5,201 research outputs found
Importance Functions for RESTART Simulation of General Jackson Networks
RESTART is an accelerated simulation technique that allows the evaluation of extremely low probabilities. In this method a number of simulation retrials are performed when the process enters regions of the state space where the chance of occurrence of the rare event is higher. These regions are defined by means of a function of the system state called the importance function. Guidelines for obtaining suitable importance functions and formulas for the importance function of two-stage networks were provided in previous papers. In this paper, we obtain effective importance functions for RESTART simulation of Jackson networks where the rare set is defined as the number of customers in a particular (‘target’) node exceeding a predefined threshold. Although some rough approximations and assumptions are used to derive the formulas of the importance functions, they are good enough to estimate accurately very low probabilities for different network topologies within short computational time
A comparison of RESTART implementations
The RESTART method is a widely applicable simulation technique for the estimation of rare event probabilities. The method is based on the idea to restart the simulation in certain system states, in order to generate more occurrences of the rare event. One of the main questions for any RESTART implementation is how and when to restart the simulation, in order to achieve the most accurate results for a fixed simulation effort. We investigate and compare, both theoretically and empirically, different implementations of the RESTART method. We find that the original RESTART implementation, in which each path is split into a fixed number of copies, may not be the most efficient one. It is generally better to fix the total simulation effort for each stage of the simulation. Furthermore, given this effort, the best strategy is to restart an equal number of times from each state, rather than to restart each time from a randomly chosen stat
Analysis of a Splitting Estimator for Rare Event Probabilities in Jackson Networks
We consider a standard splitting algorithm for the rare-event simulation of
overflow probabilities in any subset of stations in a Jackson network at level
n, starting at a fixed initial position. It was shown in DeanDup09 that a
subsolution to the Isaacs equation guarantees that a subexponential number of
function evaluations (in n) suffice to estimate such overflow probabilities
within a given relative accuracy. Our analysis here shows that in fact
O(n^{2{\beta}+1}) function evaluations suffice to achieve a given relative
precision, where {\beta} is the number of bottleneck stations in the network.
This is the first rigorous analysis that allows to favorably compare splitting
against directly computing the overflow probability of interest, which can be
evaluated by solving a linear system of equations with O(n^{d}) variables.Comment: 23 page
Boosting search by rare events
Randomized search algorithms for hard combinatorial problems exhibit a large
variability of performances. We study the different types of rare events which
occur in such out-of-equilibrium stochastic processes and we show how they
cooperate in determining the final distribution of running times. As a
byproduct of our analysis we show how search algorithms are optimized by random
restarts.Comment: 4 pages, 3 eps figures. References update
Variance Reduction Techniques in Monte Carlo Methods
Monte Carlo methods are simulation algorithms to estimate a numerical quantity in a statistical model of a real system. These algorithms are executed by computer programs. Variance reduction techniques (VRT) are needed, even though computer speed has been increasing dramatically, ever since the introduction of computers. This increased computer power has stimulated simulation analysts to develop ever more realistic models, so that the net result has not been faster execution of simulation experiments; e.g., some modern simulation models need hours or days for a single ’run’ (one replication of one scenario or combination of simulation input values). Moreover there are some simulation models that represent rare events which have extremely small probabilities of occurrence), so even modern computer would take ’for ever’ (centuries) to execute a single run - were it not that special VRT can reduce theses excessively long runtimes to practical magnitudes.common random numbers;antithetic random numbers;importance sampling;control variates;conditioning;stratied sampling;splitting;quasi Monte Carlo
The transform likelihood ratio method for rare event simulation with heavy tails
We present a novel method, called the transform likelihood ratio (TLR) method, for estimation of rare event probabilities with heavy-tailed distributions. Via a simple transformation ( change of variables) technique the TLR method reduces the original rare event probability estimation with heavy tail distributions to an equivalent one with light tail distributions. Once this transformation has been established we estimate the rare event probability via importance sampling, using the classical exponential change of measure or the standard likelihood ratio change of measure. In the latter case the importance sampling distribution is chosen from the same parametric family as the transformed distribution. We estimate the optimal parameter vector of the importance sampling distribution using the cross-entropy method. We prove the polynomial complexity of the TLR method for certain heavy-tailed models and demonstrate numerically its high efficiency for various heavy-tailed models previously thought to be intractable. We also show that the TLR method can be viewed as a universal tool in the sense that not only it provides a unified view for heavy-tailed simulation but also can be efficiently used in simulation with light-tailed distributions. We present extensive simulation results which support the efficiency of the TLR method
A Taxonomy of Data Grids for Distributed Data Sharing, Management and Processing
Data Grids have been adopted as the platform for scientific communities that
need to share, access, transport, process and manage large data collections
distributed worldwide. They combine high-end computing technologies with
high-performance networking and wide-area storage management techniques. In
this paper, we discuss the key concepts behind Data Grids and compare them with
other data sharing and distribution paradigms such as content delivery
networks, peer-to-peer networks and distributed databases. We then provide
comprehensive taxonomies that cover various aspects of architecture, data
transportation, data replication and resource allocation and scheduling.
Finally, we map the proposed taxonomy to various Data Grid systems not only to
validate the taxonomy but also to identify areas for future exploration.
Through this taxonomy, we aim to categorise existing systems to better
understand their goals and their methodology. This would help evaluate their
applicability for solving similar problems. This taxonomy also provides a "gap
analysis" of this area through which researchers can potentially identify new
issues for investigation. Finally, we hope that the proposed taxonomy and
mapping also helps to provide an easy way for new practitioners to understand
this complex area of research.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures, Technical Repor
Splitting for Rare Event Simulation: A Large Deviation Approach to Design and Analysis
Particle splitting methods are considered for the estimation of rare events.
The probability of interest is that a Markov process first enters a set
before another set , and it is assumed that this probability satisfies a
large deviation scaling. A notion of subsolution is defined for the related
calculus of variations problem, and two main results are proved under mild
conditions. The first is that the number of particles generated by the
algorithm grows subexponentially if and only if a certain scalar multiple of
the importance function is a subsolution. The second is that, under the same
condition, the variance of the algorithm is characterized (asymptotically) in
terms of the subsolution. The design of asymptotically optimal schemes is
discussed, and numerical examples are presented.Comment: Submitted to Stochastic Processes and their Application
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