A Principled Methodology: A Dozen Principles of Software Effort Estimation

Software effort estimation (SEE) is the activity of estimating the total effort required to complete a software project. Correctly estimating the effort required for a software project is of vital importance for the competitiveness of the organizations. Both under- and over-estimation leads to undesirable consequences for the organizations. Under-estimation may result in overruns in budget and schedule, which in return may cause the cancellation of projects; thereby, wasting the entire effort spent until that point. Over-estimation may cause promising projects not to be funded; hence, harming the organizational competitiveness.;Due to the significant role of SEE for software organizations, there is a considerable research effort invested in SEE. Thanks to the accumulation of decades of prior research, today we are able to identify the core issues and search for the right principles to tackle pressing questions. For example, regardless of decades of work, we still lack concrete answers to important questions such as: What is the best SEE method? The introduced estimation methods make use of local data, however not all the companies have their own data, so: How can we handle the lack of local data? Common SEE methods take size attributes for granted, yet size attributes are costly and the practitioners place very little trust in them. Hence, we ask: How can we avoid the use of size attributes? Collection of data, particularly dependent variable information (i.e. effort values) is costly: How can find an essential subset of the SEE data sets? Finally, studies make use of sampling methods to justify a new method\u27s performance on SEE data sets. Yet, trade-off among different variants is ignored: How should we choose sampling methods for SEE experiments? ;This thesis is a rigorous investigation towards identification and tackling of the pressing issues in SEE. Our findings rely on extensive experimentation performed with a large corpus of estimation techniques on a large set of public and proprietary data sets. We summarize our findings and industrial experience in the form of 12 principles: 1) Know your domain 2) Let the Experts Talk 3) Suspect your data 4) Data Collection is Cyclic 5) Use a Ranking Stability Indicator 6) Assemble Superior Methods 7) Weighting Analogies is Over-elaboration 8) Use Easy-path Design 9) Use Relevancy Filtering 10) Use Outlier Pruning 11) Combine Outlier and Synonym Pruning 12) Be Aware of Sampling Method Trade-off

Profiling Instances in Noise Reduction

The dependency on the quality of the training data has led to significant work in noise reduction for instance-based learning algorithms. This paper presents an empirical evaluation of current noise reduction techniques, not just from the perspective of their comparative performance, but from the perspective of investigating the types of instances that they focus on for re- moval. A novel instance profiling technique known as RDCL profiling allows the structure of a training set to be analysed at the instance level cate- gorising each instance based on modelling their local competence properties. This profiling approach o↵ers the opportunity of investigating the types of instances removed by the noise reduction techniques that are currently in use in instance-based learning. The paper also considers the e↵ect of removing instances with specific profiles from a dataset and shows that a very simple approach of removing instances that are misclassified by the training set and cause other instances in the dataset to be misclassified is an e↵ective noise reduction technique

Retrieval, reuse, revision and retention in case-based reasoning

El original está disponible en www.journals.cambridge.orgCase-based reasoning (CBR) is an approach to problem solving that emphasizes the role of prior experience during future problem solving (i.e., new problems are solved by reusing and if necessary adapting the solutions to similar problems that were solved in the past). It has enjoyed considerable success in a wide variety of problem solving tasks and domains. Following a brief overview of the traditional problem-solving cycle in CBR, we examine the cognitive science foundations of CBR and its relationship to analogical reasoning. We then review a representative selection of CBR research in the past few decades on aspects of retrieval, reuse, revision, and retention.Peer reviewe

Univariate and multivariate pattern analysis of preterm subjects: a multimodal neuroimaging study

Background: Widespread lasting functional connectivity (FC) and brain volume changes in cortices and subcortices after premature birth have been researched in recent studies. However, the relationship remains unclear between spontaneously slow blood oxygen dependent level (BOLD) fluctuations and gray matter volume (GMV) changes in specific brain areas, such as temporal insular cortices, and whether classification methods based on MRI could be successfully applied to the identification of preterm individuals. In this thesis I hypothesized that in prematurely born adults 1. Ongoing neural excitability and brain activity, as estimated by regional functional connectivity of resting state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) is accompanied with altered low-frequency fluctuations and neonatal complications; 2. Altered regional functional connectivity is connected with superimposed cerebral structural reductions; and 3. multivariate neuroanatomical and functional brain patterns could be treated as features to identify preterm subjects from term subjects individually. Methods: To investigate these hypotheses, the principal results of structural alterations were measured with voxel-based morphometry (VBM), while rs-fMRI outcomes were estimated with amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFF) in analysis with ninety-four very preterm/very low birth weight (VP/VLBW) and ninety-two full-term (FT) born young adults. Results: The results of the thesis support the hypotheses by showing that, in univariate results, first in VP/VLBW grownups, ALFF was decreased in the left lateral temporal cortices no matter with global signal regression, and this reduction was closely associated with neonatal complications and cognitive variables. Second overlapped brain regions were found between reduced ALFF and reduced brain volumes in the left temporal cortices, and positively associated with each other, demonstrating a potential relationship between VBM and ALFF in this brain area. In multimodal multivariate pattern recognition analysis (MVPA), the gray matter volume (GMV) classifier displayed a higher accuracy (80.7%) contrast with the ALFF classifier (77.4%). The late fusion of GMV and ALFF did not outperform single GMV modality classification by reaching 80.4% accuracy. Moderator analysis from both rs-fMRI and structural MRI (sMRI) uncovered that the neuro-prematurity performance was predominantly determined by neonatal complications. Conclusions: In conclusion, these outcomes exhibit the long term effects of premature labour on lateral temporal cortices, which changed in both ongoing BOLD fluctuations and decreased cerebral structural volumes. This thesis further provided evidence that multivariate pattern analysis such as support vector machine (SVM) may identify imaging-based biomarkers and reliably detect signatures of preterm birth

Univariate and multivariate pattern analysis of preterm subjects: a multimodal neuroimaging study

Background: Widespread lasting functional connectivity (FC) and brain volume changes in cortices and subcortices after premature birth have been researched in recent studies. However, the relationship remains unclear between spontaneously slow blood oxygen dependent level (BOLD) fluctuations and gray matter volume (GMV) changes in specific brain areas, such as temporal insular cortices, and whether classification methods based on MRI could be successfully applied to the identification of preterm individuals. In this thesis I hypothesized that in prematurely born adults 1. Ongoing neural excitability and brain activity, as estimated by regional functional connectivity of resting state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) is accompanied with altered low-frequency fluctuations and neonatal complications; 2. Altered regional functional connectivity is connected with superimposed cerebral structural reductions; and 3. multivariate neuroanatomical and functional brain patterns could be treated as features to identify preterm subjects from term subjects individually. Methods: To investigate these hypotheses, the principal results of structural alterations were measured with voxel-based morphometry (VBM), while rs-fMRI outcomes were estimated with amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFF) in analysis with ninety-four very preterm/very low birth weight (VP/VLBW) and ninety-two full-term (FT) born young adults. Results: The results of the thesis support the hypotheses by showing that, in univariate results, first in VP/VLBW grownups, ALFF was decreased in the left lateral temporal cortices no matter with global signal regression, and this reduction was closely associated with neonatal complications and cognitive variables. Second overlapped brain regions were found between reduced ALFF and reduced brain volumes in the left temporal cortices, and positively associated with each other, demonstrating a potential relationship between VBM and ALFF in this brain area. In multimodal multivariate pattern recognition analysis (MVPA), the gray matter volume (GMV) classifier displayed a higher accuracy (80.7%) contrast with the ALFF classifier (77.4%). The late fusion of GMV and ALFF did not outperform single GMV modality classification by reaching 80.4% accuracy. Moderator analysis from both rs-fMRI and structural MRI (sMRI) uncovered that the neuro-prematurity performance was predominantly determined by neonatal complications. Conclusions: In conclusion, these outcomes exhibit the long term effects of premature labour on lateral temporal cortices, which changed in both ongoing BOLD fluctuations and decreased cerebral structural volumes. This thesis further provided evidence that multivariate pattern analysis such as support vector machine (SVM) may identify imaging-based biomarkers and reliably detect signatures of preterm birth

A Corpus Driven Computational Intelligence Framework for Deception Detection in Financial Text

Financial fraud rampages onwards seemingly uncontained. The annual cost of fraud in the UK is estimated to be as high as £193bn a year [1] . From a data science perspective and hitherto less explored this thesis demonstrates how the use of linguistic features to drive data mining algorithms can aid in unravelling fraud. To this end, the spotlight is turned on Financial Statement Fraud (FSF), known to be the costliest type of fraud [2]. A new corpus of 6.3 million words is composed of102 annual reports/10-K (narrative sections) from firms formally indicted for FSF juxtaposed with 306 non-fraud firms of similar size and industrial grouping. Differently from other similar studies, this thesis uniquely takes a wide angled view and extracts a range of features of different categories from the corpus. These linguistic correlates of deception are uncovered using a variety of techniques and tools. Corpus linguistics methodology is applied to extract keywords and to examine linguistic structure. N-grams are extracted to draw out collocations. Readability measurement in financial text is advanced through the extraction of new indices that probe the text at a deeper level. Cognitive and perceptual processes are also picked out. Tone, intention and liquidity are gauged using customised word lists. Linguistic ratios are derived from grammatical constructs and word categories. An attempt is also made to determine ‘what’ was said as opposed to ‘how’. Further a new module is developed to condense synonyms into concepts. Lastly frequency counts from keywords unearthed from a previous content analysis study on financial narrative are also used. These features are then used to drive machine learning based classification and clustering algorithms to determine if they aid in discriminating a fraud from a non-fraud firm. The results derived from the battery of models built typically exceed classification accuracy of 70%. The above process is amalgamated into a framework. The process outlined, driven by empirical data demonstrates in a practical way how linguistic analysis could aid in fraud detection and also constitutes a unique contribution made to deception detection studies

Memory Models for Incremental Learning Architectures

Losing V. Memory Models for Incremental Learning Architectures. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld; 2019.Technological advancement leads constantly to an exponential growth of generated data in basically every domain, drastically increasing the burden of data storage and maintenance. Most of the data is instantaneously extracted and available in form of endless streams that contain the most current information. Machine learning methods constitute one fundamental way of processing such data in an automatic way, as they generate models that capture the processes behind the data. They are omnipresent in our everyday life as their applications include personalized advertising, recommendations, fraud detection, surveillance, credit ratings, high-speed trading and smart-home devices. Thereby, batch learning, denoting the offline construction of a static model based on large datasets, is the predominant scheme. However, it is increasingly unfit to deal with the accumulating masses of data in given time and in particularly its static nature cannot handle changing patterns. In contrast, incremental learning constitutes one attractive alternative that is a very natural fit for the current demands. Its dynamic adaptation allows continuous processing of data streams, without the necessity to store all data from the past, and results in always up-to-date models, even able to perform in non-stationary environments. In this thesis, we will tackle crucial research questions in the domain of incremental learning by contributing new algorithms or significantly extending existing ones. Thereby, we consider stationary and non-stationary environments and present multiple real-world applications that showcase merits of the methods as well as their versatility. The main contributions are the following: One novel approach that addresses the question of how to extend a model for prototype-based algorithms based on cost minimization. We propose local split-time prediction for incremental decision trees to mitigate the trade-off between adaptation speed versus model complexity and run time. An extensive survey of the strengths and weaknesses of state-of-the-art methods that provides guidance for choosing a suitable algorithm for a given task. One new approach to extract valuable information about the type of change in a dataset. We contribute a biologically inspired architecture, able to handle different types of drift using dedicated memories that are kept consistent. Application of the novel methods within three diverse real-world tasks, highlighting their robustness and versatility. Investigation of personalized online models in the context of two real-world applications

Adaptive classifier ensembles for face recognition in video-surveillance

Lors de l’implémentation de systèmes de sécurité tels que la vidéo-surveillance intelligente, l’utilisation d’images de visages présente de nombreux avantages par rapport à d’autres traits biométriques. En particulier, cela permet de détecter d’éventuels individus d’intérêt de manière discrète et non intrusive, ce qui peut être particulièrement avantageux dans des situations comme la détection d’individus sur liste noire, la recherche dans des données archivées ou la ré-identification de visages. Malgré cela, la reconnaissance de visages reste confrontée à de nombreuses difficultés propres à la vidéo surveillance. Entre autres, le manque de contrôle sur l’environnement observé implique de nombreuses variations dans les conditions d’éclairage, la résolution de l’image, le flou de mouvement, l’orientation et l’expression des visages. Pour reconnaître des individus, des modèles de visages sont habituellement générés à l’aide d’un nombre limité d’images ou de vidéos de référence collectées lors de sessions d’inscription. Cependant, ces acquisitions ne se déroulant pas nécessairement dans les mêmes conditions d’observation, les données de référence représentent pas toujours la complexité du problème réel. D’autre part, bien qu’il soit possible d’adapter les modèles de visage lorsque de nouvelles données de référence deviennent disponibles, un apprentissage incrémental basé sur des données significativement différentes expose le système à un risque de corruption de connaissances. Enfin, seule une partie de ces connaissances est effectivement pertinente pour la classification d’une image donnée. Dans cette thèse, un nouveau système est proposé pour la détection automatique d’individus d’intérêt en vidéo-surveillance. Plus particulièrement, celle-ci se concentre sur un scénario centré sur l’utilisateur, où un système de reconnaissance de visages est intégré à un outil d’aide à la décision pour alerter un opérateur lorsqu’un individu d’intérêt est détecté sur des flux vidéo. Un tel système se doit d’être capable d’ajouter ou supprimer des individus d’intérêt durant son fonctionnement, ainsi que de mettre à jour leurs modèles de visage dans le temps avec des nouvelles données de référence. Pour cela, le système proposé se base sur de la détection de changement de concepts pour guider une stratégie d’apprentissage impliquant des ensembles de classificateurs. Chaque individu inscrit dans le système est représenté par un ensemble de classificateurs à deux classes, chacun étant spécialisé dans des conditions d’observation différentes, détectées dans les données de référence. De plus, une nouvelle règle pour la fusion dynamique d’ensembles de classificateurs est proposée, utilisant des modèles de concepts pour estimer la pertinence des classificateurs vis-à-vis de chaque image à classifier. Enfin, les visages sont suivis d’une image à l’autre dans le but de les regrouper en trajectoires, et accumuler les décisions dans le temps. Au Chapitre 2, la détection de changement de concept est dans un premier temps utilisée pour limiter l’augmentation de complexité d’un système d’appariement de modèles adoptant une stratégie de mise à jour automatique de ses galeries. Une nouvelle approche sensible au contexte est proposée, dans laquelle seules les images de haute confiance capturées dans des conditions d’observation différentes sont utilisées pour mettre à jour les modèles de visage. Des expérimentations ont été conduites avec trois bases de données de visages publiques. Un système d’appariement de modèles standard a été utilisé, combiné avec un module de détection de changement dans les conditions d’illumination. Les résultats montrent que l’approche proposée permet de diminuer la complexité de ces systèmes, tout en maintenant la performance dans le temps. Au Chapitre 3, un nouveau système adaptatif basé des ensembles de classificateurs est proposé pour la reconnaissance de visages en vidéo-surveillance. Il est composé d’un ensemble de classificateurs incrémentaux pour chaque individu inscrit, et se base sur la détection de changement de concepts pour affiner les modèles de visage lorsque de nouvelles données sont disponibles. Une stratégie hybride est proposée, dans laquelle des classificateurs ne sont ajoutés aux ensembles que lorsqu’un changement abrupt est détecté dans les données de référence. Lors d’un changement graduel, les classificateurs associés sont mis à jour, ce qui permet d’affiner les connaissances propres au concept correspondant. Une implémentation particulière de ce système est proposée, utilisant des ensembles de classificateurs de type Fuzzy-ARTMAP probabilistes, générés et mis à jour à l’aide d’une stratégie basée sur une optimisation par essaims de particules dynamiques, et utilisant la distance de Hellinger entre histogrammes pour détecter des changements. Les simulations réalisées sur la base de donnée de vidéo-surveillance Faces in Action (FIA) montrent que le système proposé permet de maintenir un haut niveau de performance dans le temps, tout en limitant la corruption de connaissance. Il montre des performances de classification supérieure à un système similaire passif (sans détection de changement), ainsi qu’a des systèmes de référence de type kNN probabiliste, et TCM-kNN. Au Chapitre 4, une évolution du système présenté au Chapitre 3 est proposée, intégrant des mécanismes permettant d’adapter dynamiquement le comportement du système aux conditions d’observation changeantes en mode opérationnel. Une nouvelle règle de fusion basée sur de la pondération dynamique est proposée, assignant à chaque classificateur un poids proportionnel à son niveau de compétence estimé vis-à-vis de chaque image à classifier. De plus, ces compétences sont estimées à l’aide des modèles de concepts utilisés en apprentissage pour la détection de changement, ce qui permet un allègement des ressources nécessaires en mode opérationnel. Une évolution de l’implémentation proposée au Chapitre 3 est présentée, dans laquelle les concepts sont modélisés à l’aide de l’algorithme de partitionnement Fuzzy C-Means, et la fusion de classificateurs réalisée avec une moyenne pondérée. Les simulation expérimentales avec les bases de données de vidéo-surveillance FIA et Chokepoint montrent que la méthode de fusion proposée permet d’obtenir des résultats supérieurs à la méthode de sélection dynamique DSOLA, tout en utilisant considérablement moins de ressources de calcul. De plus, la méthode proposée montre des performances de classification supérieures aux systèmes de référence de type kNN probabiliste, TCM-kNN et Adaptive Sparse Coding

New Fundamental Technologies in Data Mining

The progress of data mining technology and large public popularity establish a need for a comprehensive text on the subject. The series of books entitled by "Data Mining" address the need by presenting in-depth description of novel mining algorithms and many useful applications. In addition to understanding each section deeply, the two books present useful hints and strategies to solving problems in the following chapters. The contributing authors have highlighted many future research directions that will foster multi-disciplinary collaborations and hence will lead to significant development in the field of data mining