Discovering dynamics and parameters of nonlinear oscillatory and chaotic systems from partial observations

Despite rapid progress in live-imaging techniques, many complex biophysical and biochemical systems remain only partially observable, thus posing the challenge to identify valid theoretical models and estimate their parameters from an incomplete set of experimentally accessible time series. Here, we combine sensitivity methods and VoteFair popularity ranking to construct an automated hidden dynamics inference framework that can discover predictive nonlinear dynamical models for both observable and latent variables from noise-corrupted incomplete data in oscillatory and chaotic systems. After validating the framework for prototypical FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillations, we demonstrate its applicability to experimental data from squid neuron activity measurements and Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reactions, as well as to the Lorenz system in the chaotic regime.Comment: 37 pages, 18 figure

Wavelet LSTM for Fault Forecasting in Electrical Power Grids

An electric power distribution utility is responsible for providing energy to consumers in a continuous and stable way. Failures in the electrical power system reduce the reliability indexes of the grid, directly harming its performance. For this reason, there is a need for failure prediction to reestablish power in the shortest possible time. Considering an evaluation of the number of failures over time, this paper proposes performing failure prediction during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil (2020) to verify the feasibility of using time series forecasting models for fault prediction. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model will be evaluated to obtain a forecast result that an electric power utility can use to organize maintenance teams. The wavelet transform has shown itself to be promising in improving the predictive ability of LSTM, making the wavelet LSTM model suitable for the study at hand. The assessments show that the proposed approach has better results regarding the error in prediction and has robustness when statistical analysis is performed.N/

Information Theory in Molecular Evolution: From Models to Structures and Dynamics

This Special Issue collects novel contributions from scientists in the interdisciplinary field of biomolecular evolution. Works listed here use information theoretical concepts as a core but are tightly integrated with the study of molecular processes. Applications include the analysis of phylogenetic signals to elucidate biomolecular structure and function, the study and quantification of structural dynamics and allostery, as well as models of molecular interaction specificity inspired by evolutionary cues

Adaptation-Aware Architecture Modeling and Analysis of Energy Efficiency for Software Systems

This thesis presents an approach for the design time analysis of energy efficiency for static and self-adaptive software systems. The quality characteristics of a software system, such as performance and operating costs, strongly depend upon its architecture. Software architecture is a high-level view on software artifacts that reflects essential quality characteristics of a system under design. Design decisions made on an architectural level have a decisive impact on the quality of a system. Revising architectural design decisions late into development requires significant effort. Architectural analyses allow software architects to reason about the impact of design decisions on quality, based on an architectural description of the system. An essential quality goal is the reduction of cost while maintaining other quality goals. Power consumption accounts for a significant part of the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of data centers. In 2010, data centers contributed 1.3% of the world-wide power consumption. However, reasoning on the energy efficiency of software systems is excluded from the systematic analysis of software architectures at design time. Energy efficiency can only be evaluated once the system is deployed and operational. One approach to reduce power consumption or cost is the introduction of self-adaptivity to a software system. Self-adaptive software systems execute adaptations to provision costly resources dependent on user load. The execution of reconfigurations can increase energy efficiency and reduce cost. If performed improperly, however, the additional resources required to execute a reconfiguration may exceed their positive effect. Existing architecture-level energy analysis approaches offer limited accuracy or only consider a limited set of system features, e.g., the used communication style. Predictive approaches from the embedded systems and Cloud Computing domain operate on an abstraction that is not suited for architectural analysis. The execution of adaptations can consume additional resources. The additional consumption can reduce performance and energy efficiency. Design time quality analyses for self-adaptive software systems ignore this transient effect of adaptations. This thesis makes the following contributions to enable the systematic consideration of energy efficiency in the architectural design of self-adaptive software systems: First, it presents a modeling language that captures power consumption characteristics on an architectural abstraction level. Second, it introduces an energy efficiency analysis approach that uses instances of our power consumption modeling language in combination with existing performance analyses for architecture models. The developed analysis supports reasoning on energy efficiency for static and self-adaptive software systems. Third, to ease the specification of power consumption characteristics, we provide a method for extracting power models for server environments. The method encompasses an automated profiling of servers based on a set of restrictions defined by the user. A model training framework extracts a set of power models specified in our modeling language from the resulting profile. The method ranks the trained power models based on their predicted accuracy. Lastly, this thesis introduces a systematic modeling and analysis approach for considering transient effects in design time quality analyses. The approach explicitly models inter-dependencies between reconfigurations, performance and power consumption. We provide a formalization of the execution semantics of the model. Additionally, we discuss how our approach can be integrated with existing quality analyses of self-adaptive software systems. We validated the accuracy, applicability, and appropriateness of our approach in a variety of case studies. The first two case studies investigated the accuracy and appropriateness of our modeling and analysis approach. The first study evaluated the impact of design decisions on the energy efficiency of a media hosting application. The energy consumption predictions achieved an absolute error lower than 5.5% across different user loads. Our approach predicted the relative impact of the design decision on energy efficiency with an error of less than 18.94%. The second case study used two variants of the Spring-based community case study system PetClinic. The case study complements the accuracy and appropriateness evaluation of our modeling and analysis approach. We were able to predict the energy consumption of both variants with an absolute error of no more than 2.38%. In contrast to the first case study, we derived all models automatically, using our power model extraction framework, as well as an extraction framework for performance models. The third case study applied our model-based prediction to evaluate the effect of different self-adaptation algorithms on energy efficiency. It involved scientific workloads executed in a virtualized environment. Our approach predicted the energy consumption with an error below 7.1%, even though we used coarse grained measurement data of low accuracy to train the input models. The fourth case study evaluated the appropriateness and accuracy of the automated model extraction method using a set of Big Data and enterprise workloads. Our method produced power models with prediction errors below 5.9%. A secondary study evaluated the accuracy of extracted power models for different Virtual Machine (VM) migration scenarios. The results of the fifth case study showed that our approach for modeling transient effects improved the prediction accuracy for a horizontally scaling application. Leveraging the improved accuracy, we were able to identify design deficiencies of the application that otherwise would have remained unnoticed

Learning-based Predictive Control Approach for Real-time Management of Cyber-physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) are composed of heterogeneous, and networked hardware and software components tightly integrated with physical elements [72]. Large-scale CPSs are composed of complex components, subject to uncertainties [89], as though their design and development is a challenging task. Achieving reliability and real-time adaptation to changing environments are some of the challenges involved in large-scale CPSs development [51]. Addressing these challenges requires deep insights into control theory and machine learning. This research presents a learning-based control approach for CPSs management, considering their requirements, specifications, and constraints. Model-based control approaches, such as model predictive control (MPC), are proven to be efficient in the management of CPSs [26]. MPC is a control technique that uses a prediction model to estimate future dynamics of the system and generate an optimal control sequence over a prediction horizon. The main benefit of MPC in CPSs management comes from its ability to take the predictions of system’s environmental conditions and disturbances into account [26]. In this dissertation, centralized and distributed MPC strategies are designed for the management of CPSs. They are implemented for the thermal management of a CPS case study, smart building. The control goals are optimizing system efficiency (lower thermal power consumption in the building), and improving users’ convenience (maintaining desired indoor thermal conditions in the building). Model-based control strategies are advantageous in the management of CPSs due to their ability to provide system robustness and stability. The performance of a model-based controller strongly depends on the accuracy of the model as a representation of the system dynamics [26]. Accurate modeling of large-scale CPSs is difficult (due to the existence of unmodeled dynamics and uncertainties in the modeling process); therefore, modelbased control approach is not practical for these systems [6]. By incorporating machine learning with model-based control strategies, we can address CPS modeling challenges while preserving the advantages of model-based control methods. In this dissertation, a learning-based modeling strategy incorporated with a model-based control approach is proposed to manage energy usage and maintain thermal, visual, and olfactory performance in buildings. Neural networks (NNs) are used to learn the building’s performance criteria, occupant-related parameters, environmental conditions, and operation costs. Control inputs are generated through the model-based predictive controller and based on the learned parameters, to achieve the desired performance. In contrast to the existing building control systems presented in the literature, the proposed management system integrates current and future information of occupants (convenience, comfort, activities), building energy trends, and environment conditions (environmental temperature, humidity, and light) into the control design. This data is synthesized and evaluated in each instance of decision-making process for managing building subsystems. Thus, the controller can learn complex dynamics and adapt to the changing environment, to achieve optimal performance while satisfying problem constraints. Furthermore, while many prior studies in the filed are focused on optimizing a single aspect of buildings (such as thermal management), and little attention is given to the simultaneous management of all building objectives, our proposed management system is developed considering all buildings’ physical models, environmental conditions, comfort specifications, and occupants’ preferences, and can be applied to various building management applications. The proposed control strategy is implemented to manage indoor conditions and energy consumption in a building, simulated in EnergyPlus software. In addition, for comparison purposes, we designed and simulated a baseline controller for the building under the same conditions

Process Mining Handbook

This is an open access book. This book comprises all the single courses given as part of the First Summer School on Process Mining, PMSS 2022, which was held in Aachen, Germany, during July 4-8, 2022. This volume contains 17 chapters organized into the following topical sections: Introduction; process discovery; conformance checking; data preprocessing; process enhancement and monitoring; assorted process mining topics; industrial perspective and applications; and closing