A System for Induction of Oblique Decision Trees

This article describes a new system for induction of oblique decision trees. This system, OC1, combines deterministic hill-climbing with two forms of randomization to find a good oblique split (in the form of a hyperplane) at each node of a decision tree. Oblique decision tree methods are tuned especially for domains in which the attributes are numeric, although they can be adapted to symbolic or mixed symbolic/numeric attributes. We present extensive empirical studies, using both real and artificial data, that analyze OC1's ability to construct oblique trees that are smaller and more accurate than their axis-parallel counterparts. We also examine the benefits of randomization for the construction of oblique decision trees.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for an online appendix and other files accompanying this articl

Integrating Learning from Examples into the Search for Diagnostic Policies

This paper studies the problem of learning diagnostic policies from training examples. A diagnostic policy is a complete description of the decision-making actions of a diagnostician (i.e., tests followed by a diagnostic decision) for all possible combinations of test results. An optimal diagnostic policy is one that minimizes the expected total cost, which is the sum of measurement costs and misdiagnosis costs. In most diagnostic settings, there is a tradeoff between these two kinds of costs. This paper formalizes diagnostic decision making as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The paper introduces a new family of systematic search algorithms based on the AO* algorithm to solve this MDP. To make AO* efficient, the paper describes an admissible heuristic that enables AO* to prune large parts of the search space. The paper also introduces several greedy algorithms including some improvements over previously-published methods. The paper then addresses the question of learning diagnostic policies from examples. When the probabilities of diseases and test results are computed from training data, there is a great danger of overfitting. To reduce overfitting, regularizers are integrated into the search algorithms. Finally, the paper compares the proposed methods on five benchmark diagnostic data sets. The studies show that in most cases the systematic search methods produce better diagnostic policies than the greedy methods. In addition, the studies show that for training sets of realistic size, the systematic search algorithms are practical on todays desktop computers

Solving Multiclass Learning Problems via Error-Correcting Output Codes

Multiclass learning problems involve finding a definition for an unknown function f(x) whose range is a discrete set containing k &gt 2 values (i.e., k ``classes''). The definition is acquired by studying collections of training examples of the form [x_i, f (x_i)]. Existing approaches to multiclass learning problems include direct application of multiclass algorithms such as the decision-tree algorithms C4.5 and CART, application of binary concept learning algorithms to learn individual binary functions for each of the k classes, and application of binary concept learning algorithms with distributed output representations. This paper compares these three approaches to a new technique in which error-correcting codes are employed as a distributed output representation. We show that these output representations improve the generalization performance of both C4.5 and backpropagation on a wide range of multiclass learning tasks. We also demonstrate that this approach is robust with respect to changes in the size of the training sample, the assignment of distributed representations to particular classes, and the application of overfitting avoidance techniques such as decision-tree pruning. Finally, we show that---like the other methods---the error-correcting code technique can provide reliable class probability estimates. Taken together, these results demonstrate that error-correcting output codes provide a general-purpose method for improving the performance of inductive learning programs on multiclass problems.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

Using rule extraction to improve the comprehensibility of predictive models.

Whereas newer machine learning techniques, like artifficial neural net-works and support vector machines, have shown superior performance in various benchmarking studies, the application of these techniques remains largely restricted to research environments. A more widespread adoption of these techniques is foiled by their lack of explanation capability which is required in some application areas, like medical diagnosis or credit scoring. To overcome this restriction, various algorithms have been proposed to extract a meaningful description of the underlying `blackbox' models. These algorithms' dual goal is to mimic the behavior of the black box as closely as possible while at the same time they have to ensure that the extracted description is maximally comprehensible. In this research report, we first develop a formal definition of`rule extraction and comment on the inherent trade-off between accuracy and comprehensibility. Afterwards, we develop a taxonomy by which rule extraction algorithms can be classiffied and discuss some criteria by which these algorithms can be evaluated. Finally, an in-depth review of the most important algorithms is given.This report is concluded by pointing out some general shortcomings of existing techniques and opportunities for future research.Models; Model; Algorithms; Criteria; Opportunities; Research; Learning; Neural networks; Networks; Performance; Benchmarking; Studies; Area; Credit; Credit scoring; Behavior; Time;

Identifying Mislabeled Training Data

This paper presents a new approach to identifying and eliminating mislabeled training instances for supervised learning. The goal of this approach is to improve classification accuracies produced by learning algorithms by improving the quality of the training data. Our approach uses a set of learning algorithms to create classifiers that serve as noise filters for the training data. We evaluate single algorithm, majority vote and consensus filters on five datasets that are prone to labeling errors. Our experiments illustrate that filtering significantly improves classification accuracy for noise levels up to 30 percent. An analytical and empirical evaluation of the precision of our approach shows that consensus filters are conservative at throwing away good data at the expense of retaining bad data and that majority filters are better at detecting bad data at the expense of throwing away good data. This suggests that for situations in which there is a paucity of data, consensus filters are preferable, whereas majority vote filters are preferable for situations with an abundance of data

Surrender triggers in life insurance: classification and risk predictions

This paper shows that some policy features are crucial to explain the decision of the policyholder to surrender her contract. We point it out by applying two segmentation models to a life insurance portfolio: the Logistic Regression model and the Classification And Regression Trees model. Protection as well as Savings lines of business are impacted, and results clearly explicit that the profit benefit option is highly discrimi- nant. We develop the study with endowment products. First we present the models and discuss their assumptions and limits. Then we test different policy features and policyholder's characteristics to be lapse triggers so as to segment a portfolio in risk classes regarding the surrender choice : duration and profit benefit option are essential. Finally, we explore the main dfferences of both models in terms of operational results.

A Model Approximation Scheme for Planning in Partially Observable Stochastic Domains

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a natural model for planning problems where effects of actions are nondeterministic and the state of the world is not completely observable. It is difficult to solve POMDPs exactly. This paper proposes a new approximation scheme. The basic idea is to transform a POMDP into another one where additional information is provided by an oracle. The oracle informs the planning agent that the current state of the world is in a certain region. The transformed POMDP is consequently said to be region observable. It is easier to solve than the original POMDP. We propose to solve the transformed POMDP and use its optimal policy to construct an approximate policy for the original POMDP. By controlling the amount of additional information that the oracle provides, it is possible to find a proper tradeoff between computational time and approximation quality. In terms of algorithmic contributions, we study in details how to exploit region observability in solving the transformed POMDP. To facilitate the study, we also propose a new exact algorithm for general POMDPs. The algorithm is conceptually simple and yet is significantly more efficient than all previous exact algorithms.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

Query DAGs: A Practical Paradigm for Implementing Belief-Network Inference

We describe a new paradigm for implementing inference in belief networks, which consists of two steps: (1) compiling a belief network into an arithmetic expression called a Query DAG (Q-DAG); and (2) answering queries using a simple evaluation algorithm. Each node of a Q-DAG represents a numeric operation, a number, or a symbol for evidence. Each leaf node of a Q-DAG represents the answer to a network query, that is, the probability of some event of interest. It appears that Q-DAGs can be generated using any of the standard algorithms for exact inference in belief networks (we show how they can be generated using clustering and conditioning algorithms). The time and space complexity of a Q-DAG generation algorithm is no worse than the time complexity of the inference algorithm on which it is based. The complexity of a Q-DAG evaluation algorithm is linear in the size of the Q-DAG, and such inference amounts to a standard evaluation of the arithmetic expression it represents. The intended value of Q-DAGs is in reducing the software and hardware resources required to utilize belief networks in on-line, real-world applications. The proposed framework also facilitates the development of on-line inference on different software and hardware platforms due to the simplicity of the Q-DAG evaluation algorithm. Interestingly enough, Q-DAGs were found to serve other purposes: simple techniques for reducing Q-DAGs tend to subsume relatively complex optimization techniques for belief-network inference, such as network-pruning and computation-caching.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

Rule-based Machine Learning Methods for Functional Prediction

We describe a machine learning method for predicting the value of a real-valued function, given the values of multiple input variables. The method induces solutions from samples in the form of ordered disjunctive normal form (DNF) decision rules. A central objective of the method and representation is the induction of compact, easily interpretable solutions. This rule-based decision model can be extended to search efficiently for similar cases prior to approximating function values. Experimental results on real-world data demonstrate that the new techniques are competitive with existing machine learning and statistical methods and can sometimes yield superior regression performance.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file