Characterising User Transfer Amid Industrial Resource Variation: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

In a multitude of industrial fields, a key objective entails optimising resource management whilst satisfying user requirements. Resource management by industrial practitioners can result in a passive transfer of user loads across resource providers, a phenomenon whose accurate characterisation is both challenging and crucial. This research reveals the existence of user clusters, which capture macro-level user transfer patterns amid resource variation. We then propose CLUSTER, an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric model capable of automating cluster identification, and thereby predicting user transfer in response to resource variation. Furthermore, CLUSTER facilitates uncertainty quantification for further reliable decision-making. Our method enables privacy protection by functioning independently of personally identifiable information. Experiments with simulated and real-world data from the communications industry reveal a pronounced alignment between prediction results and empirical observations across a spectrum of resource management scenarios. This research establishes a solid groundwork for advancing resource management strategy development

AI Security for Geoscience and Remote Sensing: Challenges and Future Trends

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have significantly intensified research in the geoscience and remote sensing (RS) field. AI algorithms, especially deep learning-based ones, have been developed and applied widely to RS data analysis. The successful application of AI covers almost all aspects of Earth observation (EO) missions, from low-level vision tasks like super-resolution, denoising and inpainting, to high-level vision tasks like scene classification, object detection and semantic segmentation. While AI techniques enable researchers to observe and understand the Earth more accurately, the vulnerability and uncertainty of AI models deserve further attention, considering that many geoscience and RS tasks are highly safety-critical. This paper reviews the current development of AI security in the geoscience and RS field, covering the following five important aspects: adversarial attack, backdoor attack, federated learning, uncertainty and explainability. Moreover, the potential opportunities and trends are discussed to provide insights for future research. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to provide a systematic review of AI security-related research in the geoscience and RS community. Available code and datasets are also listed in the paper to move this vibrant field of research forward

A Survey on Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning Classification Systems from a Bayesian Perspective

Decision-making based on machine learning systems, especially when this decision-making can affect humanlives, is a subject of maximum interest in the Machine Learning community. It is, therefore, necessary to equipthese systems with a means of estimating uncertainty in the predictions they emit in order to help practition-ers make more informed decisions. In the present work, we introduce the topic of uncertainty estimation, andwe analyze the peculiarities of such estimation when applied to classification systems. We analyze differentmethods that have been designed to provide classification systems based on deep learning with mechanismsfor measuring the uncertainty of their predictions. We will take a look at how this uncertainty can be mod-eled and measured using different approaches, as well as practical considerations of different applications ofuncertainty. Moreover, we review some of the properties that should be borne in mind when developing suchmetrics. All in all, the present survey aims at providing a pragmatic overview of the estimation of uncertaintyin classification systems that can be very useful for both academic research and deep learning practitioners

ELFNet: Evidential Local-global Fusion for Stereo Matching

Although existing stereo matching models have achieved continuous improvement, they often face issues related to trustworthiness due to the absence of uncertainty estimation. Additionally, effectively leveraging multi-scale and multi-view knowledge of stereo pairs remains unexplored. In this paper, we introduce the \textbf{E}vidential \textbf{L}ocal-global \textbf{F}usion (ELF) framework for stereo matching, which endows both uncertainty estimation and confidence-aware fusion with trustworthy heads. Instead of predicting the disparity map alone, our model estimates an evidential-based disparity considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. With the normal inverse-Gamma distribution as a bridge, the proposed framework realizes intra evidential fusion of multi-level predictions and inter evidential fusion between cost-volume-based and transformer-based stereo matching. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed framework exploits multi-view information effectively and achieves state-of-the-art overall performance both on accuracy and cross-domain generalization. The codes are available at https://github.com/jimmy19991222/ELFNet.Comment: ICCV 202

Non-parametric modeling in non-intrusive load monitoring

Non-intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is an approach to the increasingly important task of residential energy analytics. Transparency of energy resources and consumption habits presents opportunities and benefits at all ends of the energy supply-chain, including the end-user. At present, there is no feasible infrastructure available to monitor individual appliances at a large scale. The goal of NILM is to provide appliance monitoring using only the available aggregate data, side-stepping the need for expensive and intrusive monitoring equipment. The present work showcases two self-contained, fully unsupervised NILM solutions: the first featuring non-parametric mixture models, and the second featuring non-parametric factorial Hidden Markov Models with explicit duration distributions. The present implementation makes use of traditional and novel constraints during inference, showing marked improvement in disaggregation accuracy with very little effect on computational cost, relative to the motivating work. To constitute a complete unsupervised solution, labels are applied to the inferred components using a Res-Net-based deep learning architecture. Although this preliminary approach to labelling proves less than satisfactory, it is well-founded and several opportunities for improvement are discussed. Both methods, along with the labelling network, make use of block-filtered data: a steady-state representation that removes transient behaviour and signal noise. A novel filter to achieve this steady-state representation that is both fast and reliable is developed and discussed at length. Finally, an approach to monitor the aggregate for novel events during deployment is developed under the framework of Bayesian surprise. The same non-parametric modelling can be leveraged to examine how the predictive and transitional distributions change given new windows of observations. This framework is also shown to have potential elsewhere, such as in regularizing models against over-fitting, which is an important problem in existing supervised NILM

Understanding the Relationship between Online Discussions and Bitcoin Return and Volume: Topic Modeling and Sentiment Analysis

This thesis examines Bitcoin related discussions on Bitcointalk.com over the 2013-2022 period. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling algorithm, we discover eight distinct topics: Mining, Regulation, Investment/trading, Public perception, Bitcoin’s nature, Wallet, Payment, and Other. Importantly, we find differences in relations between different topics’ sentiment, disagreement (proxy for uncertainty) and hype (proxy for attention) on one hand and Bitcoin return and trading volume on the other hand. Specifically, among all topics, only the sentiment and disagreement of Investment/trading topic have significant contemporaneous relation with Bitcoin return. In addition, sentiment and disagreement of several topics, such as Mining and Wallet, show significant relationships with Bitcoin return only on the tails of the return distribution (bullish and bearish markets). In contrast, sentiment, disagreement, and hype of each topic show significant relation with Bitcoin volume across the entire distribution. In addition, whereas hype has a positive relation with trading volume in a low-volume market, this relation becomes negative in a high-volume market