab work and simulations. In three full scale sampling campaigns, size distributions and solids contents of the samples were determined at selected points in the circuit. Further, several types of breakage tests were conducted; standard Bond tests to determine ore grindability and work indices, batch grinding tests to determine parameters for breakage and selection functions , and standard ball mill tests for mineral liberation characterization by an automated mineral liberation analyzer (MLA).The tests were conducted in a size range from 0.063 to 2 mm. Then, mass balance of the circuit was calculated and the models for mills, screens and hydrocyclones were employed in MODSIM (version 3.6.24). Firstly, simulations were conducted to optimize the existing plant. Several options were evaluated such as reduction of SAG screen aperture, adjustment of cyclone feed solids content and reduction of vortex finder and apex diameters. Moreover, simulations were also evaluated for a possible modification of the existing circuit and include; partial splitting of the cyclone underflow back to SAG mill, introduction of a second classification stage as well as introduction of a second ball mill. The evaluation of breakage tests and survey data revealed the following; the Bond work index obtained for the current ore ranges between 17.20 - 18.70 kWh/t compared to 14.50 - 16.50 kWh/t which was estimated during plant design.This indicates a change in hardness of the ore during the last 7 years. Harder ore means more energy requirement for an efficient operation, the consequence of which is increased costs. Thus, a periodic review of the ore hardness for ongoing mining operation is recommended. This will help in establishing better blends as well as prediction of appropriate tonnages for the existing ore types, so as to be efficiently treated by the available plant design. The work indices of the ore blends treated during survey were correlated with their quartz content and showed a strong linear relationship (R2= 0.95). Therefore, the work index for the BGM ore could be predicted based on known quartz content of the material. Further, the model could be used as a control tool for monitoring hardness variation of the SAG mill feed. The mineral liberation studies indicated that the valuable phase (pyrite-pyrrhotite) could be liberated at relatively coarser particle sizes (200-400 µm). This implies that, there could be no problem with the efficiency of the gravity circuit for the BGM operation, where the gold contained in pyrite-pyrrhotite could be easily concentrated. However, the efficiency of flotation and cyanidation processes will still require finer feed. In overall, the liberation characteristics of the ore blends treated during survey showed minor differences. The Bond efficiency factors of 48-61 % were obtained for the BGM grinding circuit, indicating an inefficient operation. This suggests that the operation could achieve targets by lowering the throughput. Further, the SAG mill circuit was characterized by fluctuating feed size of between xF,80 =102 to 185 mm. A need for control of the feed size as well as blending ratios was recommended for an efficient operation in terms of throughput and final product size. This could be achieved through closer monitoring of the primary crusher performance and proper control of the ratios for the SAG mill feeders drawing the ore from the stockpile. The ball mill grinding efficiency was poor and could be indicated by the fraction 400 µm in the mill discharge. This was deemed due to poor hydrocyclone performance which was characterized by higher feed solids content, coarser overflow xP,80: >200 µm as well as cut sizes, xT : > 200 µm. An improvement of product fineness up to 327 µm could be achieved during the simulation and optimization of the existing design. This could be achieved by modification of the operating conditions such as reduction of SAG screen aperture from 12 mm to 10 mm, reduction of vortex finder from 280 mm to 270.3 mm, reduction of apex diameter from 150 mm to 145.6 mm as well as adjustment of the cyclone feed solids content from 66.7 to 67.1 %. Based on this result, it was concluded that the current equipment could not achieve the target product quality (i.e. xP,80 = 125 µm ). Further simulations based on flowsheet modification options showed that a second ball mill (series configuration) can help to achieve the desired product fineness as well as an increase of throughput from 618 t/h to 780 t/h. Although the circulating load increases to approximately 500 % in this configuration, it is outweighed by the benefits. Importantly, this option is cost intensive and hence may be considered as a long term solution and especially after cost-benefit analysis. Finally, the results based on optimization of the existing design is recommended as short term solution for improvement of the BGM operation. Although the fineness achieved is still low (i.e. xP,80 = 327 µm) compared to the target (i.e. xP,80 = 125 µm), this gives additional advantage in the sense that, also better hydrocyclone performance is achieved in terms of overflow product (xP,80 = 105 µm vs. > 240 µm) , cut size (xT =133.1 µm vs. > 220 µm) and circulating load (CL =350 %). The improved overflow fineness will contribute to improved efficiency for the downstream processes

Model-based optimization of a CompactCooking G2 digesting process stage

A CompactCooking™ G2 (Valmet) digesting system represents a challenging process stage to be optimized in the context of a kraft pulp mill. Its highly non-linear behavior due to liquor recycling and heat integration poses a barrier to traditional trial-and-error optimization conducted by physical lab-scale simulation. Hence, this thesis aims to design a solution based on numerical simulation and mathematical optimization, whose results can be directly applied on industrial-scale as computed optimal set-points for the supervisory control. Based on published, first-principles, pulp digester models, a customized dynamic model was developed in Matlab/Simulink to simulate a complete CompactCooking™ G2 stage. The process model is founded on Purdue wood reaction kinetics and Härkönen chips bed compaction models, and it seamlessly takes into account process characteristics mentioned above. The non-linear model was validated by comparison against historical data of an industrial unit (200 h), and then employed in the design of a steady-state optimizer for this process stage by means of linear programming. Simulation results showed very good agreement in terms of liquors residual alkali, weak black liquor solids, and blowline kappa, despite high uncertainty on disturbances data and model simplifications. However, simulated kappa showed higher sensitivity to temperature fluctuations than the plant signal, likely indicating the need for more detail when modelling heat transfer phenomena. As to the optimization goal, a base case scenario (plant steady-state) was identified from industrial data to attempt process economics optimization. The results showed a potential for increasing profit or reducing variable costs in at least 2 USD/ADt, which for a modern pulp mill represents annual benefits between 1 – 2 million USD depending on production rate and mill availability. Further, the simulation model showed remarkable results when used in a novel process analysis technique, called here simulated contribution, letting to explain the variability of blowline kappa in terms of multiple-time-scale process dynamics. In conclusion, a model-based optimization method has been successfully designed for the CompactCooking™ G2 system, and potential economic benefits should encourage industrial testing and further work to develop a real-time optimizer software technology

Optimization methodology for high COD nutrient-limited wastewaters treatment using BAS process

Optimization of biofilm activated sludge (BAS) process via mathematical modelling is an entangle activity since economic, environmental objective and technical decision must be considered. This paper presents a methodology to optimize the operational conditions of BAS process in four steps by combining dynamic simulation techniques with non-linear optimization methods and with operative decision-making criteria. Two set of variables are separately prioritized in the methodology: essential variables related to physical operation to enforce established process performance, and refinement variables related to biological processes that can generate risks of bulking, pin-point floc and rising sludge. The proposed optimization strategy is applied for the treatment of high COD wastewater under nutrient limitation using an integrated mathematical model for COD removal that include predation, hydrolysis and a simplified approach to the limiting solids flux theory in the secondary clarifier in order to facilitate the convergence of the optimization solver. The methodology is implemented in a full-scale wastewater treatment plant for a cellulose and viscose fibre mill obtaining (i) improvement of the effluent quality index (Kg pollution/m3) up to 62% and, (ii) decrease the operating cost index (€/m3) of the process up to 30% respect the regular working operational conditions of the plant. The proposed procedure can be also applied to other biological treatments treating high COD nutrient-limited industrial wastewater such as from textile and winery production among others

Modelling of a wastewater treatment plant using GPS-X

Dissertation to obtain the degree of Master in Chemical and Biochemical EngineeringThe work present in this thesis was conducted in Portucel Soporcel mill, in the industrial complex of Setúbal, and had as main objective the modelling of the treatment process of the effluents from this industry, using for this purpose the software GPS-X. This program has a clear-cut graphical interface and uses a specialized translator that converts the graphical process into material balance equations, based on dynamic models. These models allow, besides the kinetic descripton of the treatment process carried out at the WWTP, to simulate new scenarios towards the study of critical parameters for the process as well as optimization and control of the WWTP. The effluent that arrives to Portucel’s WWTP, from the pulp and paper mills of the complex, is particularly rich on fibers (solids), lignin, chlorinated and sulphur compounds, resin acids, phenols and starch. It has a brown colour due to the presence of lignin and has a high oxygen chemical demand (about 1,095 g O2/m3). The WWTP uses the activated sludge process with extended aeration. This method allows an efficient removal of organics at the same time as it minimizes the sludge production. For the modelling of the process it was necessary to collect historical data related to the WWTP’s performance over the last 3 years. This data was used as input values for the influent characterisation and as output values to achieve the treated effluent characterisation. Since the first simulation did not lead to the desired output results, it was necessary to proceed to the model calibration, by means of a more detailed study concerning the nutrient and organic fractions of the influent. Once the model was calibrated, a study of the urea flowrate was conducted. The urea is added to the influent, before the beginning of the biological oxidation, as a way to satisfy the nitrogen requirements along the treatment process. However, this flowrate was never submitted to a study that evaluated, in a higher detail, the effective requirements of this nutrient. Thus, some simulations were done using the software, by decreasing successively the value of the urea flowrate and the results obtained were analyzed. Furthermore, these simulations were validated in the WWTP itself, at Portucel, through the decrease of the urea flowrate to half the normal value. Both the simulations and Portucel’s results showed that, actually, the addition of urea is not necessary because it does not affect the treatment process in a significant way, namely in terms of the removal of chemical oxygen demand. The simulations have also showed that the concentration of nitrogen in the final effluent diminishes significantly with the reduction of the urea flowrate, which could be advantageous in an environmental point of view

Demand response within the energy-for-water-nexus - A review. ESRI WP637, October 2019

A promising tool to achieve more flexibility within power systems is demand re-sponse (DR). End-users in many strands of industry have been subject to research up to now regarding the opportunities for implementing DR programmes. One sector that has received little attention from the literature so far, is wastewater treatment. However, case studies indicate that the potential for wastewater treatment plants to provide DR services might be significant. This review presents and categorises recent modelling approaches for industrial demand response as well as for the wastewater treatment plant operation. Furthermore, the main sources of flexibility from wastewater treatment plants are presented: a potential for variable electricity use in aeration, the time-shifting operation of pumps, the exploitation of built-in redundan-cy in the system and flexibility in the sludge processing. Although case studies con-note the potential for DR from individual WWTPs, no study acknowledges the en-dogeneity of energy prices which arises from a large-scale utilisation of DR. There-fore, an integrated energy systems approach is required to quantify system and market effects effectively