Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected <it>a priori </it>determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision.</p> <p>Application</p> <p>We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be advantageous to choose clusters using reasoned hypotheses, based on both probability and geographical approaches, in contrast to a conventional, random cluster selection strategy.</p

Movement analytics for sustainable mobility

Mobility is central to urbanity, and urbanity is central to our common future as the world\u27s population crowds into urban areas. This is creating a global urban mobility crisis due to the unsustainability of our 20th century transportation systems for an urban world. Fortunately, the science and planning of urban mobility is transforming away from infrastructure as the solution towards a sustainable mobility paradigm that manages rather than encourages travel, diminishes mobility and accessibility inequities, and reduces the harms of mobility to people and environments. In this essay, I discuss the contributions over the past decade of movement analytics to sustainable mobility science and planning. I also highlight two major challenges to sustainable mobility that should be addressed over the next decade

Reclaiming the virtual community for spatial cultures: Functional generality and cultural specificity at the interface of building and street

This paper engages with the formation of spatial cultures at a micro-morphological level to advance a general argument for the need to further study the contribution of building morphology to the collective realm of the quotidian city. It suggests how the macro-scale approach in analysing spatiotemporal phenomena in urban space lacks a sensitivity to historical urban processes at the micro-scale where the generic and culturally specific aspects of the diachronic city interact to give rise to actual communities. This recalibration of scales, it is claimed, is an epistemological prerequisite for urban design theories to engage productively with the social theory of space. The paper problematizes the idea of the building-street interface and its implications for conditioning urban encounters at the threshold of architectural and urban scales. The argument develops the space syntax concept of ‘virtual community’ as a means to understand how the theoretical capacity for individual buildings to aggregate into a streetscape becomes culturally particular at the level of users’ co-presence in physical space. It looks at the rules of built form aggregation and their implications for shaping the building-street interface in terms of probabilistic encounters over historical time. The argument is then illustrated through an analysis of the historical building-street connectivity as a cultural articulation of spatial-morphogenetic processes. Two urban settings are examined: terraced house morphologies in London and row houses in Manhattan. It is proposed that a micro-morphological approach to the description and analysis of the building-street interface helps to supply a ‘missing link’ in theorising space-society relationship as part of a broader project of rethinking what 'design' means in an urban context

Double Whammy - How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent

The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindness cause forecasts to fall short of actual costs. Firstly, optimism bias has been linked to effects of deception and delusion, which is caused by taking the inside-view and ignoring distributional information when making decisions. Secondly, we argued before that Black Swan Blindness makes decision-makers ignore outlying events even if decisions and judgements are based on the outside view. Using a sample of 1,471 ICT projects with a total value of USD 241 billion - we answer the question: Can we show the different effects of Normal Performance, Delusion, and Deception? We calculated the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of (actual-forecast)/forecast. Our results show that the CDF changes at two tipping points - the first one transforms an exponential function into a Gaussian bell curve. The second tipping point transforms the bell curve into a power law distribution with the power of 2. We argue that these results show that project performance up to the first tipping point is politically motivated and project performance above the second tipping point indicates that project managers and decision-makers are fooled by random outliers, because they are blind to thick tails. We then show that Black Swan ICT projects are a significant source of uncertainty to an organisation and that management needs to be aware of

A probabilistic model of human-robot spatial interaction using a qualitative trajectory calculus

In this paper we propose a probabilistic model for Human-Robot Spatial Interaction (HRSI) using a Qualitative Trajectory Calculus (QTC). In particular, we will build on previous work representing HRSI as a Markov chain of QTC states and evolve this to an approach using a Hidden Markov Model representation. Our model accounts for the invalidity of certain transitions within the QTC to reduce the complexity of the probabilistic model and to ensure state sequences in accordance to this representational framework. We show the appropriateness of our approach by using the probabilistic model to encode different HRSI behaviours observed in a human-robot interaction study and show how the models can be used to classify these behaviours reliably. Copyright © 2014, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. All rights reserved

A computational model of human-robot spatial interactions based on a qualitative trajectory calculus

In this paper we propose a probabilistic sequential model of Human-Robot Spatial Interaction (HRSI) using a well-established Qualitative Trajectory Calculus (QTC) to encode HRSI between a human and a mobile robot in a meaningful, tractable, and systematic manner. Our key contribution is to utilise QTC as a state descriptor and model HRSI as a probabilistic sequence of such states. Apart from the sole direction of movements of human and robot modelled by QTC, attributes of HRSI like proxemics and velocity profiles play vital roles for the modelling and generation of HRSI behaviour. In this paper, we particularly present how the concept of proxemics can be embedded in QTC to facilitate richer models. To facilitate reasoning on HRSI with qualitative representations, we show how we can combine the representational power of QTC with the concept of proxemics in a concise framework, enriching our probabilistic representation by implicitly modelling distances. We show the appropriateness of our sequential model of QTC by encoding different HRSI behaviours observed in two spatial interaction experiments. We classify these encounters, creating a comparative measurement, showing the representational capabilities of the model