Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Design optimization applied in structural dynamics

This paper introduces the design optimization strategies, especially for structures which have dynamic constraints. Design optimization involves first the modeling and then the optimization of the problem. Utilizing the Finite Element (FE) model of a structure directly in an optimization process requires a long computation time. Therefore the Backpropagation Neural Networks (NNs) are introduced as a so called surrogate model for the FE model. Optimization techniques mentioned in this study cover the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) methods. For the applications of the introduced techniques, a multisegment cantilever beam problem under the constraints of its first and second natural frequency has been selected and solved using four different approaches

Two neural network algorithms for designing optimal terminal controllers with open final time

Multilayer neural networks, trained by the backpropagation through time algorithm (BPTT), have been used successfully as state-feedback controllers for nonlinear terminal control problems. Current BPTT techniques, however, are not able to deal systematically with open final-time situations such as minimum-time problems. Two approaches which extend BPTT to open final-time problems are presented. In the first, a neural network learns a mapping from initial-state to time-to-go. In the second, the optimal number of steps for each trial run is found using a line-search. Both methods are derived using Lagrange multiplier techniques. This theoretical framework is used to demonstrate that the derived algorithms are direct extensions of forward/backward sweep methods used in N-stage optimal control. The two algorithms are tested on a Zermelo problem and the resulting trajectories compare favorably to optimal control results

A practical Bayesian framework for backpropagation networks

A quantitative and practical Bayesian framework is described for learning of mappings in feedforward networks. The framework makes possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures, (2) objective stopping rules for network pruning or growing procedures, (3) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms or additive regularizers (for penalizing large weights, etc.), (4) a measure of the effective number of well-determined parameters in a model, (5) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output, and (6) objective comparisons with alternative learning and interpolation models such as splines and radial basis functions. The Bayesian "evidence" automatically embodies "Occam's razor," penalizing overflexible and overcomplex models. The Bayesian approach helps detect poor underlying assumptions in learning models. For learning models well matched to a problem, a good correlation between generalization ability and the Bayesian evidence is obtained

Neural networks and support vector machines based bio-activity classification

Classification of various compounds into their respective biological activity classes is important in drug discovery applications from an early phase virtual compound filtering and screening point of view. In this work two types of neural networks, multi layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis functions (RBF), and support vector machines (SVM) were employed for the classification of three types of biologically active enzyme inhibitors. Both of the networks were trained with back propagation learning method with chemical compounds whose active inhibition properties were previously known. A group of topological indices, selected with the help of principle component analysis (PCA) were used as descriptors. The results of all the three classification methods show that the performance of both the neural networks is better than the SVM