A dynamic pricing model for unifying programmatic guarantee and real-time bidding in display advertising

There are two major ways of selling impressions in display advertising. They are either sold in spot through auction mechanisms or in advance via guaranteed contracts. The former has achieved a significant automation via real-time bidding (RTB); however, the latter is still mainly done over the counter through direct sales. This paper proposes a mathematical model that allocates and prices the future impressions between real-time auctions and guaranteed contracts. Under conventional economic assumptions, our model shows that the two ways can be seamless combined programmatically and the publisher's revenue can be maximized via price discrimination and optimal allocation. We consider advertisers are risk-averse, and they would be willing to purchase guaranteed impressions if the total costs are less than their private values. We also consider that an advertiser's purchase behavior can be affected by both the guaranteed price and the time interval between the purchase time and the impression delivery date. Our solution suggests an optimal percentage of future impressions to sell in advance and provides an explicit formula to calculate at what prices to sell. We find that the optimal guaranteed prices are dynamic and are non-decreasing over time. We evaluate our method with RTB datasets and find that the model adopts different strategies in allocation and pricing according to the level of competition. From the experiments we find that, in a less competitive market, lower prices of the guaranteed contracts will encourage the purchase in advance and the revenue gain is mainly contributed by the increased competition in future RTB. In a highly competitive market, advertisers are more willing to purchase the guaranteed contracts and thus higher prices are expected. The revenue gain is largely contributed by the guaranteed selling.Comment: Chen, Bowei and Yuan, Shuai and Wang, Jun (2014) A dynamic pricing model for unifying programmatic guarantee and real-time bidding in display advertising. In: The Eighth International Workshop on Data Mining for Online Advertising, 24 - 27 August 2014, New York Cit

Decision Trees for Optimization Display Campaigns for Conversion

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Driven Marketing, specialization in Marketing IntelligenceDigital technology's evolution has impacted the marketing landscape and brought both opportunities and challenges for advertisers. Traditional marketing strategies have been shown to be supported by, and in some cases replaced by digital marketing techniques. Even though there are many different channels and forms for online advertising today, programmatic advertising has shown a lot of potential, particularly in terms of automation and algorithm development for buying ad space in real-time. This study aims to explore the application of Decision Tree Algorithms in optimizing display campaigns for conversion and the competitive benefits they provide over traditional optimization methods, on the programmatic exchange. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the Decision Tree Algorithm, the research will be divided into three phases: phases 1, 2 and 3. Where phases 1 and 2 will focus on testing different bid modifier ranges to reach the best outcome. And, in phase 3 the two campaigns, utilizing the Decision Tree Algorithm and the Standard Optimization, will be directly compared with relevant KPIs, in an A/B test environment. The results obtained showed that after the systematic testing process of multiple bid modifier ranges, it was possible to determine that the best-performing one has a range of 0,1 to 1,5, which, in phase 3, outperformed the standard optimization and generated more 21% clicks, 54% conversions and a 28% higher conversion rate

Lift-Based Bidding in Ad Selection

Real-time bidding (RTB) has become one of the largest online advertising markets in the world. Today the bid price per ad impression is typically decided by the expected value of how it can lead to a desired action event (e.g., registering an account or placing a purchase order) to the advertiser. However, this industry standard approach to decide the bid price does not consider the actual effect of the ad shown to the user, which should be measured based on the performance lift among users who have been or have not been exposed to a certain treatment of ads. In this paper, we propose a new bidding strategy and prove that if the bid price is decided based on the performance lift rather than absolute performance value, advertisers can actually gain more action events. We describe the modeling methodology to predict the performance lift and demonstrate the actual performance gain through blind A/B test with real ad campaigns in an industry-leading Demand-Side Platform (DSP). We also discuss the relationship between attribution models and bidding strategies. We prove that, to move the DSPs to bid based on performance lift, they should be rewarded according to the relative performance lift they contribute.Comment: AAAI 201

Suljettujen online-mainosalustojen strategiat — tapaukset Google ja Facebook

This thesis studies closed ad platforms in the modern online advertising industry. The research in the field is still nascent and the concept of a closed ad platform doesn’t exist. The objective of the research was to discover the main factors determining the revenue of online advertising platforms and to understand why some publishers choose to establish their own closed ad platforms instead of selling their inventory for third-party ad platforms. The concept of a closed ad platform is defined leveraging the existing online advertising literature and the platform governance structure theory. Using the case study method, Google and Facebook were chosen as the cases as they have driven most of the innovation in the field and quickly gained significant market share. In total, 47 people were interviewed for this study, most of them working for advanced online advertisers. Based on the interviews, a microeconomic mathematic formula is created for modeling an ad platform’s net advertising revenue. The formula is used to identify the five main drivers of an ad platform’s revenue an each of them are studied in depth. The results suggest that the most important revenue drivers the ad platforms can affect are access to an active user base, the efficiency of ad serving and the comprehensiveness of measurement. Setting up a closed ad platform requires significant investments from a publisher and should be only done if it can improve the advertisers’ results. After it’s been established, a closed platform can leverage its position to collect user data and structured business data to optimize its performance further. The results provide a structured understanding of the main dynamics in the industry that can be used in decision-making and a basis for future research on closed ad platforms.Tämä diplomityö tutkii suljettuja mainosalustoja nykyaikaisella online-mainonta-alalla. Alan tutkimus on vielä aluillaan ja suljetun mainosalustan konseptia ei ole olemassa. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli löytää online-mainosalustojen liikevaihdon määrittävät tekijät ja ymmärtää miksi jotkut julkaisijat valitsevat omien suljettujen mainosalustojen perustamisen mainospaikkojen kolmansien osapuolien mainosalustoille myymisen sijaan. Suljetun mainosalustan konsepti määritellään olemassaolevaa online- mainontakirjallisuutta ja alustojen hallintarakenneteoriaa hyödyntäen. Tapaustutkimusmenetelmää käyttäen, Google ja Facebook valittiin tapauksiksi, sillä ne ovat ajaneet eniten innovaatioita alalla ja nopeasti saavuttaneet merkittävän markkinaosuuden. Yhteensä 47 henkilöä haastateltiin tätä tutkimusta varten, useimmat heistä edistyneiden online-mainostajien työntekijöitä. Haastattelujen perusteella luodaan mikrotaloudellinen matemaattinen kaava mainosalustan nettoliikevaihdon mallintamiseksi. Kaavaa käytetään tunnistamaan mainosalustan liikevaihdon viisi pääkomponenttia, ja kuhunkin niistä perehdytään syvällisemmin. Tulokset viittaavat, että tärkeimmät liikevaihdon ajurit, joihin mainosalustat voivat vaikuttaa ovat pääsy aktiiviseen käyttäjäkantaan, mainosten näyttämisen tehokkuus ja mittaamisen kattavuus. Suljetun mainosalustan perustaminen vaatii merkittäviä investointeja julkaisijalta ja tulisi tehdä ainoastaan, jos sillä voidaan parantaa mainostajien tuloksia. Suljetun alustan perustamisen jälkeen sen positiota voidaan hyödyntää käyttäjädatan ja strukturoidun liiketoimintadatan keräämiseksi suorituskyvyn edelleen optimoimiseksi. Tulokset tarjoavat toimialan päädynamiikkojen ymmärryksen, jota voidaan käyttää päätöksenteossa sekä pohjana suljettujen mainosalustojen edelleen tutkimiseksi tulevaisuudessa

Managing Risk of Bidding in Display Advertising

In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4% in offline experiments and up to 17.5% in an online A/B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies

Smart Pacing for Effective Online Ad Campaign Optimization

In targeted online advertising, advertisers look for maximizing campaign performance under delivery constraint within budget schedule. Most of the advertisers typically prefer to impose the delivery constraint to spend budget smoothly over the time in order to reach a wider range of audiences and have a sustainable impact. Since lots of impressions are traded through public auctions for online advertising today, the liquidity makes price elasticity and bid landscape between demand and supply change quite dynamically. Therefore, it is challenging to perform smooth pacing control and maximize campaign performance simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a smart pacing approach in which the delivery pace of each campaign is learned from both offline and online data to achieve smooth delivery and optimal performance goals. The implementation of the proposed approach in a real DSP system is also presented. Experimental evaluations on both real online ad campaigns and offline simulations show that our approach can effectively improve campaign performance and achieve delivery goals.Comment: KDD'15, August 10-13, 2015, Sydney, NSW, Australi