Investment and Instability

Although recent research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and political instability, the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability to investment. It finds that there is a robust causal relation from instability to investment, and that it is positive. In other words, an increase in political instability Granger causes an increase in investment. We identify three different theories that can explain this result.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39721/3/wp337.pd

Proceedings of the European Workshop on the Evaluation of Farm Investment Support, Investment Support for Improvement of Processing and Marketing of Agricultural Products

Contents: i - Angela Bergschmidt, Walter Dirksmeyer and Bernhard Forstner - Proceedings of the European Evaluation Workshop – Foreword -- PAPERS PRESENTED IN THE PLENARY SESSIONS -- 3 - Stefan Meyer - Methods for the Evaluation of Investment Support -- 15 - Andrea Pufahl - Programme Evaluation of Rural Development Plans – Purpose, Approaches and Exemplary Results -- 27 - Carel Gosselink - Agri Finance: Lost without Support? -- 33 - Anne Margarian - How to Evaluate a Measure without Goals – Considerations on the Basis of the Paradigmatic Example of Farm Investment Support in Germany -- 45 - Rudy Ooijen - Ex Ante Evaluations of Rural Development Programmes – Not just an Appraisal -- PAPERS PRESENTED IN THE SESSION ON FARM INVESTMENT SUPPORT -- 61 - Angela Bergschmidt and Walter Dirksmeyer - A Comparison of Farm Investment Support in Selected EU Member States -- 69 - Monika Beck and Thomas Dogot - The Use of Impact Indicators for the Evaluation of Farm Investment Support – A Case Study Based on the Rural Development Programme for Wallonia (2000 – 2006) -- 79 - Barbara Costantini and Maria Cristina Sibilla - Implementation of Farm Investment Support in Italy – Mid-Term Analysis -- 93 - Pawel Chmielinski - Regional Absorption Capacity of Farm Investment Support in Poland -- 105 - Luis A. Collado Cueto - Effectiveness and Impacts of Farm Investment Support in Spain – The Experience of the Updated Mid-Term Evaluation (2000 – 2006) -- 121 - Dimitros Lianos and Triantafyllia Giotopoulou - The Experience of the Evaluation of Farm Investment Support in Greece -- 133 - Bernhard Forstner - Evaluation of Farm Investment Support in Germany – Lessons Learned from the Application of Different Approaches -- 147 - Stephan Pfefferli - Impact Analysis of Investment Support for Agricultural Buildings in Switzerland -- 159 - Justyna Ziólkowska, Joanna Nargiello and Cezary Klimkowski - The Analysis of Changes in Farm Investment Support Policy in Poland after Joining the European Union -- PAPERS PRESENTED IN THE SESSION ON INVESTMENT SUPPORT FOR IMPROVEMENT OF PROCESSING AND MARKETING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS -- 177 - Inge Uetrecht, Heinz Wendt, Volker Krah and Annette Trefflich - The Implementation of Investment Support for Improving Processing and Marketing of Agricultural Products in the EU Member States – An Overview -- 187 -Andreas Pölking - Synthesis of the RDP Mid-Term Evaluation in Germany (16 Länder) and EC 15 in 2005 – Methodologies, Possibilities, Pitfalls and some Selected Results -- 195 - Julia Neuwirth and Karlheinz Pistrich - Improving Processing and Marketing of Agricultural Products – Organisation, Problems and Results of Evaluation in Austria -- 201 - Alois Grabner - Improving of Processing and Marketing of Agricultural Products – Assessment of Projects -- 205 - Pedro Serrano - Support to Processing and Marketing of Agricultural Products in Portugal -- 215 - Mark Temple - Two Approaches to Evaluation – The Case of the Processing and Marketing Grant in England -- 227 - Jochen Nölle and Josef Efken - Does Complete Field Research Build a Good Basis to Evaluating the Measure? -- CLOSURE OF THE EUROPEAN EVALUATION WORKSHOP -- 241 - Bernhard Forstner and Heinz Wendt - Summary and Final Discussion --

Effective versus Statutory Taxation: Measuring Effective Tax Administration in Transition Economies

Wide differences between effective or realised average tax rates and tax yields that would result if statutory tax rates were strictly applied indicate tax compliance and collection problems. Due to the greater politicisation of tax systems in transition economies (TEs), we would expect the shortfalls in effective tax yields for TEs to be larger than a benchmark for the mature market economies where tax systems are well established, the administrative capacity is stronger and tax arrears are tolerated less frequently. The methodology involves calculating an effective/statutory (E/S) tax ratio. Initial results indicate that the leading TEs have E/S ratios similar to the EU average. We find a positive correlation between progress in transition and effective tax administration, as measured by our E/S ratio. For slow reformers, the effectiveness of tax collection appears to vary with the extent of state control. Those TEs that have maintained the apparatus of the state have done well in tax collection compared to those countries where there is evidence of state decay. This raises a number of broad policy issues relating to the speed of transition, the interaction of politics and economic reforms, the capacity of the state to govern and the need for market institutions to develop.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39731/3/wp347.pd

Addressing private sector currency mismatches in emerging Europe

This paper provides a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature on the dollarisation of corporate and household liabilities; presents evidence on the causes of FX lending specifically in transition economies; and proposes a set of criteria to help decide on the right policy response based on country characteristics. These criteria particularly affect the extent to which regulation should be part of the policy response. Regulation to contain FX mismatches is useful in relatively advanced countries in which small market size and/or proximity to the euro make it difficult to fully develop local currency capital markets. In contrast, regulatory responses could be counterproductive in less advanced countries with high macroeconomic volatility. In these countries, the route to de-dollarisation first and foremost requires the strengthening of macroeconomic institutions.

Optimal Goodwill Model with Consumer Recommendations and Market Segmentation

We propose a new dynamic model of product goodwill where a product is sold in many market segments, and where the segments are indicated by the usage experience of consumers. The dynamics of product goodwill is described by a partial di erential equation of the Lotka{Sharpe{ McKendrick type. The main novelty of this model is that the product goodwill in a segment of new consumers depends not only on advertising e ort, but also on consumer recommendations, for which we introduce a mathematical representation. We consider an optimal goodwill model where in each market segment the control variable is the company's advertising e orts in order to maximize its pro ts. Using the maximum principle, we numerically nd the optimal advertising strategies and corresponding optimal goodwill paths. The sensitivity of these solutions is analysed. We identify two types of optimal advertising campaign: `strengthening' and `supportive'. They may assume di erent shapes and levels depending on the market segment. These experiments highlight the need for both researchers and managers to consider a segmented advertising polic

Equity research Jerónimo Martins SGPS S.A. : introducing an alternative approach to the capital structure puzzle

Mestrado Bolonha em FinançasThe present document is the report on an Equity Research of Jerónimo Martins S.G.P.S., SA (JMT). JMT is international Group based in Portugal with over 230 years of know-how in the food business. This report issues a buy recommendation for JMT, with a 2023YE price target of €24.9/share, applying a DCF FCFF Sum-of-the-Parts approach to each segment. The valuation comprises an upside potential of 22% from the January 13th, 2023, closing price of €20.4, with medium-low risk. To support this analysis, other valuation methods were used. Also, the valuation was subject to sensitivity analysis to address its risk. This research work presents an extended chapter aimed at integrating alternative methods to gauge the capital structure that investors require the firm to uphold for future growth opportunities. This is done by referring to foundational financial theory set by Modigliani-Miller for calculating the optimal capital structure, as well as the contrasting theory introduced by Stewart C. Myers. The section provides a new approach in calculating an implied capital structure by investors by using the Myers (1984) findings on present value growth options (PVGO), assuming those growth opportunities are a perpetuity of cash flows required by investors from the firms’ future project ventures.O presente documento é o relatório de Equity Research da Jerónimo Martins S.G.P.S., SA (JMT). A JMT é um Grupo internacional sediado em Portugal com mais de 230 anos de know-how no ramo alimentar. Este relatório emite uma recomendação de compra para a JMT, com um preço-alvo para 2023YE de €24,9/ação, aplicando uma abordagem DCF FCFF Sum-of-the-Parts a cada segmento. A avaliação compreende um potencial de valorização de 22% a partir de 13 de janeiro de 2023, preço de fechamento de € 20,4, com risco médio-baixo. Para apoiar esta análise, outros métodos de avaliação foram usados. Além disso, a avaliação foi sujeita a análise de sensibilidade para lidar com seu risco. Este trabalho de pesquisa apresenta um capítulo estendido que visa integrar métodos alternativos para avaliar a estrutura de capital que os investidores exigem que a empresa mantenha para futuras oportunidades de crescimento. Isso é feito referindo-se à teoria financeira fundamental definida por Modigliani-Miller para calcular a estrutura de capital ideal, bem como a teoria contrastante introduzida por Stewart C. Myers. A seção fornece uma nova abordagem no cálculo de uma estrutura de capital implícita por investidores usando as descobertas de Myers (1984) sobre opções de crescimento de valor presente (PVGO), assumindo que essas oportunidades de crescimento são uma perpetuidade dos fluxos de caixa exigidos pelos investidores do projeto futuro das empresas empreendimentos.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Who is Afraid of Political Instability?

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, the literature has assigned most of the blame to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-term relation between political instability and economic growth, but finds no evidence of such a relationship. Sensitivity analysis indicates that there is a contemporaneous negative relationship and that, in the long run and ignoring institutional factors, the Sub-Saharan Africa group plays the determining role in steering this relationship into causal and negative.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39710/3/wp326.pd

The transition to IFRS: disclosures by Portuguese listed companies

In the context of the CESR and of the Portuguese market regulator recommendations regarding the disclosure of the impacts of the transition to IFRS, this paper analyses the content of those disclosures by Portuguese listed companies. We found a high degree of variability among the disclosure either regarding the qualitative (narrative explanations of transition) or quantitative (reconciliations) disclosures. The results show that the objective of comparability, relevance and understandability stated in CESR’s recommendation were not achieved. Regarding accounting changes, the analysis shows that the reported impacts by companies confirmed expectations based on prior de jure studies on major impacts of changing from Portuguese GAAP to IFRS; these major impacts regard the recognition of intangibles, the accounting treatment of goodwill and financial instruments. Finally, Gray’s (1980) “conservatism” index was computed using the reconciliated profits to IFRS reported by companies. This analysis shows that Portuguese standards are more conservative than IFRS. This study is relevant to several parties: to the market regulators and policy makers in predicting the level of compliance with IFRS and calling attention for the importance of enforcement mechanisms; to the preparers, auditors and users in identifying the most problematic areas of implementation of IFRS.International Accounting, Disclosure, IAS/IFRS, Portugal