Bearing prognostics with non-trendable behavior based on shock pulse method and frequency analysis

Bearings are one of the most important parts of rotating machineries. Their fault diagnosis and prognosis are critical for the maintenance decision making. In reality, few bearings are working under constant operating conditions. So, robust features which are not sensitive to the operating condition are needed for bearing prognostics. Sometimes, even if they are working under stationary conditions, common-used degradation features are non-trendable and cannot be used to predict the remaining useful lives. In order to address these two issues, shock pulse method and frequency analysis are combined to detect the incipient fault and predict the remaining useful lives. Maximum normalized shock value which is extracted using shock pulse method can reflect the degradation process more robust under non-stationary conditions. And frequency analysis can identify the change points of degradation states when degradation features are non-trendable. Finally, a case study is conducted where the proposed methods are demonstrated by analyzing the 2012 PHM challenge data sets

Process fault prediction and prognosis based on a hybrid technique

The present study introduces a novel hybrid methodology for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and fault prediction and prognosis (FPP). The hybrid methodology combines both data-driven and process knowledge driven techniques. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and the auxiliary codes detect and predict the abnormalities based on process history while the Bayesian Network (BN) diagnoses the root cause of the fault based on process knowledge. In the first step, the system performance is evaluated for fault detection and diagnosis and in the second step, prediction and prognosis are evaluated. In both cases, an HMM trained with Normal Operating Condition data is used to determine the log-likelihoods (LL) of each process history data string. It is then used to develop the Conditional Probability Tables of BN while the structure of BN is developed based on process knowledge. Abnormal behaviour of the system is identified through HMM. The time of detection of an abnormality, respective LL value, and the probabilities of being in the process condition at the time of detection are used to generate the likelihood evidence to BN. The updated BN is then used to diagnose the root cause by considering the respective changes of the probabilities. Performance of the new technique is validated with published data of Tennessee Eastman Process. Eight of the ten selected faults were successfully detected and diagnosed. The same set of faults were predicted and prognosed accurately at different levels of maximum added noise

Unsupervised Methods for Condition-Based Maintenance in Non-Stationary Operating Conditions

Maintenance and operation of modern dynamic engineering systems requires the use of robust maintenance strategies that are reliable under uncertainty. One such strategy is condition-based maintenance (CBM), in which maintenance actions are determined based on the current health of the system. The CBM framework integrates fault detection and forecasting in the form of degradation modeling to provide real-time reliability, as well as valuable insight towards the future health of the system. Coupled with a modern information platform such as Internet-of-Things (IoT), CBM can deliver these critical functionalities at scale. The increasingly complex design and operation of engineering systems has introduced novel problems to CBM. Characteristics of these systems - such as the unavailability of historical data, or highly dynamic operating behaviour - has rendered many existing solutions infeasible. These problems have motivated the development of new and self-sufficient - or in other words - unsupervised CBM solutions. The issue, however, is that many of the necessary methods required by such frameworks have yet to be proposed within the literature. Key gaps pertaining to the lack of suitable unsupervised approaches for the pre-processing of non-stationary vibration signals, parameter estimation for fault detection, and degradation threshold estimation, need to be addressed in order to achieve an effective implementation. The main objective of this thesis is to propose set of three novel approaches to address each of the aforementioned knowledge gaps. A non-parametric pre-processing and spectral analysis approach, termed spectral mean shift clustering (S-MSC) - which applies mean shift clustering (MSC) to the short time Fourier transform (STFT) power spectrum for simultaneous de-noising and extraction of time-varying harmonic components - is proposed for the autonomous analysis of non-stationary vibration signals. A second pre-processing approach, termed Gaussian mixture model operating state decomposition (GMM-OSD) - which uses GMMs to cluster multi-modal vibration signals by their respective, unknown operating states - is proposed to address multi-modal non-stationarity. Applied in conjunction with S-MSC, these two approaches form a robust and unsupervised pre-processing framework tailored to the types of signals found in modern engineering systems. The final approach proposed in this thesis is a degradation detection and fault prediction framework, termed the Bayesian one class support vector machine (B-OCSVM), which tackles the key knowledge gaps pertaining to unsupervised parameter and degradation threshold estimation by re-framing the traditional fault detection and degradation modeling problem as a degradation detection and fault prediction problem. Validation of the three aforementioned approaches is performed across a wide range of machinery vibration data sets and applications, including data obtained from two full-scale field pilots located at Toronto Pearson International Airport. The first of which is located on the gearbox of the LINK Automated People Mover (APM) train at Toronto Pearson International Airport; and, the second which is located on a subset of passenger boarding tunnel pre-conditioned air units (PCA) in Terminal 1 of Pearson airport. Results from validation found that the proposed pre-processing approaches and combined pre-processing framework provides a robust and computationally efficient and robust methodology for the analysis of non-stationary vibration signals in unsupervised CBM. Validation of the B-OCSVM framework showed that the proposed parameter estimation approaches enables the earlier detection of the degradation process compared to existing approaches, and the proposed degradation threshold provides a reasonable estimate of the fault manifestation point. Holistically, the approaches proposed in thesis provide a crucial step forward towards the effective implementation of unsupervised CBM in complex, modern engineering systems

Computational Algorithm for Dynamic Hybrid Bayesian Network in On-line System Health Management Applications

With the increasing complexity of today's engineering systems that contain various component dependencies and degradation behaviors, there has been increasing interest in on-line System Health Management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor (via sensors and other methods of observation) system software, and hardware components for detection and diagnostic of safety-critical systems. Bayesian Network (BN) and their extension for time-series modeling known as Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) have been shown by recent studies to be capable of providing a unified framework for system health diagnosis and prognosis. BN has many modeling features, such as multi-state variables, noisy gates, dependent failures, and general posterior analysis. BN also allows a compact representation of the temporal and functional dependencies among system components. However, one of the barriers to applying BN in real-world problems is limitation in adequately handle "hybrid models", which contain both discrete and continuous variables, with both static and time-dependent failure distributions. This research presents a new modeling approach, computational algorithm, and an example application for health monitoring and learning in on-line SHM. A hybrid DBN is introduced to represent complex engineering systems with underlying physics of failure by modeling a theoretical or empirical degradation model with continuous variables. The methodology is designed to be flexible and intuitive, and scalable from small, localized functionality to large complex dynamic systems. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is optimized using a pre-computation strategy and dynamic programming for on-line monitoring of system health. Proposed Monitoring and Anomaly Detection algorithm uses pattern recognition to improve failure detection and estimation of Remaining Useful Life (RUL). Pre-computation inference database enables efficient on-line learning and maintenance decision-making. The scope of this research includes a new modeling approach, computation algorithm, and an example application for on-line SHM

Development of an advanced artificial intelligent reliability analysis tool to enhance ship operations and maintenance activities

No Abstract availableNo Abstract availabl

Establishment of a novel predictive reliability assessment strategy for ship machinery

There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme.There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme

Real-time Data Analytics for Condition Monitoring of Complex Industrial Systems

Modern industrial systems are now fitted with several sensors for condition monitoring. This is advantageous because these sensors can provide mass amounts of data that have the potential for aiding in tasks such as fault detection, diagnosis, and prognostics. However, the information valuable for performing these tasks is often clouded in noise and must be mined from high-dimensional data structures. Therefore, this dissertation presents a data analytics framework for performing these condition monitoring tasks using high-dimensional data. Demonstrations of this framework are detailed for challenges related to power generation systems in automobiles, power plants, and aircraft engines. These implementations leverage data collected from state-of-the-art, industry class test-rigs. Results indicate the ability of this framework to develop effective methodologies for condition monitoring of complex systems.Ph.D

Unsupervised Monitoring of Machining Processes

Machining processes, such as milling, drilling, turning and grinding, concern the removal of material from a workpiece using a cutting tool. These processes are sensitive to parameters such as cutting tool properties, workpiece materials, coolant application, machine selection, fixturing and cutting parameters. The focus of the work in this thesis is to devise a method to monitor the changing conditions of a machining process over time in order to detect faulty machining conditions and diagnose fault types and causes. A key aim of this thesis is to develop a monitoring regime that has minimal cost of implementation and upkeep in a production environment, therefore an unsupervised monitoring system which applies non-intrusive sensing hardware is proposed