Random Surfing Without Teleportation

In the standard Random Surfer Model, the teleportation matrix is necessary to ensure that the final PageRank vector is well-defined. The introduction of this matrix, however, results in serious problems and imposes fundamental limitations to the quality of the ranking vectors. In this work, building on the recently proposed NCDawareRank framework, we exploit the decomposition of the underlying space into blocks, and we derive easy to check necessary and sufficient conditions for random surfing without teleportation.Comment: 13 pages. Published in the Volume: "Algorithms, Probability, Networks and Games, Springer-Verlag, 2015". (The updated version corrects small typos/errors

Agents, Bookmarks and Clicks: A topical model of Web traffic

Analysis of aggregate and individual Web traffic has shown that PageRank is a poor model of how people navigate the Web. Using the empirical traffic patterns generated by a thousand users, we characterize several properties of Web traffic that cannot be reproduced by Markovian models. We examine both aggregate statistics capturing collective behavior, such as page and link traffic, and individual statistics, such as entropy and session size. No model currently explains all of these empirical observations simultaneously. We show that all of these traffic patterns can be explained by an agent-based model that takes into account several realistic browsing behaviors. First, agents maintain individual lists of bookmarks (a non-Markovian memory mechanism) that are used as teleportation targets. Second, agents can retreat along visited links, a branching mechanism that also allows us to reproduce behaviors such as the use of a back button and tabbed browsing. Finally, agents are sustained by visiting novel pages of topical interest, with adjacent pages being more topically related to each other than distant ones. This modulates the probability that an agent continues to browse or starts a new session, allowing us to recreate heterogeneous session lengths. The resulting model is capable of reproducing the collective and individual behaviors we observe in the empirical data, reconciling the narrowly focused browsing patterns of individual users with the extreme heterogeneity of aggregate traffic measurements. This result allows us to identify a few salient features that are necessary and sufficient to interpret the browsing patterns observed in our data. In addition to the descriptive and explanatory power of such a model, our results may lead the way to more sophisticated, realistic, and effective ranking and crawling algorithms.Comment: 10 pages, 16 figures, 1 table - Long version of paper to appear in Proceedings of the 21th ACM conference on Hypertext and Hypermedi

Shuffling a Stacked Deck: The Case for Partially Randomized Ranking of Search Engine Results

In-degree, PageRank, number of visits and other measures of Web page popularity significantly influence the ranking of search results by modern search engines. The assumption is that popularity is closely correlated with quality, a more elusive concept that is difficult to measure directly. Unfortunately, the correlation between popularity and quality is very weak for newly-created pages that have yet to receive many visits and/or in-links. Worse, since discovery of new content is largely done by querying search engines, and because users usually focus their attention on the top few results, newly-created but high-quality pages are effectively ``shut out,'' and it can take a very long time before they become popular. We propose a simple and elegant solution to this problem: the introduction of a controlled amount of randomness into search result ranking methods. Doing so offers new pages a chance to prove their worth, although clearly using too much randomness will degrade result quality and annul any benefits achieved. Hence there is a tradeoff between exploration to estimate the quality of new pages and exploitation of pages already known to be of high quality. We study this tradeoff both analytically and via simulation, in the context of an economic objective function based on aggregate result quality amortized over time. We show that a modest amount of randomness leads to improved search results

HypTrails: A Bayesian Approach for Comparing Hypotheses About Human Trails on the Web

When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web.Comment: Published in the proceedings of WWW'1

PageRank Optimization by Edge Selection

The importance of a node in a directed graph can be measured by its PageRank. The PageRank of a node is used in a number of application contexts - including ranking websites - and can be interpreted as the average portion of time spent at the node by an infinite random walk. We consider the problem of maximizing the PageRank of a node by selecting some of the edges from a set of edges that are under our control. By applying results from Markov decision theory, we show that an optimal solution to this problem can be found in polynomial time. Our core solution results in a linear programming formulation, but we also provide an alternative greedy algorithm, a variant of policy iteration, which runs in polynomial time, as well. Finally, we show that, under the slight modification for which we are given mutually exclusive pairs of edges, the problem of PageRank optimization becomes NP-hard.Comment: 30 pages, 3 figure