Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research

The ever greater role given to public participation by laws and regulations, in particular in the field of environmental management calls for new operational methods and tools for managers and practitioners. This paper analyses the potentials and the critical limitations of current approaches in the fields of simulation modelling (SM), public participation (PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research. The potential synergies of combining SM, PP and DA into an integrated methodological framework are identified and a methodological proposal is presented, called NetSyMoD (Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support), which aims at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in policy - or decision-making processes (P/DMP). A generic P/DMP is formalised in NetSyMoD as a sequence of six main phases: (i) Actors analysis; (ii) Problem analysis; (iii) Creative System Modelling; (iv) DSS design; (v) Analysis of Options; and (vi) Action taking and monitoring. Several variants of the NetSyMoD approach have been adapted to different contexts such as integrated water resources management and coastal management, and, recently it has been applied in climate change research projects. Experience has shown that NetSyMoD may be a useful framework for skilled professionals, for guiding the P/DMP, and providing practical solutions to problems encountered in the different phases of the decision/policy making process, in particular when future scenarios or projections have to be considered, such as in the case of developing and selecting adaptation policies. The various applications of NetSyMoD share the same approach for problem analysis and communication within the group of selected actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through a Decision Support System (DSS) software.Modelling, Public Participation, Natural Resource Management, Policy, Decision-Making, Governance, DSS

Network Analysis, Creative System Modelling and Decision Support: The NetSyMoD Approach

This paper presents the NetSyMoD approach – where NetSyMod stands for Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support. It represents the outcome of several years of research at FEEM in the field of natural resources management, environmental evaluation and decision-making, within the Natural Resources Management Research Programme. NetSyMoD is a flexible and comprehensive methodological framework, which uses a suite of support tools, aimed at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in decision-making processes. The main phases envisaged for the process are: (i) the identification of relevant actors, (ii) the analysis of social networks, (iii) the creative system modelling and modelling of the reality being considered (i.e. the local socio-economic and environmental system), and (iv) the analysis of alternative options available for the management of the specific case (e.g. alternative projects, plans, strategies). The strategies for participation are necessarily context-dependent, and thus not all the NetSyMod phases may be needed in every application. Furthermore, the practical solutions for their implementation may significantly differ from one case to another, depending not only on the context, but also on the available resources (human and financial). The various applications of NetSyMoD have nonetheless in common the same approach for problem analysis and communication within a group of actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through the mDSS software.Social Network, Integrated Analysis, Participatory Modelling, Decision Support

Theory of Provocation

The present volume discusses the subject of provocation and its various applications in the field of political science. Provocation itself combines the artificial induction of events, attitudes and human behavior, and the unilateral prejudging of issues, resulting in the interlocutor being surprised, trapped, manipulated or extorted. A political provocation manifests itself in various forms: productive or parasitic; pointed, collective or networked influence; initiative or reactive and reflexive; causal, deceptive or discrediting; constructive or destructive. The author brings forth real-world examples to illuminate the various intricacies of this concept, its applications, aims, and much more

Science and Strategy: How Scientific and Technical Information Are Used in Disputes Over Landslide Regulations in Seattle, WA

This thesis investigates the ways in which scientific and technical information are used to challenge policies regarding development in landslide-prone areas in Seattle, Washington. It examines the values that underlie actor arguments within those challenges, using the theoretical lens of Science, Technology, and Society. Twelve case studies are selected from a set of 90 permitting appeals, court cases, and growth management hearings board appeals between the years of 1990 and 2015, and analyzed to identify the complex ways in which scientific information is used to further actor positions. A narrative analysis approach is used to analyze the case studies, archived news coverage, and interviews with geologists and planners in order to identify actor values and narratives. The results of this project suggest that, despite the science-centered arguments of developers and government, actor decisions are highly influenced by values. Neighbors who oppose development draw their arguments from aesthetic values; developers draw their arguments from values that center on property rights and right to accept risk; and all actors, including government, base arguments on potential economic gains or losses. What can be concluded is that despite hillside development policy being based upon science and technical knowledge, actor arguments and concerns are often based upon values, which cannot be articulated through science and technical information. Though well-resourced actors can influence policy through the leveraging of science and technical information, the prominence of values in debates about landslide regulation indicate that science-based policy approaches that do not consider values may encounter more challenges from the public

Theory of Provocation

The present volume discusses the subject of provocation and its various applications in the field of political science. Provocation itself combines the artificial induction of events, attitudes and human behavior, and the unilateral prejudging of issues, resulting in the interlocutor being surprised, trapped, manipulated or extorted. A political provocation manifests itself in various forms: productive or parasitic; pointed, collective or networked influence; initiative or reactive and reflexive; causal, deceptive or discrediting; constructive or destructive. The author brings forth real-world examples to illuminate the various intricacies of this concept, its applications, aims, and much more

Exploring the social impacts of the expansion of the port of Durban.

Masters Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.Current research demonstrates that spatial developments are mostly the cause of social, environmental, and economic problems. While businesses expand, the quality of life in most communities deteriorates due to the social impacts that are associated with the expansion of industries. Governments are increasingly prioritizing and commissioning infrastructure of megaprojects such as ports, which are often supported by economic impact studies. The port of Durban is currently experiencing capacity constraints as a result of the congestion problems facing the harbour. The port developers (Transnet) proposed to expand the port as a solution to the congestion impediments. The old Durban airport relocated to La Mercy, presenting an opportunity to Transnet to purchase the old airport site at South Durban Basin (SDB) to commence the expansion of the port of Durban. The expansion plans include building a new port, construction of a link road from the Bluff through Clairwood, Austerville, and Merebank to connect with the national roads network. This research aims to explore the social impacts of the expansion of the port of Durban for the communities in the South Durban Basin. Underpinned by the Social impact theory and the Psychological impact theory, this study seeks to explore the extent to which the expansion of the Port of Durban will impact on SDB communities as well as determining whether the port expansion is justified for port development. The study used both primary and secondary data. The results of the research indicate that the magnitude of the social impacts and enormity of it all are such that the change in the lives of people living in SDB will be for the worst, given the current problems existing in the area. The expansion plans have been viewed to cause more “havoc” in the area. Moreover, the expansion of the port is not justified for port development because expanding the port may not necessarily mean that they will be to the degree required to remain competitive

Security Analysis: A Critical Thinking Approach

Security Analysis: A Critical-Thinking Approach is for anyone desiring to learn techniques for generating the best answers to complex questions and best solutions to complex problems. It furnishes current and future analysts in national security, homeland security, law enforcement, and corporate security an alternative, comprehensive process for conducting both intelligence analysis and policy analysis. The target audience is upper-division undergraduate students and new graduate students, along with entry-level practitioner trainees. The book centers on a Security Analysis Critical-Thinking Framework that synthesizes critical-thinking and existing analytic techniques. Ample examples are provided to assist readers in comprehending the material. Newly created material includes techniques for analyzing beliefs and political cultures. The book also functions as an introduction to Foreign Policy and Security Studies.https://encompass.eku.edu/ekuopen/1005/thumbnail.jp

Luonnon monimuotoisuuteen liittyvät neuvottelut kaupunkisuunnittelussa: Roolipeli

The need to develop and expand urban areas is increasing in most countries, but urbanization also increases the threat for global biodiversity. Some cities have acknowledged this challenge and formed strategies and action plans for biodiversity preservation. How can we ensure that such strategies are realized in city planning? Negotiations are a crucial part of urban planning, and therefore can be a leverage point of intervention to effectively implement strategies to pro-tect biodiversity. However, little is known about the dynamics of the actual negotiation process in city planning. I applied a game theoretic approach to study how information availability influences the suc-cess and efficiency of negotiations. A role-playing game was used to simulate a negotiation on specific measures to preserve biodiversity in a residential building project. Eleven urban devel-opment specialists played the game with different sets of information. In addition to the direct outcomes of the negotiation, I analysed the post hoc discussion and arguments used to gain in-sights into perceptions of biodiversity-related negotiations in urban planning. Results indicate that information availability can increase the efficiency of negotiations. Partici-pants favour principled and integrative negotiation, but incomplete information seems to push them to take a more positional stance. The post hoc discussion also reveals some issues rele-vant to the design of urban planning process for biodiversity. The overall results suggest that a simple game-theoretic framework, implemented in (a) game-like simulation with quasi-experimental control and (b) qualitative analysis of discussions, holds potential for both under-standing (i) how decision makers frame and resolve the negotiation with conflicting interests and (ii) how to design efficient administrative processes taking into account not only the partic-ipants’ preferences but also wider public interests, such as biodiversity preservation

Improving Compliance: Listening to the Patient\u27s Perspective

A large number of patients do not follow medical advice for reasons generally unclear to the health care provider. Significant morbidity and mortality can be outcomes of noncompliance. The purpose of this naturalistic inquiry was to study and clarify from the patient\u27s perspective, issues identified as influencing the ability to comply with provider recommendations. Data collection and analysis occurred simultaneously as a fluid process of organizing and synthesizing qualitative material into categories or themes that emerged to illuminate a phenomenon. Seventy-six percent of participants described themselves as 100% compliant though they did not take medications as prescribed or failed to follow through with other recommendations, such as lifestyle changes. Participants listed positive perceptions when the provider: related to them, listened, addressed concerns, and included them in the plan of care. The provider behavior of listening was important to patients but was not the only aspect identified with a potential influence on compliance levels. Unexpected study findings included connections between symptomatology and medications, control issues between patient and provider, and the patient\u27s perceptions of office personnel attitudes

Modeling Deception for Cyber Security

In the era of software-intensive, smart and connected systems, the growing power and so- phistication of cyber attacks poses increasing challenges to software security. The reactive posture of traditional security mechanisms, such as anti-virus and intrusion detection systems, has not been sufficient to combat a wide range of advanced persistent threats that currently jeopardize systems operation. To mitigate these extant threats, more ac- tive defensive approaches are necessary. Such approaches rely on the concept of actively hindering and deceiving attackers. Deceptive techniques allow for additional defense by thwarting attackers’ advances through the manipulation of their perceptions. Manipu- lation is achieved through the use of deceitful responses, feints, misdirection, and other falsehoods in a system. Of course, such deception mechanisms may result in side-effects that must be handled. Current methods for planning deception chiefly portray attempts to bridge military deception to cyber deception, providing only high-level instructions that largely ignore deception as part of the software security development life cycle. Con- sequently, little practical guidance is provided on how to engineering deception-based techniques for defense. This PhD thesis contributes with a systematic approach to specify and design cyber deception requirements, tactics, and strategies. This deception approach consists of (i) a multi-paradigm modeling for representing deception requirements, tac- tics, and strategies, (ii) a reference architecture to support the integration of deception strategies into system operation, and (iii) a method to guide engineers in deception mod- eling. A tool prototype, a case study, and an experimental evaluation show encouraging results for the application of the approach in practice. Finally, a conceptual coverage map- ping was developed to assess the expressivity of the deception modeling language created.Na era digital o crescente poder e sofisticação dos ataques cibernéticos apresenta constan- tes desafios para a segurança do software. A postura reativa dos mecanismos tradicionais de segurança, como os sistemas antivírus e de detecção de intrusão, não têm sido suficien- tes para combater a ampla gama de ameaças que comprometem a operação dos sistemas de software actuais. Para mitigar estas ameaças são necessárias abordagens ativas de defesa. Tais abordagens baseiam-se na ideia de adicionar mecanismos para enganar os adversários (do inglês deception). As técnicas de enganação (em português, "ato ou efeito de enganar, de induzir em erro; artimanha usada para iludir") contribuem para a defesa frustrando o avanço dos atacantes por manipulação das suas perceções. A manipula- ção é conseguida através de respostas enganadoras, de "fintas", ou indicações erróneas e outras falsidades adicionadas intencionalmente num sistema. É claro que esses meca- nismos de enganação podem resultar em efeitos colaterais que devem ser tratados. Os métodos atuais usados para enganar um atacante inspiram-se fundamentalmente nas técnicas da área militar, fornecendo apenas instruções de alto nível que ignoram, em grande parte, a enganação como parte do ciclo de vida do desenvolvimento de software seguro. Consequentemente, há poucas referências práticas em como gerar técnicas de defesa baseadas em enganação. Esta tese de doutoramento contribui com uma aborda- gem sistemática para especificar e desenhar requisitos, táticas e estratégias de enganação cibernéticas. Esta abordagem é composta por (i) uma modelação multi-paradigma para re- presentar requisitos, táticas e estratégias de enganação, (ii) uma arquitetura de referência para apoiar a integração de estratégias de enganação na operação dum sistema, e (iii) um método para orientar os engenheiros na modelação de enganação. Uma ferramenta protó- tipo, um estudo de caso e uma avaliação experimental mostram resultados encorajadores para a aplicação da abordagem na prática. Finalmente, a expressividade da linguagem de modelação de enganação é avaliada por um mapeamento de cobertura de conceitos