Incorporating Spatial Complexity into Economic Models of Land Markets and Land Use Change

Recent work in regional science, geography, and urban economics has advanced spatial modeling of land markets and land use by incorporating greater spatial complexity, including multiple sources of spatial heterogeneity, multiple spatial scales, and spatial dynamics. Doing so has required a move away from relying solely on analytical models to partial or full reliance on computational methods that can account for these added features of spatial complexity. In the first part of the paper, we review economic models of urban land development that have incorporated greater spatial complexity, focusing on spatial simulation models with spatial endogenous feedbacks and multiple sources of spatial heterogeneity. The second part of the paper presents a spatial simulation model of exurban land development using an auction model to represent household bidding that extends the traditional Capozza and Helsley (1990) model of urban growth to account for spatial dynamics in the form of local land use spillovers and spatially heterogeneous land characteristics.urban growth, urbanization, land development, spatial dynamics, heterogeneity, agent-based models, spatial interactions, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

THE ECOLOGICAL IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

Abstract There is a long-standing debate over whether new roads unavoidably lead to environmental damage, especially forest loss, but causal identification has been elusive. Using multiple causal identification strategies, we study the construction of new rural roads to over 100,000 villages and the upgrading of 10,000 kilometers of national highways in India. The new rural roads had precisely zero effect on local deforestation. In contrast, the highway upgrades caused substantial forest loss, which appears to be driven by increased timber demand along the transportation corridors. In terms of forests, last mile connectivity had a negligible environmental cost, while expansion of major corridors had important environmental impacts

Returns from Income Strategies in Rural Poland

In order to stabilize and improve their income situation, rural households are strongly encouraged to diversify their activities both in and outside the agricultural sector. Most often, however, this phenomenon takes on only moderate proportions. This paper addresses issues of rural households’ income diversification in the case of Poland. It investigates returns from rural households’ income strategies using propensity score matching methods and extensive datasets spanning 1998-2008. Results suggest that returns from combining farm and off-farm activities were lower than returns from specialization, namely, concentrating on farming or on off-farm activities. Generally, farming seems to be the most attractive option for rural households and income difference between farmers and those who combine farming and off-farm activities increased after Poland joined the EU.Income diversification, rural areas, propensity score matching, Poland, Community/Rural/Urban Development, D31, O15, Q12,

Global Sourcing Decisions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Spain

We investigate the link between productivity of firms and their sourcing behavior. Following Antràs & Helpman (2004) we distinguish between domestic and foreign sourcing, as well as between outsourcing and vertical integration. A firm’s choice is driven by a hold-up problem caused by lack of enforceable contracts. We use Spanish firm-level data to examine the productivity premia associated with the different sourcing strategies. We find strong empirical support for the predictions of the model.productivity, outsourcing, intra-firm trade, foreign direct investment, incomplete contracts, firm-level data

Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use

Unsustainable water use challenges the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continued growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting future water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the larger-scale policy interventions. Using a global partial equilibrium grid-resolving model SIMPLE-G, and coupling it with the global Water Balance Model, we simulate the consequences of reducing unsustainable irrigation for food security, land use change, and terrestrial carbon. A variety of future (2050) scenarios are considered that interact irrigation productivity with two policy interventions— inter-basin water transfers and international commodity market integration. We find that pursuing sustainable irrigation may erode other development and environmental goals due to higher food prices and cropland expansion. This results in over 800 000 more undernourished people and 0.87 GtC additional emissions. Faster total factor productivity growth in irrigated sectors will encourage more aggressive irrigation water use in the basins where irrigation vulnerability is expected to be reduced by inter-basin water transfer. By allowing for a systematic comparison of these alternative adaptations to future irrigation vulnerability, the global gridded modeling approach offers unique insights into the multiscale nature of the water scarcity challenge

An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany

For studying both individual-level and small-scale contextual influences on the effects of family policies on fertility, Multilevel Event History methods are the state-of-the-art. But in many countries, these methods cannot be applied because the available individual-level data are inadequate. This paper uses an alternative methodological framework that can be of help in these cases. It utilizes small-scale macro data, which is analyzed with Exploratory Data, Cluster, and Spatial Panel Model Analysis techniques. In a case study on the western German city of Bremen, the potential of this approach, as well as its limitations, are investigated. The study analyzes the impact of the parental leave reform of 1986 and the child benefit reform of 1996 on fertility levels in different city quarters (Stadtteile) of Bremen. The results indicate that both family policy reforms had, at least in the short-term, a significant impact on fertility levels. These positive effects were stronger in economically disadvantaged quarters. The findings also suggest that the reforms affected the timing more than the quantum of fertility. With regard to the methodological framework, we can conclude that the Spatial Analysis with small-scale macro data is a useful alternative when there is no individual-level data available for carrying out a Multilevel Event History Analysis.Bremen, Germany, family policies, fertility trends, methodology, spatial analysis

Rivalry and Learning Among Clustered and Isolated Firms

In this paper explore the relationships between rivalry and geographical proximity at the very level of contacts between individual firms. In particular, we wish to highlight the influence of geographical proximity on rival identification, on the comparison of their knowledge, and on the consequent elaboration of a strategy. In order to reproduce the interactions between firms, we made use of an agent-based model (ABM) where the strategic choices of rival firms are derived from general assumptions on competitive behavior and learning processes. Aim of the model is to investigate the co-evolution of firms' knowledge, strategies and performances. Substantial empirical evidences claim that firms located in geographical clusters are more likely to learn and innovate than isolated firms.Industrial Clusters, Industrial Districts, Knowledge Development, Rivalry

Taking movement data to new depths : Inferring prey availability and patch profitability from seabird foraging behavior

Funded byNatural Environment Research Council. Grant Number: NE/K007440/1 and Marine Scotland Science and Seabird Tracking and Research (STAR) Project led by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB)Peer reviewedPublisher PD