Study of real-time traffic state estimation and short-term prediction of signalized arterial network considering heterogeneous information sources

Compared with a freeway network, real-time traffic state estimation and prediction of a signalized arterial network is a challenging yet under-studied field. Starting from discussing the arterial traffic flow dynamics, this study proposes a novel framework for real-time traffic state estimation and short-term prediction for signalized corridors. Particle filter techniques are used to integrate field measurements from different sources to improve the accuracy and robustness of the model. Several comprehensive numerical studies based on both real world and simulated datasets showed that the proposed model can generate reliable estimation and short-term prediction of different traffic states including queue length, flow density, speed and travel time with a high degree of accuracy. The proposed model can serve as the key component in both ATIS (Advanced Traveler's Information System) and proactive traffic control system

Utilizing Simulated Vehicle Trajectory Data from Connected Vehicles to Characterize Performance Measures on an Arterial After an Impactful Incident

Traffic incidents are unforeseen events known to affect traffic flow because they reduce the capacity of an arterial corridor segment and normally generate a temporary bottleneck. Identification of retiming requirements to enhance traffic signal operations when an incident occurs depends on operations-oriented traffic signal performance measurements. When effective and real-time traffic signal performance metrics are employed at traffic control centers, delays, fuel use, and air pollution may all be decreased. The majority of currently available traffic signal performance evaluations are based on high-resolution traffic signal controller event data, which gives data on an intersection-by-intersection basis but requires a substantial upfront expenditure. The necessary detecting and communication equipment also involves costly and periodic maintenance. Additionally, the full manifestation of connected vehicles (CVs) is fast approaching with efforts in place to accelerate the adaptation of CVs and their infrastructures. CV technologies have enormous potential to improve traffic mobility and safety. CVs can provide abundant traffic data that is not otherwise captured by roadway detectors or other methods of traffic data collection. Since the observation is independent of any space restrictions and not impacted by queue discharge and buildup, CV data offers more comprehensive and reliable data that can be used to estimate various traffic signal performance measures. This thesis proposes a conceptual CV simulation framework intended to ascertain the effectiveness of CV trajectory-based measures in characterizing an arterial corridor incident, such as a vehicle crash. Using a four-intersection corridor with different signal timing plans, a microscopic simulation model was created in Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO), Vehicles in Network Simulation (Veins) and Objective Modular Network Testbed in C++ (OMNeT++) platforms. Furthermore, an algorithm for CVs that defines, detects and disseminates a vehicle crash incident to other vehicles and a roadside unit (RSU) was developed. In the thesis, it is demonstrated how visual performance metrics with CV data may be used to identify an incident. This thesis proposes that traffic signal performance metrics, such as progression quality, split failure, platoon ratios, and safety surrogate measures (SSMs), may be generated using CV trajectory data. The results show that the recommended approaches with access to CV trajectory data would help both performance assessment and operation of traffic control systems. Unlike the current state of the practice (fixed detection technology), the developed conceptual framework can detect incidents that are not captured by intersection-vicinity-limited detectors while requiring immediate attention

Various Methods for Queue Length and Traffic Volume Estimation Using Probe Vehicle Trajectories

Probe vehicles, like mobile sensors, can provide rich information about traffic conditions in transportation networks. The rapid development of connected vehicle technology and the emergence of ride-hailing services have enabled the collection of a huge amount of trajectory data of the probe vehicles. Attribute to the scale and the accessibility, the trajectory data have become a potential substitute for the widely used fixed-location sensors in terms of the performance measures of the transportation networks. There has been some literature estimating traffic volume and queue length at signalized intersections using the trajectory data. However, some of the existing methods require the prior information about the distribution of queue lengths and the penetration rate of the probe vehicles, which might vary a lot both spatially and temporally and usually are not known in real life. Some other methods can only work when the penetration rate of the probe vehicles is sufficiently high. To overcome the limitations of the existing literature, this paper proposes a series of novel methods for queue length and traffic volume estimation. The validation results show that the methods are accurate enough for mid-term and long-term performance measures and traffic signal control, even when the penetration rate is very low. Therefore, the methods are ready for large-scale real-field applications.Comment: Transportation network sensing using probe vehicle trajectorie

Characterizing Queue Dynamics at Signalized Intersections From Probe Vehicle Data

Probe vehicles instrumented with location-tracking technologies have become increasingly popular for collecting traffic flow data. While probe vehicle data have been used for estimating speeds and travel times, there has been limited research on predicting queuing dynamics from such data. In this research, a methodology is developed for identifying the travel lanes of the GPS-instrumented vehicles when they are standing in a queue at signalized intersections with multilane approaches. In particular, the proposed methodology exploits the unequal queue lengths across the lanes to infer the specific lanes the probe vehicles occupy. Various supervised and unsupervised clustering methods were developed and tested on data generated from a microsimulation model. The generated data included probe vehicle positions and shockwave speeds predicated on their trajectories. Among the tested methods, a Bayesian approach that employs probability density functions estimated by bivariate statistical mixture models was found to be effective in identifying the lanes. The results from lane identification were then used to predict queue lengths for each travel lane. Subsequently, the trajectories for non-probe vehicles within the queue were predicted. As a potential application, fuel consumption for all vehicles in the queue is estimated and evaluated for accuracy. The accuracies of the models for lane identification. queue length prediction, and fuel consumption estimation were evaluated at varying levels of demand and probe-vehicle market penetrations. In general, as the market penetration increases, the accuracy improves. For example. when the market penetration rate is about 40%, the queue length estimation accuracy reaches 90%. The dissertation includes various numerical experiments and the performance of the models under numerous scenarios

Real-time Traffic State Assessment using Multi-source Data

The normal flow of traffic is impeded by abnormal events and the impacts of the events extend over time and space. In recent years, with the rapid growth of multi-source data, traffic researchers seek to leverage those data to identify the spatial-temporal dynamics of traffic flow and proactively manage abnormal traffic conditions. However, the characteristics of data collected by different techniques have not been fully understood. To this end, this study presents a series of studies to provide insight to data from different sources and to dynamically detect real-time traffic states utilizing those data. Speed is one of the three traffic fundamental parameters in traffic flow theory that describe traffic flow states. While the speed collection techniques evolve over the past decades, the average speed calculation method has not been updated. The first section of this study pointed out the traditional harmonic mean-based average speed calculation method can produce erroneous results for probe-based data. A new speed calculation method based on the fundamental definition was proposed instead. The second section evaluated the spatial-temporal accuracy of a different type of crowdsourced data - crowdsourced user reports and revealed Waze user behavior. Based on the evaluation results, a traffic detection system was developed to support the dynamic detection of incidents and traffic queues. A critical problem with current automatic incident detection algorithms (AIDs) which limits their application in practice is their heavy calibration requirements. The third section solved this problem by proposing a selfevaluation module that determines the occurrence of traffic incidents and serves as an autocalibration procedure. Following the incident detection, the fourth section proposed a clustering algorithm to detect the spatial-temporal movements of congestion by clustering crowdsource reports. This study contributes to the understanding of fundamental parameters and expands the knowledge of multi-source data. It has implications for future speed, flow, and density calculation with data collection technique advancements. Additionally, the proposed dynamic algorithms allow the system to run automatically with minimum human intervention thus promote the intelligence of the traffic operation system. The algorithms not only apply to incident and queue detection but also apply to a variety of detection systems

What Is an Effective Way to Measure Arterial Demand When It Exceeds Capacity?

This project focused on developing and evaluating methods for estimating demand volume for oversaturated corridors. Measuring demand directly with vehicle sensors is not possible when demand is larger than capacity for an extended period, as the queue grows beyond the sensor, and the flow measurements at a given point cannot exceed the capacity of the section. The main objective of the study was to identify and develop methods that could be implemented in practice based on readily available data. To this end, two methods were proposed: an innovative method based on shockwave theory; and the volume delay function adapted from the Highway Capacity Manual. Both methods primarily rely on probe vehicle speeds (e.g., from INRIX) as the input data and the capacity of the segment or bottleneck being analyzed. The proposed methods were tested with simulation data and validated based on volume data from the field. The results show both methods are effective for estimating the demand volume and produce less than 4% error when tested with field data

Real-time estimation of lane-based queue lengths at isolated signalized junctions

In this study, we develop a real-time estimation approach for lane-based queue lengths. Our aim is to determine the numbers of queued vehicles in each lane, based on detector information at isolated signalized junctions. The challenges involved in this task are to identify whether there is a residual queue at the start time of each cycle and to determine the proportions of lane-to-lane traffic volumes in each lane. Discriminant models are developed based on time occupancy rates and impulse memories, as calculated by the detector and signal information from a set of upstream and downstream detectors. To determine the proportions of total traffic volume in each lane, the downstream arrivals for each cycle are estimated by using the Kalman filter, which is based on upstream arrivals and downstream discharges collected during the previous cycle. Both the computer simulations and the case study of real-world traffic show that the proposed method is robust and accurate for the estimation of lane-based queue lengths in real time under a wide range of traffic conditions. Calibrated discriminant models play a significant role in determining whether there are residual queued vehicles in each lane at the start time of each cycle. In addition, downstream arrivals estimated by the Kalman filter enhance the accuracy of the estimates by minimizing any error terms caused by lane-changing behavior.postprin

Estimation and Control of Traffic Relying on Vehicular Connectivity

Vehicular traffic flow is essential, yet complicated to analyze. It describes the interplay among vehicles and with the infrastructure. A better understanding of traf-fic would benefit both individuals and the whole society in terms of improving safety, energy efficiency, and reducing environmental impacts. A large body of research ex-ists on estimation and control of vehicular traffic in which, however, vehicles were assumed not to be able to share information due to the limits of technology. With the development of wireless communication and various sensor devices, Connected Vehicles(CV) are emerging which are able to detect, access, and share information with each other and with the infrastructure in real time. Connected Vehicle Technology (CVT) has been attracting more and more attentions from different fields. The goal of this dissertation is to develop approaches to estimate and control vehicular traffic as well as individual vehicles relying on CVT. On one hand, CVT sig-nificantly enriches the data from individuals and the traffic, which contributes to the accuracy of traffic estimation algorithms. On the other hand, CVT enables commu-nication and information sharing between vehicles and infrastructure, and therefore allows vehicles to achieve better control and/or coordination among themselves and with smart infrastructure. The first part of this dissertation focused on estimation of traffic on freeways and city streets. We use data available from on road sensors and also from probe One of the most important traffic performance measures is travel time. How-ever it is affected by various factors, and freeways and arterials have different travel time characteristics. In this dissertation we first propose a stochastic model-based approach to freeway travel-time prediction. The approach uses the Link-Node Cell Transmission Model (LN-CTM) to model traffic and provides a probability distribu-tion for travel time. The probability distribution is generated using a Monte Carlo simulation and an Online Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm. Results show that the approach is able to generate a reasonable multimodal distribution for travel-time. For arterials, this dissertation presents methods for estimating statistics of travel time by utilizing sparse vehicular probe data. A public data feed from transit buses in the City of San Francisco is used. We divide each link into shorter segments, and propose iterative methods for allocating travel time statistics to each segment. Inspired by K-mean and Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms, we iteratively update the mean and variance of travel time for each segment based on historical probe data until convergence. Based on segment travel time statistics, we then pro-pose a method to estimate the maximum likelihood trajectory (MLT) of a probe vehicle in between two data updates on arterial roads. The results are compared to high frequency ground truth data in multiple scenarios, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The second part of this dissertation emphasize on control approaches enabled by vehicular connectivity. Estimation and prediction of surrounding vehicle behaviors and upcoming traffic makes it possible to improve driving performance. We first propose a Speed Advisory System for arterial roads, which utilizes upcoming traffi

Next Generation Traffic Signal Performance Measures: Leveraging Connected Vehicle Data

High-resolution connected vehicle (CV) trajectory and event data has recently become commercially available. With over 500 billion vehicle position records generated each month in the United States, these data sets provide unique opportunities to build on and expand previous advances on traffic signal performance measures and safety evaluation. This report is a synthesis of research focused on the development of CV-based performance measures. A discussion is provided on data requirements, such as acquisition, storage, and access. Subsequently, techniques to reference vehicle trajectories to relevant roadways and movements are presented. This allows for performance analyses that can range from the movement- to the system-level. A comprehensive suite of methodologies to evaluate signal performance using vehicle trajectories is then provided. Finally, uses of CV hard-braking and hard-acceleration event data to assess safety and driver behavior are discussed. To evaluate scalability and test the proposed techniques, performance measures for over 4,700 traffic signals were estimated using more than 910 million vehicle trajectories and 14 billion GPS points in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. The contents of this report will help the industry transition towards a hybrid blend of detector- and CV-based signal performance measures with rigorously defined performance measures that have been peer-reviewed by both academics and industry leaders