11,673 research outputs found
Modeling operational risk data reported above a time-varying threshold
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above a threshold. Fitting
data reported above a constant threshold is a well known and studied problem.
However, in practice, the losses are scaled for business and other factors
before the fitting and thus the threshold is varying across the scaled data
sample. A reporting level may also change when a bank changes its reporting
policy. We present both the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte
Carlo approaches to fitting the frequency and severity loss distributions using
data in the case of a time varying threshold. Estimation of the annual loss
distribution accounting for parameter uncertainty is also presented
Improving Point and Interval Estimates of Monotone Functions by Rearrangement
Suppose that a target function is monotonic, namely, weakly increasing, and
an available original estimate of this target function is not weakly
increasing. Rearrangements, univariate and multivariate, transform the original
estimate to a monotonic estimate that always lies closer in common metrics to
the target function. Furthermore, suppose an original simultaneous confidence
interval, which covers the target function with probability at least
, is defined by an upper and lower end-point functions that are not
weakly increasing. Then the rearranged confidence interval, defined by the
rearranged upper and lower end-point functions, is shorter in length in common
norms than the original interval and also covers the target function with
probability at least . We demonstrate the utility of the improved
point and interval estimates with an age-height growth chart example.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figures, 3 table
Global sensitivity analysis for stochastic simulators based on generalized lambda surrogate models
Global sensitivity analysis aims at quantifying the impact of input
variability onto the variation of the response of a computational model. It has
been widely applied to deterministic simulators, for which a set of input
parameters has a unique corresponding output value. Stochastic simulators,
however, have intrinsic randomness due to their use of (pseudo)random numbers,
so they give different results when run twice with the same input parameters
but non-common random numbers. Due to this random nature, conventional Sobol'
indices, used in global sensitivity analysis, can be extended to stochastic
simulators in different ways. In this paper, we discuss three possible
extensions and focus on those that depend only on the statistical dependence
between input and output. This choice ignores the detailed data generating
process involving the internal randomness, and can thus be applied to a wider
class of problems. We propose to use the generalized lambda model to emulate
the response distribution of stochastic simulators. Such a surrogate can be
constructed without the need for replications. The proposed method is applied
to three examples including two case studies in finance and epidemiology. The
results confirm the convergence of the approach for estimating the sensitivity
indices even with the presence of strong heteroskedasticity and small
signal-to-noise ratio
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Quantile autoregressive distributed lag model with an application to house price returns
This paper studies quantile regression in an autoregressive dynamic framework with exogenous stationary covariates. Hence, we develop a quantile autoregressive distributed lag model (QADL). We show that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Inference based on Wald and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for general linear restrictions is proposed. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate the properties of the estimators. We demonstrate the potential of the QADL model with an application to house price returns in the United Kingdom. The results show that house price returns present a heterogeneous autoregressive behavior across the quantiles. The real GDP growth and interest rates also have an asymmetric impact on house prices variations
On kernel smoothing for extremal quantile regression
Nonparametric regression quantiles obtained by inverting a kernel estimator
of the conditional distribution of the response are long established in
statistics. Attention has been, however, restricted to ordinary quantiles
staying away from the tails of the conditional distribution. The purpose of
this paper is to extend their asymptotic theory far enough into the tails. We
focus on extremal quantile regression estimators of a response variable given a
vector of covariates in the general setting, whether the conditional
extreme-value index is positive, negative, or zero. Specifically, we elucidate
their limit distributions when they are located in the range of the data or
near and even beyond the sample boundary, under technical conditions that link
the speed of convergence of their (intermediate or extreme) order with the
oscillations of the quantile function and a von-Mises property of the
conditional distribution. A simulation experiment and an illustration on real
data were presented. The real data are the American electric data where the
estimation of conditional extremes is found to be of genuine interest.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ466 the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
Evaluating Value-at-Risk models via Quantile Regression
This paper is concerned with evaluating value at risk estimates. It is well known that using only binary variables, such as whether or not there was an exception, sacrifices too much information. However, most of the specification tests (also called backtests) available in the literature, such as Christoffersen (1998) and Engle and Maganelli (2004) are based on such variables. In this paper we propose a new backtest that does not rely solely on binary variables.
It is shown that the new backtest provides a sufficient condition to assess the finite sample performance of a quantile model whereas the existing ones do not. The proposed methodology allows us to identify periods of an increased risk exposure based on a quantile regression model (Koenker & Xiao, 2002). Our theoretical findings are corroborated through a Monte Carlo simulation and an empirical exercise with daily S&P500 time series
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