5,581 research outputs found
Integrating Learning from Examples into the Search for Diagnostic Policies
This paper studies the problem of learning diagnostic policies from training
examples. A diagnostic policy is a complete description of the decision-making
actions of a diagnostician (i.e., tests followed by a diagnostic decision) for
all possible combinations of test results. An optimal diagnostic policy is one
that minimizes the expected total cost, which is the sum of measurement costs
and misdiagnosis costs. In most diagnostic settings, there is a tradeoff
between these two kinds of costs. This paper formalizes diagnostic decision
making as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The paper introduces a new family of
systematic search algorithms based on the AO* algorithm to solve this MDP. To
make AO* efficient, the paper describes an admissible heuristic that enables
AO* to prune large parts of the search space. The paper also introduces several
greedy algorithms including some improvements over previously-published
methods. The paper then addresses the question of learning diagnostic policies
from examples. When the probabilities of diseases and test results are computed
from training data, there is a great danger of overfitting. To reduce
overfitting, regularizers are integrated into the search algorithms. Finally,
the paper compares the proposed methods on five benchmark diagnostic data sets.
The studies show that in most cases the systematic search methods produce
better diagnostic policies than the greedy methods. In addition, the studies
show that for training sets of realistic size, the systematic search algorithms
are practical on todays desktop computers
Real-time scheduling using minimum search
In this paper we consider a simple model of real-time scheduling. We present a real-time scheduling system called RTS which is based on Korf's Minimin algorithm. Experimental results show that the schedule quality initially improves with the amount of look-ahead search and tapers off quickly. So it sppears that reasonably good schedules can be produced with a relatively shallow search
Mixed-Integer Convex Nonlinear Optimization with Gradient-Boosted Trees Embedded
Decision trees usefully represent sparse, high dimensional and noisy data.
Having learned a function from this data, we may want to thereafter integrate
the function into a larger decision-making problem, e.g., for picking the best
chemical process catalyst. We study a large-scale, industrially-relevant
mixed-integer nonlinear nonconvex optimization problem involving both
gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions mitigating risk. This
mixed-integer optimization problem with convex penalty terms broadly applies to
optimizing pre-trained regression tree models. Decision makers may wish to
optimize discrete models to repurpose legacy predictive models, or they may
wish to optimize a discrete model that particularly well-represents a data set.
We develop several heuristic methods to find feasible solutions, and an exact,
branch-and-bound algorithm leveraging structural properties of the
gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions. We computationally test our
methods on concrete mixture design instance and a chemical catalysis industrial
instance
Cost-Sensitive Classification: Empirical Evaluation of a Hybrid Genetic Decision Tree Induction Algorithm
This paper introduces ICET, a new algorithm for cost-sensitive
classification. ICET uses a genetic algorithm to evolve a population of biases
for a decision tree induction algorithm. The fitness function of the genetic
algorithm is the average cost of classification when using the decision tree,
including both the costs of tests (features, measurements) and the costs of
classification errors. ICET is compared here with three other algorithms for
cost-sensitive classification - EG2, CS-ID3, and IDX - and also with C4.5,
which classifies without regard to cost. The five algorithms are evaluated
empirically on five real-world medical datasets. Three sets of experiments are
performed. The first set examines the baseline performance of the five
algorithms on the five datasets and establishes that ICET performs
significantly better than its competitors. The second set tests the robustness
of ICET under a variety of conditions and shows that ICET maintains its
advantage. The third set looks at ICET's search in bias space and discovers a
way to improve the search.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file
Train schedule coordination at an interchange station through agent negotiation
In open railway markets, coordinating train schedules at an interchange station requires negotiation between two independent train operating companies to resolve their operational conflicts. This paper models the stakeholders as software agents and proposes an agent negotiation model to study their interaction. Three negotiation strategies have been devised to represent the possible objectives of the stakeholders, and they determine the behavior in proposing offers to the proponent. Empirical simulation results confirm that the use of the proposed negotiation strategies lead to outcomes that are consistent with the objectives of the stakeholders
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