Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets

We investigate the asymmetric relations between trading volume and price changes, and trading volume and price volatility of energy futures contracts across maturities and under different market conditions. Using a relatively long sample of daily observations, we examine whether the impact of trading volume on returns and volatility of futures contracts can be time-varying and dependent on the market condition. We differentiate the market condition based on the slope of the forward curve into backwardation and contango. The results indicate that trading volume and returns are positively related when the market is in backwardation and negatively related when the market is in contango. In addition, the positive relation between changes in trading volume and volatility of futures contracts seem to be stronger when the market is in backwardation than when it is in contango. Finally, the results indicate that, to a certain extent, trade participation and trading activities of agents in energy futures markets can be explained by the slope of the forward curve which reflects the market condition and sentiment

A Regulatory Retreat: Energy Market Exemption from Private Anti-Manipulation Actions Under the Commodity Exchange Act

In order to facilitate greater reform in energy markets, Dodd-Frank granted the CFTC wide-ranging powers as part of the greater mandate given to the CFTC in relation to OTC-swaps and the daily derivatives trading activity in commodities futures and options markets. As a result, Dodd-Frank subjected electricity market transactions—which traditionally occur under the oversight of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in markets organized around independent system operators and regional transmission organizations—to the anti-manipulation prohibitions of the Commodity Exchange Act. Thus, differently from FERC’s regime, the post-Dodd-Frank statutory framework opened the way for enforcement of market discipline in electricity markets through a private right of action under Section 22 of the CEA. This development drew strong opposition from the industry, and also caused a conflict between courts and the CFTC in the interpretation of the relevant law. In October of 2016, the CFTC stepped back by issuing a final exemptive order to the participants of seven national energy markets, which constitute almost the entire U.S. wholesale electricity market. The withdrawal of the private right of action conflicts with the position previously advocated by the CFTC itself. It also raises questions about the CFTC’s use of its exemptive powers, as the removal of a statutory right through agency rulemaking may potentially be in conflict with the text and statutory purpose of the CEA as amended by Dodd-Frank. The exemption not only removes an important tool in enforcing market discipline, but also has the potential to undermine the reform efforts in the transition of U.S. energy markets to a smart grid. This Note will provide a history of the developments that have unfolded since the enactment of Dodd-Frank in relation to the availability of a private right of action under the CEA in energy markets. The Note also analyzes commonly raised arguments against the availability of a private right of action and presents the various counter-arguments

Experience with Carbon Taxes and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Systems

Carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETSs) to limit emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are increasingly common. At the end of 2015, 17 GHG ETSs were operational in 55 jurisdictions, and 18 jurisdictions collected at least one carbon tax. This paper assesses the performance of carbon taxes and ETSs with respect to environmental effectiveness (reduction of emissions regulated by the instrument), cost-effectiveness (marginal abatement cost), economic efficiency, public finance, and administrative issues. Data on emissions subject to carbon taxes are rarely reported. We estimate the taxed emissions for 17 taxes in 12 jurisdictions from 1991 through the end of 2015. All 17 taxes have reduced emissions relative to business-as-usual. Six of the jurisdictions actually reduced emissions, although in at least three of those jurisdictions the reductions appear to be due to other policies. The small sizes of reduction in almost all 17 cases are partially due to the low tax rates; the modest and uncertain changes in tax rates over time; and the limited response of taxed sources, such as fossil fuels, to price changes. Actual emissions declined for at least six of 10 ETSs. Other policies and developments, such as the 2009 recession, contributed to the reductions, but estimates of the share of the reduction attributable to the instrument are rare. All of the ETSs have accumulated banks of surplus allowances and most have implemented measures to reduce these banks. On average, the marginal cost of compliance is substantially lower for ETSs than carbon taxes. ETS experience has been shared bilaterally and via dedicated institutions. As a result, most ETSs have increased the share of allowances auctioned; adopted declining emissions caps; specified future caps and floor prices several years into the future; shifted to benchmarking for free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) sources; reduced accessibility to foreign offset credits; and established market stability reserves. By contrast, there is little evidence of shared learning and virtually no change to the design of carbon taxes. We found no jurisdiction that routinely tracks the taxed emissions. Very few jurisdictions regularly assess the effectiveness of the tax in achieving emission reductions. Additionally, adjustments to the tax rate often are unpredictable after an introductory period of three to five years. Both instruments reduce emissions, but ETSs have performed better than carbon taxes on the principal criteria of environmental effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Many jurisdictions have implemented both a carbon tax and a GHG ETS, and every jurisdiction that has adopted either instrument has also implemented other policies. More research is needed to improve the design of both instruments and their interaction with non-market-based carbon policies because the use of multiple instruments produces complex interactive and distributional effects. While economically inefficient, market-based policies should be supplemented by non-market-based policies to ensure sustained political support

Are the S&P 500 Index and Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Ethanol Futures Related for Intra-Day Data?

The energy sector is one of the most important in the world, so that time series fluctuations in leading energy sources have been analysed widely. As the leading energy commodities are traded on international stock exchanges, the analysis of the fluctuations in stock and financial derivatives prices and returns have also been investigated extensively in recent years. Much of the empirical analysis has concentrated on using daily, weekly or monthly data, with little research based on intra-day data. The paper analyses the relationships among the S&P 500 Index and futures prices, returns and volatility of three leading energy commodities, namely crude oil, natural gas and ethanol, using intra- day data. The detailed analysis of intra-day temporal aggregation in examining returns relationships and volatility spillovers across the equity and energy futures markets, and the effects of overnight returns, volume, realized volatility, asymmetry, and spillovers across the four financial markets, leads to interesting and useful results for decision making and hedging strategies. The empirical results relating to alternative models of mean and variance feedback and asymmetry for intra-daily returns, asymmetry and volatility spillovers, and dynamic conditional correlations and covariances, show that the relationships between the stock market and alternative energy financial derivatives, specifically futures prices and returns, can and do vary according to the trading range, whether daily or overnight effects are considered, and the temporal aggregation and time frequencies that are used