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Uncertainties due to imperfect knowledge of systematic effects: general considerations and approximate formulae
Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric
uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of
uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the
so-called Bayesian approach), all sources of uncertainty can be included in a
logically consistent way. Practical formulae for the first moments of the
probability distribution are derived up to second-order approximations.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures. This paper and related work are also available
at http://www-zeus.roma1.infn.it/~agostini/prob+stat.htm
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