30,448 research outputs found
t-Exponential Memory Networks for Question-Answering Machines
Recent advances in deep learning have brought to the fore models that can
make multiple computational steps in the service of completing a task; these
are capable of describ- ing long-term dependencies in sequential data. Novel
recurrent attention models over possibly large external memory modules
constitute the core mechanisms that enable these capabilities. Our work
addresses learning subtler and more complex underlying temporal dynamics in
language modeling tasks that deal with sparse sequential data. To this end, we
improve upon these recent advances, by adopting concepts from the field of
Bayesian statistics, namely variational inference. Our proposed approach
consists in treating the network parameters as latent variables with a prior
distribution imposed over them. Our statistical assumptions go beyond the
standard practice of postulating Gaussian priors. Indeed, to allow for handling
outliers, which are prevalent in long observed sequences of multivariate data,
multivariate t-exponential distributions are imposed. On this basis, we proceed
to infer corresponding posteriors; these can be used for inference and
prediction at test time, in a way that accounts for the uncertainty in the
available sparse training data. Specifically, to allow for our approach to best
exploit the merits of the t-exponential family, our method considers a new
t-divergence measure, which generalizes the concept of the Kullback-Leibler
divergence. We perform an extensive experimental evaluation of our approach,
using challenging language modeling benchmarks, and illustrate its superiority
over existing state-of-the-art techniques
Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume
diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is
measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its
consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity)
historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data)
are used. Moreover qualitative data must be converted in numerical values to be
used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered
risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many
times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data,
gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian
Network is a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular
to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In
this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a Bayesian networks
in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and
marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have
only two states
The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?
A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations in the study of cognition. The present article takes central claims from these critiques and evaluates them in light of specific models. Closer consideration of actual examples of Bayesian treatments of different cognitive phenomena allows one to defuse these critiques showing that they cannot be sustained across the diversity of applications of the Bayesian framework for cognitive modeling. More generally, there is nothing in the Bayesian framework that would inherently give rise to the deficits that these critiques perceive, suggesting they have been framed at the wrong level of generality. At the same time, the examples are used to demonstrate the different ways in which consideration of rationality uniquely benefits both theory and practice in the study of cognition
Mathematical and Statistical Techniques for Systems Medicine: The Wnt Signaling Pathway as a Case Study
The last decade has seen an explosion in models that describe phenomena in
systems medicine. Such models are especially useful for studying signaling
pathways, such as the Wnt pathway. In this chapter we use the Wnt pathway to
showcase current mathematical and statistical techniques that enable modelers
to gain insight into (models of) gene regulation, and generate testable
predictions. We introduce a range of modeling frameworks, but focus on ordinary
differential equation (ODE) models since they remain the most widely used
approach in systems biology and medicine and continue to offer great potential.
We present methods for the analysis of a single model, comprising applications
of standard dynamical systems approaches such as nondimensionalization, steady
state, asymptotic and sensitivity analysis, and more recent statistical and
algebraic approaches to compare models with data. We present parameter
estimation and model comparison techniques, focusing on Bayesian analysis and
coplanarity via algebraic geometry. Our intention is that this (non exhaustive)
review may serve as a useful starting point for the analysis of models in
systems medicine.Comment: Submitted to 'Systems Medicine' as a book chapte
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