Probabilistic Model-Based Safety Analysis

Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional approaches is that the analysis of the whole system gives more precise results. Only few model-based approaches have been applied to answer quantitative questions in safety analysis, often limited to analysis of specific failure propagation models, limited types of failure modes or without system dynamics and behavior, as direct quantitative analysis is uses large amounts of computing resources. New achievements in the domain of (probabilistic) model-checking now allow for overcoming this problem. This paper shows how functional models based on synchronous parallel semantics, which can be used for system design, implementation and qualitative safety analysis, can be directly re-used for (model-based) quantitative safety analysis. Accurate modeling of different types of probabilistic failure occurrence is shown as well as accurate interpretation of the results of the analysis. This allows for reliable and expressive assessment of the safety of a system in early design stages

Programming agent-based demographic models with cross-state and message-exchange dependencies: A study with speculative PDES and automatic load-sharing

Agent-based modeling and simulation is a versatile and promising methodology to capture complex interactions among entities and their surrounding environment. A great advantage is its ability to model phenomena at a macro scale by exploiting simpler descriptions at a micro level. It has been proven effective in many fields, and it is rapidly becoming a de-facto standard in the study of population dynamics. In this article we study programmability and performance aspects of the last-generation ROOT-Sim speculative PDES environment for multi/many-core shared-memory architectures. ROOT-Sim transparently offers a programming model where interactions can be based on both explicit message passing and in-place state accesses. We introduce programming guidelines for systematic exploitation of these facilities in agent-based simulations, and we study the effects on performance of an innovative load-sharing policy targeting these types of dependencies. An experimental assessment with synthetic and real-world applications is provided, to assess the validity of our proposal

KR3^3: An Architecture for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning in Robotics

This paper describes an architecture that combines the complementary strengths of declarative programming and probabilistic graphical models to enable robots to represent, reason with, and learn from, qualitative and quantitative descriptions of uncertainty and knowledge. An action language is used for the low-level (LL) and high-level (HL) system descriptions in the architecture, and the definition of recorded histories in the HL is expanded to allow prioritized defaults. For any given goal, tentative plans created in the HL using default knowledge and commonsense reasoning are implemented in the LL using probabilistic algorithms, with the corresponding observations used to update the HL history. Tight coupling between the two levels enables automatic selection of relevant variables and generation of suitable action policies in the LL for each HL action, and supports reasoning with violation of defaults, noisy observations and unreliable actions in large and complex domains. The architecture is evaluated in simulation and on physical robots transporting objects in indoor domains; the benefit on robots is a reduction in task execution time of 39% compared with a purely probabilistic, but still hierarchical, approach.Comment: The paper appears in the Proceedings of the 15th International Workshop on Non-Monotonic Reasoning (NMR 2014

Modelling and analyzing adaptive self-assembling strategies with Maude

Building adaptive systems with predictable emergent behavior is a challenging task and it is becoming a critical need. The research community has accepted the challenge by introducing approaches of various nature: from software architectures, to programming paradigms, to analysis techniques. We recently proposed a conceptual framework for adaptation centered around the role of control data. In this paper we show that it can be naturally realized in a reflective logical language like Maude by using the Reflective Russian Dolls model. Moreover, we exploit this model to specify and analyse a prominent example of adaptive system: robot swarms equipped with obstacle-avoidance self-assembly strategies. The analysis exploits the statistical model checker PVesta