ESTABLISHING THE MOST INFLUENCING CAUSES OF COMPANIES’ FINANCIAL HEALTH AND PERFORMANCE – A GREY FUZZY APPROACH

The core of our paperwork consists in construction of a model for determining a hierarchy of qualitative and quantitative causes that are influencing service companies’ financial health. While the quantitative causes are objectively measurable, the qualitative causes are mainly subjectively measurable, quantified based on some experts’ opinion. In order to reduce the degree of subjectivity, we took advantage of methods offered by fuzzy systems, mainly in construction of the expertons. Expertons are in fact intervals built using the ϕ-fuzzy sub-set and the opinion of several experts over a certain problem. Furthermore, after constructing the expertons, we use the methods offered by grey systems theory and fuzzy sub-sets arithmetic to determine the degree of influence of each qualitative and quantitative cause on company’s performance. By classifying the causes and acting on the most important of them, the activity of the analyst can be really improved and the company’s performance will rise.service companies; fuzzy sets; grey systems theory; fuzzy sub-sets arithmetic; financial health

Empirical research on the evaluation model and method of sustainability of the open source ecosystem

The development of open source brings new thinking and production modes to software engineering and computer science, and establishes a software development method and ecological environment in which groups participate. Regardless of investors, developers, participants, and managers, they are most concerned about whether the Open Source Ecosystem can be sustainable to ensure that the ecosystem they choose will serve users for a long time. Moreover, the most important quality of the software ecosystem is sustainability, and it is also a research area in Symmetry. Therefore, it is significant to assess the sustainability of the Open Source Ecosystem. However, the current measurement of the sustainability of the Open Source Ecosystem lacks universal measurement indicators, as well as a method and a model. Therefore, this paper constructs an Evaluation Indicators System, which consists of three levels: The target level, the guideline level and the evaluation level, and takes openness, stability, activity, and extensibility as measurement indicators. On this basis, a weight calculation method, based on information contribution values and a Sustainability Assessment Model, is proposed. The models and methods are used to analyze the factors affecting the sustainability of Stack Overflow (SO) ecosystem. Through the analysis, we find that every indicator in the SO ecosystem is partaking in different development trends. The development trend of a single indicator does not represent the sustainable development trend of the whole ecosystem. It is necessary to consider all of the indicators to judge that ecosystem’s sustainability. The research on the sustainability of the Open Source Ecosystem is helpful for judging software health, measuring development efficiency and adjusting organizational structure. It also provides a reference for researchers who study the sustainability of software engineering

A place to cook: A scoping review

There has been a growing concern with health equity in public health systems worldwide. It is well known that the primary drivers shaping health are not medical treatments or genetics, but the conditions in which we live. Conditions, such as food and housing insecurity are pervasive problems in North America, but their relationship is not well understood. While housing and food security remain to be problems in high-income countries, there is minimal research linking the two conditions. The objectives of this research are to identify literature involving housing and food as a means to addressing health inequities and to inform future research. As well, we identify barriers and opportunities on how to address multiple social determinants of health (SDH) from an intersectoral approach. We used Arksey and O’Malley (2005) scoping review design and Dahlgren and Whitehead’s (2007) SDH as a conceptual framework. The most prominent drivers shaping health that are associated with housing and food insecurity are income and material needs, housing status, the built environment, social support networks, and the food environment, but they do not occur in isolation. Three research themes emerged from this review: (1) healthcare access and utilization consequences; (2) typifying the causes and solutions to housing and food insecurity; (2) gaps in research design. There are two emerging challenges to addressing multiple SDH challenges: (a) public health paradigms that frame causes and solutions to health inequalities, and (b) the effect on professional roles, structural-level decision making, and contribution to silo interventions. Opportunities to overcome challenges and advance the SDH agenda are guaranteed income, intersectionality and intersectoral collaboration, and approaching health inequalities with a social justice orientation. Silo interventions are ineffective in achieving health equity and addressing the SDH. Pathways to address food and housing insecurity require coordinated efforts and recognition of the structural determinants guided by political ideology. The task of addressing the SDH in a coordinated way is a daunting mission, given the recognizably challenging domination of the neoliberalism and individualism guiding policy and interventions. However, if reducing inequities is truly a health and population challenge worth striving for, political and structural change is essential

The Climate-Proof Planning towards the Ecological Transition: Isola Sacra—Fiumicino (Italy) between Flood Risk and Urban Development Prospectives

The increasing concentration of people and economic activities in urban areas intensifies the pressure on the urban environment and hastens environmental degradation processes. Therefore, addressing the impact of climate change on cities is an urgent matter that demands the immediate attention of policymakers, researchers, and the general public, not only for its environmental but also socioeconomic ramifications. Within this framework, the research focuses on the effects of climate change on coastal cities and aims to define guidelines for the innovation of urban planning tools from a climate-proof perspective. Specifically, the study analyses the effects of two phenomena related to climate change: heavy rainfall, river overflow, and sea-level rise, to establish a replicable approach for updating the documents that constitute the cognitive framework of the Local Urban Plan through the preparation of a multi-risk map (that considers different time horizons) and consequently the prescriptive apparatus of the Plan through the definition of a toolkit of site-specific design actions oriented towards urban adaptation. The proposed methodology is tested on the case study of Isola Sacra, Fiumicino (Italy), and is intended to apply to other territorial contexts. The aim of this study, in accordance with the principles of the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) framework, is to furnish theoretical-methodological and operational guidelines to translate risk knowledge, despite its limitations due to variables and uncertainties in measurements, into effective urban adaptation measures

Diffusion of Meta-Analysis, Systematic Review, and Related Research Synthesis Methods: Patterns, Contexts, and Impact

Like collaboration and interdisciplinary scholarship, research synthesis methods are used to integrate science knowledge. Unlike collaboration and interdisciplinary scholarship, research synthesis is a scientific method researchers apply to systematically and explicitly integrate knowledge from primary research studies to estimate the best answer to a specific question based on accumulated research findings. This study investigates the diffusion and impact of research synthesis methods at the macro- and meso-levels. At the macro-level, diffusion from 1972-2011 is described using bibliometric methods. Relatively modest engagement with the methods in the 1970s and 1980s was followed by increased engagement across a greater diversity of fields in the 1990s. Engagement with the methods continued to increase and spread across fields through the first decade of the 2000s. Engagement with research synthesis methods was strongly correlated with engagement with evidence-based practice (ρ=0.893, p < 0.001) and the number of years a field engaged with the methods (ρ = 0.706, p < 0.001), moderately correlated with engagement with past research (ρ = 0.403, p < 0.001); and modestly correlated with Biglan class (ρ = 0.279, p = 0.011). Five fields, Evolutionary Biology, Conservation Biology, Social Work, Women’s Studies, and Information and Library Science were selected for investigation at the meso-level. Content analysis, topic modeling, and qualitative summaries of literature at the intersections of these fields and research synthesis contextualize the diffusion process and reveal differences and similarities across field contexts. Bibliometric evaluation indicates that adoption of research synthesis contributes to changes in collaboration patterns: a greater number of authors contribute to research syntheses than research reviews in fields where collaboration on research reviews is low. This study provides some evidence that use of the methods has refined rather than replaced roles of traditional research reviews in Social Work; and illustrates interactions between innovations and use contexts. Innovations and their contexts are modified through adaptations influenced by historical contexts, values, and goals that intersect with the innovation use context.Doctor of Philosoph

Exploration of the Misuse, Abuse, and Diversion of Gabapentin

Gabapentin is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as an adjunctive anti-convulsant and an analgesic for post-herpetic neuralgia. Though gabapentin was initially presumed to have limited or no abuse potential, which may have contributed to its widespread off-label prescribing, there have been increasing anecdotal and published reports of its misuse by substance abusers in the community and penal system. However, to date, there has been limited systematic evaluation of the scope and risk of gabapentin misuse and its associated effects. This dissertation assesses the etiology and prevalence of gabapentin misuse, abuse, and diversion in a multi-faceted approach, namely by the individual, ecological, and pharmacoepidemiological factors associated with this phenomenon. Due to the importance of conducting theory-driven epidemiological research, this dissertation uses an adaptation of the Concurrent Triangulation Mixed Method Multilevel Theoretical Model to guide the study. Through qualitative analysis of focus group data in an existing cohort of opioid users, a systematic review of peer-reviewed published literature, and a pharmacovigilance assessment of adverse events reported to the FDA, this dissertation describes the present state of gabapentin misuse. Findings are important for providers and may help inform policy to establish for whom prescription of gabapentin is most appropriate

Long-term ecological research program: shortgrass steppe

Proposal submitted to National Science Foundation Ecosystems Studies Program; Principal investigators: W. K. Lauenroth, I. C. Burke, J. Van Schilfgaarde, J. R. Forwood.Includes bibliographical references (pages 132-140).The SGS-LTER research site was established in 1980 by researchers at Colorado State University as part of a network of long-term research sites within the US LTER Network, supported by the National Science Foundation. Scientists within the Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, and Biology Department at CSU, California State Fullerton, USDA Agricultural Research Service, University of Northern Colorado, and the University of Wyoming, among others, have contributed to our understanding of the structure and functions of the shortgrass steppe and other diverse ecosystems across the network while maintaining a common mission and sharing expertise, data and infrastructure.We propose to continue the long-term ecological research project in the shortgrass steppe, at the Central Plains Experimental Range in north central Colorado. The objective is to improve our understanding of the long-term processes responsible for the origin and sustainability of shortgrass steppe ecosystems. Our concept for long-term study of the shortgrass steppe is that the major controls over ecosystem structure and function are climate, geomorphology, and landuse management. Each of these controls has important spatial and temporal heterogeneity across a range of scales, and exerts its influence at a particular combination of levels. We hypothesize that the most important controls at the CPER are soil texture and landuse. We propose to continue current work and initiate new studies to further examine the influence of soil texture and landuse over shortgrass steppe ecosystem structure and function using field experimental research, simulation, and regional analysis

Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk Management Approaches in Construction Projects: A Systematic Literature Review and Comparative Analysis

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in construction projects and can drastically change the expected outcome, negatively impacting the project’s success. However, risk management (RM) is still conducted in a manual, largely ineffective, and experience-based fashion, hindering automation and knowledge transfer in projects. The construction industry is benefitting from the recent Industry 4.0 revolution and the advancements in data science branches, such as artificial intelligence (AI), for the digitalization and optimization of processes. Data-driven methods, e.g., AI and machine learning algorithms, Bayesian inference, and fuzzy logic, are being widely explored as possible solutions to RM domain shortcomings. These methods use deterministic or probabilistic risk reasoning approaches, the first of which proposes a fixed predicted value, and the latter embraces the notion of uncertainty, causal dependencies, and inferences between variables affecting projects’ risk in the predicted value. This research used a systematic literature review method with the objective of investigating and comparatively analyzing the main deterministic and probabilistic methods applied to construction RM in respect of scope, primary applications, advantages, disadvantages, limitations, and proven accuracy. The findings established recommendations for optimum AI-based frameworks for different management levels—enterprise, project, and operational—for large or small data sets

Systems thinking - language of complexity for scientists and managers

Land managers are regularly faced with the prospect of having to anticipate the consequences of their actions, and avoid unintended consequences, without comprehensive information about the system surrounding their management activities, for a number of reasons. First, natural systems are complex and while information may be available to assist managers in decision-making, it is often uncertain. Second, relevant information is often fragmented and scattered throughout scientific publications, reports, databases and in the heads of experienced people, making it difficult for managers to utilise. Third, people can have divergent views about management because pieces of information often relate to different management objectives (e.g. conservation vs. production) and different people hold different opinions about how management systems operate. This uncertain, fragmented and conflicting picture of natural resource management can result in managers continually dealing with symptoms rather than the underlying causes of management problems. Thus, there is a need to integrate information surrounding land management issues in a systematic way. This paper provides an insight into how systems thinking can be used as a mechanism for developing an understanding of the issues under consideration. It briefly explores the requirements for dealing with complex systems and demonstrates the application of three examples of Systems Thinking tools to help achieve some of the desired outcomes toward sustainability. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for a paradigm shift (a new way of thinking about the world and relationships). For this, Systems Thinking not only offers a language for understanding complexity and dynamic change, but also provides sophisticated and unsophisticated modelling technology and associated collaborative learning environments

Modeling the price of trends of teak wood using statistical and artificial neural network techniques

Modeling the trends and patterns in financial data is of great interest to the business community to support the decision-making process. In this study, the historical trends in the real prices of teak wood were described using spline models and the time periods for which the rate of change in real prices differed were identified. The possible reasons for this phenomenon such as impact of forest legislations and other factors have been explained.  In forecasting teak wood prices, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was compared with the traditional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was lesser in the case of ANN than the ARIMA model. Further, the turning points were more closely predicted by ANN. It appeared that forecast by ANN was heavily dependent on the previous value(s) immediate to the forecasting year. The study concluded that the next year price forecasts by univariate ARIMA and ANN models may be far from actual prices due to unanticipated factors