Adaptive Statistical Evaluation Tools for Equity Ranking Models

A major challenge in the investment management business is to identify which stocks are likely to outperform in the future, and which are likely to perform relatively poorly. To this end the strategy adopted by Genus is to identify factors (auxiliary information about the stock such as earnings-to-price ratio or dividend yield) that they believe are associated with future out-performance (i.e. factors that have predictive ability). The best of these factors are then combined (Genus use a weighted average) into a model which is used to rank the universe of stocks month-by-month. This ranking is then used to as the input to a trading strategy, resulting in a modified portfolio. Genus had provided us with sample data, consisting of just over 12 years worth of monthly returns on a universe of 60 stocks, along with time series of 34 factors for each of the stocks. Using these data, the approach was to build software (MATLAB) models for: 1. ranking the stocks based on factor information; 2. implementing a trading strategy based on a stock ranking and assessing the performance of a given trading strategy by looking at measures such as hit ratio, information ratio and spread. The IPSW team implemented a simplified trading strategy of selling the entire portfolio each month, and using the proceeds to invest equally in the top 20% of stocks as given by the computed ranking. They also implemented the following measures of portfolio performance: excess return, hit ratio and information ratio

Transfer Meets Hybrid: A Synthetic Approach for Cross-Domain Collaborative Filtering with Text

Collaborative filtering (CF) is the key technique for recommender systems (RSs). CF exploits user-item behavior interactions (e.g., clicks) only and hence suffers from the data sparsity issue. One research thread is to integrate auxiliary information such as product reviews and news titles, leading to hybrid filtering methods. Another thread is to transfer knowledge from other source domains such as improving the movie recommendation with the knowledge from the book domain, leading to transfer learning methods. In real-world life, no single service can satisfy a user's all information needs. Thus it motivates us to exploit both auxiliary and source information for RSs in this paper. We propose a novel neural model to smoothly enable Transfer Meeting Hybrid (TMH) methods for cross-domain recommendation with unstructured text in an end-to-end manner. TMH attentively extracts useful content from unstructured text via a memory module and selectively transfers knowledge from a source domain via a transfer network. On two real-world datasets, TMH shows better performance in terms of three ranking metrics by comparing with various baselines. We conduct thorough analyses to understand how the text content and transferred knowledge help the proposed model.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, a full version for the WWW 2019 short pape

Some Estimators for the Population Mean Using Auxiliary Information Under Ranked Set Sampling

Auxiliary information is used along with ranking information to derive several classes of estimators to estimate the population mean of a variable of interest based on RSS (ranked set sample). The properties of these newly suggested estimators were examined. Comparisons between special cases of these estimators and other known estimators are made using a real data set. Some of the new estimators are superior to the old ones in terms of bias and mean square error

Covariate-assisted ranking and screening for large-scale two-sample inference

Two-sample multiple testing has a wide range of applications. The conventionalpractice first reduces the original observations to a vector of p-values and then chooses a cutoffto adjust for multiplicity. However, this data reduction step could cause significant loss ofinformation and thus lead to suboptimal testing procedures.We introduce a new framework fortwo-sample multiple testing by incorporating a carefully constructed auxiliary variable in inferenceto improve the power. A data-driven multiple-testing procedure is developed by employinga covariate-assisted ranking and screening (CARS) approach that optimally combines the informationfrom both the primary and the auxiliary variables. The proposed CARS procedureis shown to be asymptotically valid and optimal for false discovery rate control. The procedureis implemented in the R package CARS. Numerical results confirm the effectiveness of CARSin false discovery rate control and show that it achieves substantial power gain over existingmethods. CARS is also illustrated through an application to the analysis of a satellite imagingdata set for supernova detection

Interacting Attention-gated Recurrent Networks for Recommendation

Capturing the temporal dynamics of user preferences over items is important for recommendation. Existing methods mainly assume that all time steps in user-item interaction history are equally relevant to recommendation, which however does not apply in real-world scenarios where user-item interactions can often happen accidentally. More importantly, they learn user and item dynamics separately, thus failing to capture their joint effects on user-item interactions. To better model user and item dynamics, we present the Interacting Attention-gated Recurrent Network (IARN) which adopts the attention model to measure the relevance of each time step. In particular, we propose a novel attention scheme to learn the attention scores of user and item history in an interacting way, thus to account for the dependencies between user and item dynamics in shaping user-item interactions. By doing so, IARN can selectively memorize different time steps of a user's history when predicting her preferences over different items. Our model can therefore provide meaningful interpretations for recommendation results, which could be further enhanced by auxiliary features. Extensive validation on real-world datasets shows that IARN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods.Comment: Accepted by ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM), 201