77,367 research outputs found

    Development, test and comparison of two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA) models: A case of healthcare infrastructure location

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    When planning a new development, location decisions have always been a major issue. This paper examines and compares two modelling methods used to inform a healthcare infrastructure location decision. Two Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) models were developed to support the optimisation of this decision-making process, within a National Health Service (NHS) organisation, in the UK. The proposed model structure is based on seven criteria (environment and safety, size, total cost, accessibility, design, risks and population profile) and 28 sub-criteria. First, Evidential Reasoning (ER) was used to solve the model, then, the processes and results were compared with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It was established that using ER or AHP led to the same solutions. However, the scores between the alternatives were significantly different; which impacted the stakeholders‟ decision-making. As the processes differ according to the model selected, ER or AHP, it is relevant to establish the practical and managerial implications for selecting one model or the other and providing evidence of which models best fit this specific environment. To achieve an optimum operational decision it is argued, in this study, that the most transparent and robust framework is achieved by merging ER process with the pair-wise comparison, an element of AHP. This paper makes a defined contribution by developing and examining the use of MCDA models, to rationalise new healthcare infrastructure location, with the proposed model to be used for future decision. Moreover, very few studies comparing different MCDA techniques were found, this study results enable practitioners to consider even further the modelling characteristics to ensure the development of a reliable framework, even if this means applying a hybrid approach

    Structuring Decisions Under Deep Uncertainty

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    Innovative research on decision making under ‘deep uncertainty’ is underway in applied fields such as engineering and operational research, largely outside the view of normative theorists grounded in decision theory. Applied methods and tools for decision support under deep uncertainty go beyond standard decision theory in the attention that they give to the structuring of decisions. Decision structuring is an important part of a broader philosophy of managing uncertainty in decision making, and normative decision theorists can both learn from, and contribute to, the growing deep uncertainty decision support literature

    Understanding and Managing Behavioural Risks -The Case of Food Risks Caused by Malpractice in Poultry Production

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    The probability that actors in economic relationships break rules increases with the profits they thus expect to earn. It decreases with the probability and level of short- and long-term losses resulting from disclosure. It also decreases with the level of social context factors and intrinsic values which shield actors from yielding to economic temptations. This paper assesses the relative merits of various scientific approaches concerned with risks in economic relationships and outlines their contribution to the study of opportunistic rule-breaking. Since the identification of (misdirected) economic incentives faced by firms and individuals represents the starting point for a systematic analysis of opportunism in any field, we also outline a microeconomic approach that systematically provides this crucial information. The approach is applied to the problem of food quality and safety threatened by opportunistic malpractice of food business operators. Its essentials are illustrated through a study which systematically searches for the temptations to break production-related rules in the poultry industries.asymmetric information, control theories, economic misconduct, game theory, moral hazard, principal-agent model, opportunism, protective factors, relational risks, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, A13, K32, K42,

    Boom and Bust Behavior: On the Persistence of Strategic Decision Biases and their Collective Outcome

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    This work discusses the boom and bust dynamics which are a common feature of a large range of different industries. especially but not only new born ones. The common managerial behavior underpinning such dynamics is aggressive capacity expansion in the boom period ultimately yielding excess capacity turning the boom into bust. This paper examines the underlying cognitive and behavioral factors responsible for strategic decisions driving boom and busts, nested in the interaction between cognitive biases and capacity adjustment delay, and together tries to identify some tentative heuristics which tend to mitigate them. At the same time, we shall conjecturally conclude, there might be a positive collective side to boom and bust behavio r fostering accumulation of knowledge and physical infrastructure, especially regarding new technological paradigms.Boom and bust; Overconfidence; Capacity adjustment; Adaptive behavior

    A Theoretical Framework for Operational Risk Management and Opportunity Realisation

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    Advanced probability models are used to evaluate risks and to justify decisions where reliable data is available, e.g. reinsurance, money markets and nuclear energy. Operational risk management – the trade-offs made to run an efficient and effective organisation – has much less, and lower quality, data. In the first part of the paper, observations are made about the factors shaping operational risk management: the increasing shift of influence from tangible to intangible variables; the intuitive manner in which most operational risk is managed; the dynamic nature of the trade-offs balancing risk and reward; and in particular, that the critical factor in managing risk and opportunity is often how each choice feels rather than how a rational choice should be made. An economic framework is then used to examine the optimal relationship between operational risk and reward. Although operational risk management has many investment characteristics, players are bias towards minimising risks rather than maximising opportunities. This is because of uncertainty over the variables, and better knowledge of costs than rewards. The conclusion is that an overt, systematic approach to managing operational risk will be more effective and efficient than allowing an informal, intuitive process to operate. This requires that assumptions and the judgement process must be made explicit; that the value of intangibles should be appreciated; and that the knowledge gained by individuals in managing risk should be codified and retained by the host organisation.

    Bayesian Approaches to the Precautionary Principle

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    Cognitive Constraints and Reversibility of International Economic Institutions. The Case of the European Monetary System

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    This paper builds on the case study of the birth and death of the fixed exchange rate system in Western Europe, prior to the launch of the Euro. The analysis of this case aims to highlight how "new" international economic institutions may suffer the processes of "preference reversals" and thereby implode. De facto, the paper focuses on the cognitive factors that are deemed to have played an important role in determining the originating decision-making processes in favour of a system of fixed exchange rates and, then, in determining the abandonment of that system. After briefly explaining events such as the "currency snake" and the "European Monetary System" (EMS), the paper highlights how processes of this nature are conditional on the extent of the limits of rationality of the decision-making agents, with the consequence of producing cognitive imbalances. These imbalances are determined by the "fuzziness" with which agents evaluate not only opposing objectives, in particular those of employment and the balance of payments, but especially objectives achievable in an intertemporal dimension (Walliser, 2008: ch. 4). In fact, we illustrate how the actual inflationary differentials between the countries concerned determine the imbalances in the balances of payments. We also highlight how the policies to bring inflation under control can determine changes in the electorate in the preferences defined in the area of economic policies. The collapse of the monetary snake and the European Monetary System is representative of such a change in preferences. The conceptual framework of analysis used is that of temporary equilibria.

    An architecture for organisational decision support

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    The Decision Support (DS) topic of the Network Enabled Capability for Through Life Systems Engineering (NECTISE) project aims to provide organisational through-life decision support for the products and services that BAE Systems deliver. The topic consists of five streams that cover resource capability management, decision management, collaboration, change prediction and integration. A proposed architecture is presented for an Integrated Decision Support Environment (IDSE) that combines the streams to provide a structured approach to addressing a number of issues that have been identified by BAE Systems business units as being relevant to DS: uncertainty and risk, shared situational awareness, types of decision making, decision tempo, triggering of decisions, and support for autonomous decision making. The proposed architecture will identify how either individuals or groups of decision makers (including autonomous agents) would be utilised on the basis of their capability within the requirements of the scenario to collaboratively solve the decision problem. Features of the scenario such as time criticality, required experience level, the need for justification, and conflict management, will be addressed within the architecture to ensure that the most appropriate decision management support (system/naturalistic/hybrid) is provided. In addition to being reliant on a number of human factors issues, the decision making process is also reliant on a number of information issues: overload, consistency, completeness, uncertainty and evolution, which will be discussed within the context of the architecture

    Three alternative (?) stories on the late 20th-century rise of game theory

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    The paper presents three different reconstructions of the 1980s boom of game theory and its rise to the present status of indispensable tool-box for modern economics. The first story focuses on the Nash refinements literature and on the development of Bayesian games. The second emphasizes the role of antitrust case law, and in particular of the rehabilitation, via game theory, of some traditional antitrust prohibitions and limitations which had been challenged by the Chicago approach. The third story centers on the wealth of issues classifiable under the general headline of "mechanism design" and on the game theoretical tools and methods which have been applied to tackle them. The bottom lines are, first, that the three stories need not be viewed as conflicting, but rather as complementary, and, second, that in all stories a central role has been played by John Harsanyi and Bayesian decision theory.game theory; mechanism design; refinements of Nash equilibrium; antitrust law; John Harsanyi

    The Theory of the Firm and Its Critics A Stocktaking and Assessment

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    Ever since its emergence in the 1970s the modern economic or Coasian theory of the firm has been discussed and challenged by sociologists, heterodox economists, management scholars, and other critics. This chapter reviews and assesses these critiques, focusing on behavioral issues (bounded rationality and motivation), process (including path dependence and the selection argument), entrepreneurship, and the challenge from knowledge-based theories of the firm.
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