THE EVACUATION PROBLEM IN MULTI-STORY BUILDINGS

The pressure from high population density leads to the creation of high-rise structures within urban areas. Consequently, the design of facilities which confront the challenges of emergency evacuation from high-rise buildings become a complex concern. This paper proposes an embedded program which combines a deterministic (GMAFLAD) and stochastic model (M/G/C/C State Dependent Queueing model) into one program, GMAF_MGCC, to solve an evacuation problem. An evacuation problem belongs to Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) class which will be formulated as a Quadratic Set Packing model (QSP) including the random flow out of the building and the random pairwise traffic flow among activities. The procedure starts with solving the QSP model to find all potential optimal layouts for the problem. Then, the stochastic model calculates an evacuation time of each solution which is the primary decision variable to figure the best design for the building. Here we also discuss relevant topics to the new program including the computational accuracy and the correlation between a successful rate of solving and problems’ scale. This thesis examines the relationship of independent variables including arrival rate, population and a number of stories with the dependent variable, evacuation time. Finally, the study also analyzes the probability distribution of an evacuation time for a wide range of problem scale

Dynamic Congestion and Tolls with Mobile Source Emission

This paper proposes a dynamic congestion pricing model that takes into account mobile source emissions. We consider a tollable vehicular network where the users selfishly minimize their own travel costs, including travel time, early/late arrival penalties and tolls. On top of that, we assume that part of the network can be tolled by a central authority, whose objective is to minimize both total travel costs of road users and total emission on a network-wide level. The model is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) problem and then reformulated as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC). The MPCC is solved using a quadratic penalty-based gradient projection algorithm. A numerical study on a toy network illustrates the effectiveness of the tolling strategy and reveals a Braess-type paradox in the context of traffic-derived emission.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables. Current version to appear in the Proceedings of the 20th International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory, 2013, the Netherland

Sensitivity analysis of the variable demand probit stochastic user equilibrium with multiple user classes

This paper presents a formulation of the multiple user class, variable demand, probit stochastic user equilibrium model. Sufficient conditions are stated for differentiability of the equilibrium flows of this model. This justifies the derivation of sensitivity expressions for the equilibrium flows, which are presented in a format that can be implemented in commercially available software. A numerical example verifies the sensitivity expressions, and that this formulation is applicable to large networks

Random Neural Networks and Optimisation

In this thesis we introduce new models and learning algorithms for the Random Neural Network (RNN), and we develop RNN-based and other approaches for the solution of emergency management optimisation problems. With respect to RNN developments, two novel supervised learning algorithms are proposed. The first, is a gradient descent algorithm for an RNN extension model that we have introduced, the RNN with synchronised interactions (RNNSI), which was inspired from the synchronised firing activity observed in brain neural circuits. The second algorithm is based on modelling the signal-flow equations in RNN as a nonnegative least squares (NNLS) problem. NNLS is solved using a limited-memory quasi-Newton algorithm specifically designed for the RNN case. Regarding the investigation of emergency management optimisation problems, we examine combinatorial assignment problems that require fast, distributed and close to optimal solution, under information uncertainty. We consider three different problems with the above characteristics associated with the assignment of emergency units to incidents with injured civilians (AEUI), the assignment of assets to tasks under execution uncertainty (ATAU), and the deployment of a robotic network to establish communication with trapped civilians (DRNCTC). AEUI is solved by training an RNN tool with instances of the optimisation problem and then using the trained RNN for decision making; training is achieved using the developed learning algorithms. For the solution of ATAU problem, we introduce two different approaches. The first is based on mapping parameters of the optimisation problem to RNN parameters, and the second on solving a sequence of minimum cost flow problems on appropriately constructed networks with estimated arc costs. For the exact solution of DRNCTC problem, we develop a mixed-integer linear programming formulation, which is based on network flows. Finally, we design and implement distributed heuristic algorithms for the deployment of robots when the civilian locations are known or uncertain

Improved Calibration Method for Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models

The calibration of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models involves the estimation of model parameters to best replicate real-world measurements. Good calibration is essential to estimate and predict accurately traffic states, which are crucial for traffic management applications to alleviate congestion. A widely used approach to calibrate simulation-based DTA models is the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The EKF assumes that the DTA model parameters are unconstrained, although they are in fact constrained; for instance, origin–destination (O-D) flows are nonnegative. This assumption is typically not problematic for small- and medium-scale networks in which the EKF has been successfully applied. However, in large-scale networks (which typically contain numbers of O-D pairs with small magnitudes of flow), the estimates may severely violate constraints. In consequence, simply truncating the infeasible estimates may result in the divergence of EKF, leading to extremely poor state estimations and predictions. To address this issue, a constrained EKF (CEKF) approach is presented; it imposes constraints on the posterior distribution of the state estimators to obtain the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates that are feasible. The MAP estimates are obtained with a heuristic followed by the coordinate descent method. The procedure determines the optimum and are computationally faster by 31.5% over coordinate descent and by 94.9% over the interior point method. Experiments on the Singapore expressway network indicated that the CEKF significantly improved model accuracy and outperformed the traditional EKF (up to 78.17%) and generalized least squares (up to 17.13%) approaches in state estimation and prediction

Optimal CH-47 and C-130 Workload Balance

The Air Force can save thousands of dollars by reducing the number of blade hours on the CH-47 through finding an optimal mixture of CH-47s and C-130s to conduct current operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Ultimately these savings will relieve maintenance operations for the CH-47 and lengthen the lifespan of the CH-47 airframe. Moreover, incorporating C-130s into the operations will reduce cargo transit time from supply depots. This study looks at the involvement of the C-130 in CH-47 airlift operations to reduce CH-47 usage and increase supply efficiency. The research focus is narrowed to current airlift operations in Afghanistan and Iraq in the CENTCOM theater of operation. A mathematical representation of current CH-47 operations augmented with C-130s is the foundation of this research. Particularly, these operations in CENTCOM\u27s area of operations are formulated as linear transportation problems using network mathematics. The uniqueness this research offers entails modified scenarios of the transportation problem solved as an optimization model. AMC requires additional constraints to be augmented with the basic transportation linear model that pushes this application in new areas. In addition, the uncommon layout of supply depots to the specified receiving airfields in Afghanistan and Iraq provide an altogether new kind of transportation problem

Applications of sensitivity analysis for probit stochastic network equilibrium

Network equilibrium models are widely used by traffic practitioners to aid them in making decisions concerning the operation and management of traffic networks. The common practice is to test a prescribed range of hypothetical changes or policy measures through adjustments to the input data, namely the trip demands, the arc performance (travel time) functions, and policy variables such as tolls or signal timings. Relatively little use is, however, made of the full implicit relationship between model inputs and outputs inherent in these models. By exploiting the representation of such models as an equivalent optimisation problem, classical results on the sensitivity analysis of non-linear programs may be applied, to produce linear relationships between input data perturbations and model outputs. We specifically focus on recent results relating to the probit Stochastic User Equilibrium (PSUE) model, which has the advantage of greater behavioural realism and flexibility relative to the conventional Wardrop user equilibrium and logit SUE models. The paper goes on to explore four applications of these sensitivity expressions in gaining insight into the operation of road traffic networks. These applications are namely: identification of sensitive, ‘critical’ parameters; computation of approximate, re-equilibrated solutions following a change (post-optimisation); robustness analysis of model forecasts to input data errors, in the form of confidence interval estimation; and the solution of problems of the bi-level, optimal network design variety. Finally, numerical experiments applying these methods are reported