Tiresias: Predicting Security Events Through Deep Learning

With the increased complexity of modern computer attacks, there is a need for defenders not only to detect malicious activity as it happens, but also to predict the specific steps that will be taken by an adversary when performing an attack. However this is still an open research problem, and previous research in predicting malicious events only looked at binary outcomes (e.g., whether an attack would happen or not), but not at the specific steps that an attacker would undertake. To fill this gap we present Tiresias, a system that leverages Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to predict future events on a machine, based on previous observations. We test Tiresias on a dataset of 3.4 billion security events collected from a commercial intrusion prevention system, and show that our approach is effective in predicting the next event that will occur on a machine with a precision of up to 0.93. We also show that the models learned by Tiresias are reasonably stable over time, and provide a mechanism that can identify sudden drops in precision and trigger a retraining of the system. Finally, we show that the long-term memory typical of RNNs is key in performing event prediction, rendering simpler methods not up to the task

Prediction of drive-by download attacks on Twitter

The popularity of Twitter for information discovery, coupled with the automatic shortening of URLs to save space, given the 140 character limit, provides cybercriminals with an opportunity to obfuscate the URL of a malicious Web page within a tweet. Once the URL is obfuscated, the cybercriminal can lure a user to click on it with enticing text and images before carrying out a cyber attack using a malicious Web server. This is known as a drive-by download. In a drive-by download a user’s computer system is infected while interacting with the malicious endpoint, often without them being made aware the attack has taken place. An attacker can gain control of the system by exploiting unpatched system vulnerabilities and this form of attack currently represents one of the most common methods employed. In this paper we build a machine learning model using machine activity data and tweet metadata to move beyond post-execution classification of such URLs as malicious, to predict a URL will be malicious with 0.99 F-measure (using 10-fold cross-validation) and 0.833 (using an unseen test set) at 1 second into the interaction with the URL. Thus providing a basis from which to kill the connection to the server before an attack has completed and proactively blocking and preventing an attack, rather than reacting and repairing at a later date

Emotions behind drive-by download propagation on Twitter

Twitter has emerged as one of the most popular platforms to get updates on entertainment and current events. However, due to its 280 character restriction and automatic shortening of URLs, it is continuously targeted by cybercriminals to carry out drive-by download attacks, where a user’s system is infected by merely visiting a Web page. Popular events that attract a large number of users are used by cybercriminals to infect and propagate malware by using popular hashtags and creating misleading tweets to lure users to malicious Web pages. A drive-by download attack is carried out by obfuscating a malicious URL in an enticing tweet and used as clickbait to lure users to a malicious Web page. In this paper we answer the following two questions: Why are certain malicious tweets retweeted more than others? Do emotions reflecting in a tweet drive virality? We gathered tweets from seven different sporting events over three years and identified those tweets that used to carry to out a drive-by download attack. From the malicious (N=105,642) and benign (N=169,178) data sample identified, we built models to predict information flow size and survival. We define size as the number of retweets of an original tweet, and survival as the duration of the original tweet’s presence in the study window. We selected the zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) regression method for our analysis based on the distribution exhibited by our dependent size measure and the comparison of results with other predictive models. We used the Cox regression technique to model the survival of information flows as it estimates proportional hazard rates for independent measures. Our results show that both social and content factors are statistically significant for the size and survival of information flows for both malicious and benign tweets. In the benign data sample, positive emotions and positive sentiment reflected in the tweet significantly predict size and survival. In contrast, for the malicious data sample, negative emotions, especially fear, are associated with both size and survival of information flows

Real-time classification of malicious URLs on Twitter using Machine Activity Data

Massive online social networks with hundreds of millions of active users are increasingly being used by Cyber criminals to spread malicious software (malware) to exploit vulnerabilities on the machines of users for personal gain. Twitter is particularly susceptible to such activity as, with its 140 character limit, it is common for people to include URLs in their tweets to link to more detailed information, evidence, news reports and so on. URLs are often shortened so the endpoint is not obvious before a person clicks the link. Cyber criminals can exploit this to propagate malicious URLs on Twitter, for which the endpoint is a malicious server that performs unwanted actions on the person’s machine. This is known as a drive-by-download. In this paper we develop a machine classification system to distinguish between malicious and benign URLs within seconds of the URL being clicked (i.e. ‘real-time’). We train the classifier using machine activity logs created while interacting with URLs extracted from Twitter data collected during a large global event – the Superbowl – and test it using data from another large sporting event – the Cricket World Cup. The results show that machine activity logs produce precision performances of up to 0.975 on training data from the first event and 0.747 on a test data from a second event. Furthermore, we examine the properties of the learned model to explain the relationship between machine activity and malicious software behaviour, and build a learning curve for the classifier to illustrate that very small samples of training data can be used with only a small detriment to performance

A taxonomy of attacks and a survey of defence mechanisms for semantic social engineering attacks

Social engineering is used as an umbrella term for a broad spectrum of computer exploitations that employ a variety of attack vectors and strategies to psychologically manipulate a user. Semantic attacks are the specific type of social engineering attacks that bypass technical defences by actively manipulating object characteristics, such as platform or system applications, to deceive rather than directly attack the user. Commonly observed examples include obfuscated URLs, phishing emails, drive-by downloads, spoofed web- sites and scareware to name a few. This paper presents a taxonomy of semantic attacks, as well as a survey of applicable defences. By contrasting the threat landscape and the associated mitigation techniques in a single comparative matrix, we identify the areas where further research can be particularly beneficial

Robustness of Image-Based Malware Analysis

In previous work, “gist descriptor” features extracted from images have been used in malware classification problems and have shown promising results. In this research, we determine whether gist descriptors are robust with respect to malware obfuscation techniques, as compared to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) trained directly on malware images. Using the Python Image Library (PIL), we create images from malware executables and from malware that we obfuscate. We conduct experiments to compare classifying these images with a CNN as opposed to extracting the gist descriptor features from these images to use in classification. For the gist descriptors, we consider a variety of classification algorithms including k-nearest neighbors, random forest, support vector machine, and multi-layer perceptron. We find that gist descriptors are more robust than CNNs, with respect to the obfuscation techniques that we consider

Twitter Bots’ Detection with Benford’s Law and Machine Learning

Online Social Networks (OSNs) have grown exponentially in terms of active users and have now become an influential factor in the formation of public opinions. For this reason, the use of bots and botnets for spreading misinformation on OSNs has become a widespread concern. Identifying bots and botnets on Twitter can require complex statistical methods to score a profile based on multiple features. Benford’s Law, or the Law of Anomalous Numbers, states that, in any naturally occurring sequence of numbers, the First Significant Leading Digit (FSLD) frequency follows a particular pattern such that they are unevenly distributed and reducing. This principle can be applied to the first-degree egocentric network of a Twitter profile to assess its conformity to such law and, thus, classify it as a bot profile or normal profile. This paper focuses on leveraging Benford’s Law in combination with various Machine Learning (ML) classifiers to identify bot profiles on Twitter. In addition, a comparison with other statistical methods is produced to confirm our classification results

Impact of Location Spoofing Attacks on Performance Prediction in Mobile Networks

Performance prediction in wireless mobile networks is essential for diverse purposes in network management and operation. Particularly, the position of mobile devices is crucial to estimating the performance in the mobile communication setting. With its importance, this paper investigates mobile communication performance based on the coordinate information of mobile devices. We analyze a recent 5G data collection and examine the feasibility of location-based performance prediction. As location information is key to performance prediction, the basic assumption of making a relevant prediction is the correctness of the coordinate information of devices given. With its criticality, this paper also investigates the impact of position falsification on the ML-based performance predictor, which reveals the significant degradation of the prediction performance under such attacks, suggesting the need for effective defense mechanisms against location spoofing threats

Word Embeddings for Fake Malware Generation

Signature and anomaly-based techniques are the fundamental methods to detect malware. However, in recent years this type of threat has advanced to become more complex and sophisticated, making these techniques less effective. For this reason, researchers have resorted to state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to combat the threat of information security. Nevertheless, despite the integration of the machine learning models, there is still a shortage of data in training that prevents these models from performing at their peak. In the past, generative models have been found to be highly effective at generating image-like data that are similar to the actual data distribution. In this paper, we leverage the knowledge of generative modeling on opcode sequences and aim to generate malware samples by taking advantage of the contextualized embeddings from BERT. We obtained promising results when differentiating between real and generated samples. We observe that generated malware has such similar characteristics to actual malware that the classifiers are having difficulty in distinguishing between the two, in which the classifiers falsely identify the generated malware as actual malware almost of the time

A Blockchain-Based Retribution Mechanism for Collaborative Intrusion Detection

Collaborative intrusion detection approach uses the shared detection signature between the collaborative participants to facilitate coordinated defense. In the context of collaborative intrusion detection system (CIDS), however, there is no research focusing on the efficiency of the shared detection signature. The inefficient detection signature costs not only the IDS resource but also the process of the peer-to-peer (P2P) network. In this paper, we therefore propose a blockchain-based retribution mechanism, which aims to incentivize the participants to contribute to verifying the efficiency of the detection signature in terms of certain distributed consensus. We implement a prototype using Ethereum blockchain, which instantiates a token-based retribution mechanism and a smart contract-enabled voting-based distributed consensus. We conduct a number of experiments built on the prototype, and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach