Engineering failure analysis and design optimisation with HiP-HOPS

The scale and complexity of computer-based safety critical systems, like those used in the transport and manufacturing industries, pose significant challenges for failure analysis. Over the last decade, research has focused on automating this task. In one approach, predictive models of system failure are constructed from the topology of the system and local component failure models using a process of composition. An alternative approach employs model-checking of state automata to study the effects of failure and verify system safety properties. In this paper, we discuss these two approaches to failure analysis. We then focus on Hierarchically Performed Hazard Origin & Propagation Studies (HiP-HOPS) - one of the more advanced compositional approaches - and discuss its capabilities for automatic synthesis of fault trees, combinatorial Failure Modes and Effects Analyses, and reliability versus cost optimisation of systems via application of automatic model transformations. We summarise these contributions and demonstrate the application of HiP-HOPS on a simplified fuel oil system for a ship engine. In light of this example, we discuss strengths and limitations of the method in relation to other state-of-the-art techniques. In particular, because HiP-HOPS is deductive in nature, relating system failures back to their causes, it is less prone to combinatorial explosion and can more readily be iterated. For this reason, it enables exhaustive assessment of combinations of failures and design optimisation using computationally expensive meta-heuristics. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Compositional dependability analysis of dynamic systems with uncertainty

Over the past two decades, research has focused on simplifying dependability analysis by looking at how we can synthesise dependability information from system models automatically. This has led to the field of model-based safety assessment (MBSA), which has attracted a significant amount of interest from industry, academia, and government agencies. Different model-based safety analysis methods, such as Hierarchically Performed Hazard Origin & Propagation Studies (HiP-HOPS), are increasingly applied by industry for dependability analysis of safety-critical systems. Such systems may feature multiple modes of operation where the behaviour of the systems and the interactions between system components can change according to what modes of operation the systems are in.MBSA techniques usually combine different classical safety analysis approaches to allow the analysts to perform safety analyses automatically or semi-automatically. For example, HiP-HOPS is a state-of-the-art MBSA approach which enhances an architectural model of a system with logical failure annotations to allow safety studies such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). In this way it shows how the failure of a single component or combinations of failures of different components can lead to system failure. As systems are getting more complex and their behaviour becomes more dynamic, capturing this dynamic behaviour and the many possible interactions between the components is necessary to develop an accurate failure model.One of the ways of modelling this dynamic behaviour is with a state-transition diagram. Introducing a dynamic model compatible with the existing architectural information of systems can provide significant benefits in terms of accurate representation and expressiveness when analysing the dynamic behaviour of modern large-scale and complex safety-critical systems. Thus the first key contribution of this thesis is a methodology to enable MBSA techniques to model dynamic behaviour of systems. This thesis demonstrates the use of this methodology using the HiP-HOPS tool as an example, and thus extends HiP-HOPS with state-transition annotations. This extension allows HiP-HOPS to model more complex dynamic scenarios and perform compositional dynamic dependability analysis of complex systems by generating Pandora temporal fault trees (TFTs). As TFTs capture state, the techniques used for solving classical FTs are not suitable to solve them. They require a state space solution for quantification of probability. This thesis therefore proposes two methodologies based on Petri Nets and Bayesian Networks to provide state space solutions to Pandora TFTs.Uncertainty is another important (yet incomplete) area of MBSA: typical MBSA approaches are not capable of performing quantitative analysis under uncertainty. Therefore, in addition to the above contributions, this thesis proposes a fuzzy set theory based methodology to quantify Pandora temporal fault trees with uncertainty in failure data of components.The proposed methodologies are applied to a case study to demonstrate how they can be used in practice. Finally, the overall contributions of the thesis are evaluated by discussing the results produced and from these conclusions about the potential benefits of the new techniques are drawn

An overview of fault tree analysis and its application in model based dependability analysis

YesFault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a well-established and well-understood technique, widely used for dependability evaluation of a wide range of systems. Although many extensions of fault trees have been proposed, they suffer from a variety of shortcomings. In particular, even where software tool support exists, these analyses require a lot of manual effort. Over the past two decades, research has focused on simplifying dependability analysis by looking at how we can synthesise dependability information from system models automatically. This has led to the field of model-based dependability analysis (MBDA). Different tools and techniques have been developed as part of MBDA to automate the generation of dependability analysis artefacts such as fault trees. Firstly, this paper reviews the standard fault tree with its limitations. Secondly, different extensions of standard fault trees are reviewed. Thirdly, this paper reviews a number of prominent MBDA techniques where fault trees are used as a means for system dependability analysis and provides an insight into their working mechanism, applicability, strengths and challenges. Finally, the future outlook for MBDA is outlined, which includes the prospect of developing expert and intelligent systems for dependability analysis of complex open systems under the conditions of uncertainty

Recent developments in genetics and medically assisted reproduction: from research to clinical applications

Two leading European professional societies, the European Society of Human Genetics and the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology, have worked together since 2004 to evaluate the impact of fast research advances at the interface of assisted reproduction and genetics, including their application into clinical practice. In September 2016, the expert panel met for the third time. The topics discussed highlighted important issues covering the impacts of expanded carrier screening, direct-to-consumer genetic testing, voiding of the presumed anonymity of gamete donors by advanced genetic testing, advances in the research of genetic causes underlying male and female infertility, utilisation of massively parallel sequencing in preimplantation genetic testing and non-invasive prenatal screening, mitochondrial replacement in human oocytes, and additionally, issues related to cross-generational epigenetic inheritance following IVF and germline genome editing. The resulting paper represents a consensus of both professional societies involved

Firm failure processes and determinants of failure in EU countries and UK regions: a quantitative analysis of SMEs.

This thesis is motivated by the fact that small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are of vital importance to most European countries collectively, and to each country individually. For these reasons, understanding SME failure is an integral part of decision and policy making. Firm failure can be regarded as a multi-year process that develops over time. Yet there has been limited work in the area of quantitatively identifying and analysing SME failure processes. In particular, despite evidence from the qualitative firm failure process literature on the importance that non-financial, firm-specific characteristics have on firm failure processes, the quantitative firm failure process literature has largely ignored this aspect. Likewise, the determinants of firms' transition to failure within potential alternative firm failure processes and the importance of geographical location are often overlooked in the firm failure process literature, despite evidence in the wider firm failure literature for the contrary. For these reasons, the current evidence in the quantitative firm failure process literature is quite isolated from wider firm failure studies. This thesis aims to investigate alternative SME failure processes, the determinants of firms' transition towards failure and the importance of firms' geographical location by bringing evidence from other parts of the firm failure literature in the quantitative study of firm failure processes. The sample analysed consists of SMEs in eight EU countries, covering the period from 2004-2013. In addition to analysing the whole sample, the failure processes and failure determinants of UK failed SMEs are also investigated. The dataset of this study covers firm-specific characteristics - such as financial ratios and directors' characteristics - and information about the macroeconomic and business environment. In addition, the impact of geographical location is considered. The key results of the analysis identify the existence of four alternative firm failure processes (new firms with inexperienced boards, high growth firms, old firms, firms without board diversity) which apply across EU countries and UK regions. A number of other characteristics are also present in the alternative firm failure processes: directors characteristics are of primary importance for firm failure processes as well as firms' transition to failure. So are the age of the firm, the legal tradition of the country, the levels of business growth and the intensity of competition due to new business entrants in an area and the geographical location of firms. There are a number of contributions that this thesis makes to the quantitative firm failure process literature. First, given that the different failure processes were found to have differing determinants, the results show the importance of looking at individual firm failure processes rather than simply analysing all failed firms together. Second, this thesis is the first to quantitatively analyse the impact of directors' characteristics in the identification of the alternative firm failure processes in EU and UK firms. Third, it is the first study to investigate the determinants of firms' transition to failure within the alternative firm failure processes context where both financial distress and liquidations are considered in the definition of failure. Fourth, this thesis identifies the importance of geographical location and the existence of spatial interactions in some parts of firms' transition to failure. As such, this thesis consolidates and analyses evidence from qualitative firm failure process studies and from wider firm failure studies in the context of quantitative firm failure process. In doing so, it applies spatial panel data analysis for first time in a firm failure process study. A number of policy implications result from these findings. Given the differences in firm-specific characteristics, the differences in the determinants of transition to failure and the geographic sensitivities that the alternative firm failure processes have, policies and decisions designed to support SMEs to avoid failure should be more targeted according to the characteristics of the firm and the process towards failure with which it is mostly associated

Recent developments in genetics and medically assisted reproduction : from research to clinical applications

Two leading European professional societies, the European Society of Human Genetics and the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology, have worked together since 2004 to evaluate the impact of fast research advances at the interface of assisted reproduction and genetics, including their application into clinical practice. In September 2016, the expert panel met for the third time. The topics discussed highlighted important issues covering the impacts of expanded carrier screening, direct-to-consumer genetic testing, voiding of the presumed anonymity of gamete donors by advanced genetic testing, advances in the research of genetic causes underlying male and female infertility, utilisation of massively parallel sequencing in preimplantation genetic testing and non-invasive prenatal screening, mitochondrial replacement in human oocytes, and additionally, issues related to cross-generational epigenetic inheritance following IVF and germline genome editing. The resulting paper represents a consensus of both professional societies involved.Peer reviewe

The biosphere under potential Paris outcomes

Rapid economic and population growth over the last centuries have started to push the Earth out of its Holocene state into the Anthropocene. In this new era, ecosystems across the globe face mounting dual pressure from human land use change (LUC) and climate change (CC). With the Paris Agreement, the international community has committed to holding global warming below 2°C above preindustrial levels, yet current pledges by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions appear insufficient to achieve that goal. At the same time, the sustainable development goals strive to reduce inequalities between countries and provide sufficient food, feed, and clean energy to a growing world population likely to reach more than 9 billion by 2050. Here, we present a macro‐scale analysis of the projected impacts of both CC and LUC on the terrestrial biosphere over the 21st century using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to illustrate possible trajectories following the Paris Agreement. We find that CC may cause major impacts in landscapes covering between 16% and 65% of the global ice‐free land surface by the end of the century, depending on the success or failure of achieving the Paris goal. Accounting for LUC impacts in addition, this number increases to 38%–80%. Thus, CC will likely replace LUC as the major driver of ecosystem change unless global warming can be limited to well below 2°C. We also find a substantial risk that impacts of agricultural expansion may offset some of the benefits of ambitious climate protection for ecosystems

Specification and use of component failure patterns

Safety-critical systems are typically assessed for their adherence to specified safety properties. They are studied down to the component-level to identify root causes of any hazardous failures. Most recent work with model-based safety analysis has focused on improving system modelling techniques and the algorithms used for automatic analyses of failure models. However, few developments have been made to improve the scope of reusable analysis elements within these techniques. The failure behaviour of components in these techniques is typically specified in such a way that limits the applicability of such specifications across applications. The thesis argues that allowing more general expressions of failure behaviour, identifiable patterns of failure behaviour for use within safety analyses could be specified and reused across systems and applications where the conditions that allow such reuse are present.This thesis presents a novel Generalised Failure Language (GFL) for the specification and use of component failure patterns. Current model-based safety analysis methods are investigated to examine the scope and the limits of achievable reuse within their analyses. One method, HiP-HOPS, is extended to demonstrate the application of GFL and the use of component failure patterns in the context of automated safety analysis. A managed approach to performing reuse is developed alongside the GFL to create a method for more concise and efficient safety analysis. The method is then applied to a simplified fuel supply and a vehicle braking system, as well as on a set of legacy models that have previously been analysed using classical HiP-HOPS. The proposed GFL method is finally compared against the classical HiP-HOPS, and in the light of this study the benefits and limitations of this approach are discussed in the conclusions