17,581 research outputs found

    Annotated Bibliography: Anticipation

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    Adaptive microservice scaling for elastic applications

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    Data-driven methods for real-time voltage stability assessment

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    Voltage instability is a phenomenon that limits the operation and the transmission capacity of a power system. An operation state close to the security limits enables a cost-effective utilization of the system but it could also make the system more vulnerable to disturbances. The transition towards a more sustainable energy system, with a growing share of renewable generation, will increase the complexity in voltage stability assessment and cause significant planning and operational challenges for transmission system operators.The overall aim of this thesis is to develop a real-time voltage stability assessment tool which can be used to assist transmission system operators in monitoring voltage security limits and to provide early warnings of possible voltage instability. The thesis first analyzes the difference between static and dynamic voltage security margins, both theoretically and numerically. The results of the analysis show that power systems with a high share of loads with fast restoration dynamics, such as induction motors or power electronic controlled loads, may cause conventional static methods to assess the voltage security margins to become unreliable. Methods relying on a dynamic assessment of the security margin are in these circumstances more reliable. However, dynamic assessment of voltage security margins is computationally challenging and can in most cases not be estimated in the time frame required by system operators in critical situations. To overcome this challenge, a machine learning-based method for fast and robust computing of the dynamic voltage security margin is proposed and tested in this thesis. The method, based on artificial neural networks, can provide real-time estimations of voltage security margins, which are then validated using a search algorithm and actual time-domain simulations. The two-step approach is proposed to mitigate any inconsistency issues associated with neural networks under new or unseen operating conditions. Finally, a new method for voltage instability prediction is developed. The method is proposed to be used as an online tool for system operators to predict the system’s near-future stability condition given the current operating state. The method uses a more advanced neural network based on long-short term memory. The results from case studies using the Nordic 32 test system show good performance and the network can accurately, within only a few seconds, predict voltage instability events in almost all test cases

    Neural Network Memory Architectures for Autonomous Robot Navigation

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    This paper highlights the significance of including memory structures in neural networks when the latter are used to learn perception-action loops for autonomous robot navigation. Traditional navigation approaches rely on global maps of the environment to overcome cul-de-sacs and plan feasible motions. Yet, maintaining an accurate global map may be challenging in real-world settings. A possible way to mitigate this limitation is to use learning techniques that forgo hand-engineered map representations and infer appropriate control responses directly from sensed information. An important but unexplored aspect of such approaches is the effect of memory on their performance. This work is a first thorough study of memory structures for deep-neural-network-based robot navigation, and offers novel tools to train such networks from supervision and quantify their ability to generalize to unseen scenarios. We analyze the separation and generalization abilities of feedforward, long short-term memory, and differentiable neural computer networks. We introduce a new method to evaluate the generalization ability by estimating the VC-dimension of networks with a final linear readout layer. We validate that the VC estimates are good predictors of actual test performance. The reported method can be applied to deep learning problems beyond robotics

    Intelligent Fault Analysis in Electrical Power Grids

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    Power grids are one of the most important components of infrastructure in today's world. Every nation is dependent on the security and stability of its own power grid to provide electricity to the households and industries. A malfunction of even a small part of a power grid can cause loss of productivity, revenue and in some cases even life. Thus, it is imperative to design a system which can detect the health of the power grid and take protective measures accordingly even before a serious anomaly takes place. To achieve this objective, we have set out to create an artificially intelligent system which can analyze the grid information at any given time and determine the health of the grid through the usage of sophisticated formal models and novel machine learning techniques like recurrent neural networks. Our system simulates grid conditions including stimuli like faults, generator output fluctuations, load fluctuations using Siemens PSS/E software and this data is trained using various classifiers like SVM, LSTM and subsequently tested. The results are excellent with our methods giving very high accuracy for the data. This model can easily be scaled to handle larger and more complex grid architectures.Comment: In proceedings of the 29th IEEE International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence (ICTAI) 2017 (full paper); 6 pages; 13 figure

    Modeling and Optimization of Active Distribution Network Operation Based on Deep Learning

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    Applications of Computational Intelligence to Power Systems

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    In power system operation and control, the basic goal is to provide users with quality electricity power in an economically rational degree for power systems, and to ensure their stability and reliability. However, the increased interconnection and loading of the power system along with deregulation and environmental concerns has brought new challenges for electric power system operation, control, and automation. In the liberalised electricity market, the operation and control of a power system has become a complex process because of the complexity in modelling and uncertainties. Computational intelligence (CI) is a family of modern tools for solving complex problems that are difficult to solve using conventional techniques, as these methods are based on several requirements that may not be true all of the time. Developing solutions with these “learning-based” tools offers the following two major advantages: the development time is much shorter than when using more traditional approaches, and the systems are very robust, being relatively insensitive to noisy and/or missing data/information, known as uncertainty

    Application of Conventional Feedforward and Deep Neural Networks to Power Distribution System State Estimation and State Forecasting

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    Classical neural networks such as feedforward multilayer perceptron models (MLPs) are well established as universal approximators and as such, show promise in applications such as static state estimation in power transmission systems. This research investigates the application of conventional neural networks (MLPs) and deep learning based models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) to mitigate challenges in power distribution system state estimation and forecasting based upon conventional analytic methods. The ability of MLPs to perform regression to perform power system state estimation will be investigated. MLPs are considered based upon their promise to learn complex functional mapping between datasets with many features. CNNs and LSTMs are considered based upon their promise to perform time-series forecasting by learning the autocorrelation of the dataset being predicted. The performance of MLPs will be presented in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) between actual and predicted voltage magnitude and voltage phase angles and training execution time for distribution system state estimation (DSSE). The performance of CNNs, and LSTMs will be presented in terms of RMSE between actual and predicted real power demand and execution time when performing distribution system state forecasting (DSSF). Additionally, Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Processes are used to optimize MLPs for regression. An IEEE standard 34-bus test system is used to illustrate the proposed conventional neural network and deep learning methods and their effectiveness to perform power system state estimation and power system state forecasting respectively
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