29 research outputs found

    The Flawed Probabilistic Foundation of Law & Economics

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    A data-driven approach to road accidents in the municipality of Lisbon

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    Traffic accidents in urban areas lead to reduced quality of life and social inequality in cities, specially in third world countries. The growth of the urban mesh and the population density is seldom accompanied by the development or sizing of the road infrastructure. It is a fact that the number and severity of road accidents in Portugal have been decreasing over the last thirty years, bringing us closer to the European average. However, despite these facts, the situation remains worrying. Despite the adoption of programs such as the European Commission Road Safety Program and the recent EU Road Safety Policy Framework 2021-2030 or, on a national basis, the PENSE 2020 - National Strategic Plan for Road Safety the number of road accidents with victims in the district of Lisbon is still higher than the European average. Thus, and for this dissertation, we conducted an exploratory data analysis (EDA) on the combined data of traffic incidents recorded in the occurrence management system of the Lisbon Fire Brigade Regiment (RSB) and the road accidents reported to ANSR by the security forces (GNR and PSP) through the Statistical Bulletin of Traffic Accidents (BEAV). Furthermore, with data from occurrences in the Municipality of Lisbon between 2010 and 2020, to identify the existence of Black Spots in Lisbon's roads and which are the most significant and contributing factors to explain their existence. The data on road accidents were also georeferenced to capitalize their spatial existence and, consequently, better understand the existing spatial patterns and risk factors. Subsequently, through the use of the ArcGIS Pro we apply the algorithms of the Kernel Density and Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) tools, identifying the existence of the black spots, and that human, environmental and circumstantial factors have an influence on the severity of accidents, being the content validity guaranteed through an expert committee. This way, our research goal is to contribute to identify accident concentration areas in the city of Lisbon (hotspots), considering their influencing conditions.Os acidentes de trânsito em áreas urbanas conduzem à redução da qualidade de vida e à desigualdade social nas cidades, especialmente nos países em desenvolvimento. O crescimento da malha urbana, assim como, a densidade populacional raramente é acompanhada pelo desenvolvimento ou dimensionamento da infraestrutura rodoviária. É um facto que o número e a gravidade dos acidentes rodoviários em Portugal têm vindo a diminuir ao longo dos últimos trinta anos, o que permitiu aproximarmos da média Europeia, apesar destes factos a situação continua a ser preocupante. Apesar da adoção de programas como o Programa de Segurança Rodoviária da Comissão Europeia ou, numa base nacional, o PENSE 2020 - Plano Estratégico Nacional para a Segurança Rodoviária os números de acidentes de viação com vítimas no distrito de Lisboa continuam a ser mais elevados do que a média europeia. Desta forma e para efeitos deste trabalho realizamos uma análise de dados exploratória (AED) aos dados dos incidentes de transito registados no sistema de gestão de ocorrências do Regimento de Sapadores Bombeiros de Lisboa e a os dados de acidentes rodoviários reportados à ANSR pelas forças de segurança (GNR e PSP) através do Boletim Estatístico de Acidentes de Viação (BEAV) e ocorridos no concelho de Lisboa entre 2010 e 2020 por forma a identificar a existência de Pontos Negros nas vias de Lisboa e quais os fatores mais significantes e contribuintes que permitam explicar a sua existência. Os dados relativos aos acidentes rodoviários foram também georreferenciados para capitalizar a sua existência espacial e, consequentemente, compreender melhor os padrões espaciais existentes e os fatores de risco. Posteriormente através do recurso ArcGIS Pro aplicaram-se os algoritmos das ferramentas Densidade de Kernel e Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), identificando a existência dos pontos negros, e que fatores humanos, ambientais e circunstanciais têm influência na gravidade dos acidentes e que algumas variáveis de exposição foram consideradas importantes na explicação da ocorrência dos mesmos, sendo a validade do conteúdo garantida através de uma comissão de especialistas. Pretende-se, assim, contribuir para a identificação das zonas de concentração de acidentes da cidade de Lisboa (hotspots), tendo em conta as suas condições influenciadoras. Potenciando a segurança rodoviária no município

    Design and development of a bus simulator for bus driver

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    The bus industry is plagued by high accident costs and risks of passenger injuries. A bus simulator may offer a method of reducing accident rates by delivering targeted training to bus drivers who are most at risk. The first part of this thesis describes the design of the UK's first bus simulator, the fidelity of which was based on a thorough analysis of bus crashes. The second part describes the first studies in a multi-staged method to evaluate the training effectiveness of the simulator: face validity, effects of bus driver experience and stress on simulated performance and simulator sickness. This approach ensured that the ABS has a reasonable level of fidelity, is capable of eliciting behaviourally valid responses from bus drivers and is the first step is achieving training transfer effectiveness. The final study investigated the occurrence of self-bias in bus drivers. The conclusions drove the design of simulated scenarios to be used for bus driver training. Keywords: Bus, Simulator, Fidelity, Validity, Accidents, Driving, Stress, TrainingEThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

    2000 Transportation Scholars Conference: Compendium of Papers, 2000

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    Compendium of papers presented at the Transportation Scholars Conference in 2000

    Scientific, Technical, and Forensic Evidence

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    Materials from the conference on Scientific, Technical, and Forensic Evidence held by UK/CLE in February 2002

    Driving as you feel : a psychological investigation of the novice driver problem

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    The current thesis aimed to explore the novice driver problem from a psychological perspective. The ultimate aim was to enhance knowledge and understanding which may advise how to improve novice driver safety. The novice driver problem is a worldwide trend; which in the UK involves one in five newly licensed drivers being crash involved in their first year of driving (Maycock & Forsyth, 1997). Research suggests that both age and inexperience are the major factors of novice driver crash risk; although inexperience has been shown to be the more important (Maycock, 2002). Crash risk reduces dramatically as drivers gain experience of driving after licensure, although what drivers are psychologically learning through experience is not yet understood. Using the Task-Capability Interface model (Fuller, 2005) to conceptualise driving, the current thesis sought to extend the theory by exploring the psychological processes through which drivers appraise risk and how this shapes a decision and behavioural response. Study One reports that there are two distinct ways in which drivers appraise risk, which supports theory proposed by Slovic et al. (2004): risk as feelings and risk as analysis. Current neurological theory, in the form of the Somatic Marker Hypothesis (Damasio, 1994), supports the role of feelings and emotion as an evolved automated system of human risk appraisal that biases judgement and decision making. Studies Two and Three investigated emotional appraisal of hazards between novice and experienced drivers through physiological skin conductance. The results suggest that novice drivers fail to emotionally appraise developing hazards when compared to experienced drivers. Study Three demonstrated that novice drivers who had driven less than 1000 miles had physiological anticipatory scores similar to learner drivers whereas novices who had driven more than 1000 miles had scores approaching those of experienced drivers. This demonstrated a learning curve mediated by driving experience. As a result of the thesis, it is suggested that further research into the role of feelings and emotion in learning to drive is performed. The implication of the results for graduated licensing is also discussed.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

    Driving as You Feel: A Psychological Investigation of the Novice Driver Problem.

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    The current thesis aimed to explore the novice driver problem from a psychological perspective. The ultimate aim was to enhance knowledge and understanding which may advise how to improve novice driver safety. The novice driver problem is a worldwide trend; which in the UK involves one in five newly licensed drivers being crash involved in their first year of driving (Maycock & Forsyth, 1997). Research suggests that both age and inexperience are the major factors of novice driver crash risk; although inexperience has been shown to be the more important (Maycock, 2002). Crash risk reduces dramatically as drivers gain experience of driving after licensure, although what drivers are psychologically learning through experience is not yet understood. Using the Task-Capability Interface model (Fuller, 2005) to conceptualise driving, the current thesis sought to extend the theory by exploring the psychological processes through which drivers appraise risk and how this shapes a decision and behavioural response. Study One reports that there are two distinct ways in which drivers appraise risk, which supports theory proposed by Slovic et al. (2004): risk as feelings and risk as analysis. Current neurological theory, in the form of the Somatic Marker Hypothesis (Damasio, 1994), supports the role of feelings and emotion as an evolved automated system of human risk appraisal that biases judgement and decision making. Studies Two and Three investigated emotional appraisal of hazards between novice and experienced drivers through physiological skin conductance. The results suggest that novice drivers fail to emotionally appraise developing hazards when compared to experienced drivers. Study Three demonstrated that novice drivers who had driven less than 1000 miles had physiological anticipatory scores similar to learner drivers whereas novices who had driven more than 1000 miles had scores approaching those of experienced drivers. This demonstrated a learning curve mediated by driving experience. As a result of the thesis, it is suggested that further research into the role of feelings and emotion in learning to drive is performed. The implication of the results for graduated licensing is also discussed

    Understanding the Concept of Knowledge in Healthcare Services: A Grounded Approach

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    The objective of this dissertation is to explore the meanings of knowledge as understood by senior medical staff in the UK’s National Health Service. It asks the question: 'What does it mean to know something?' The assumption is that an exploration of these meanings will help in designing systems to manage such knowledge. This is because the meaning of knowledge in the literature is contested and the models for its management are extremely variable, to the extent that it is proving challenging to establish knowledge management as an academic discipline or credible business tool. Twelve in-depth interviews were completed and analysed using a constructivist grounded theory approach. Six main categories were constructed. These are: finding motivating factors to pursue knowledge; interacting with knowledge sources; undergoing a process of knowledge acquisition; practising skills; seeking peers’ views; and, finally, building confidence as knowledge. Confidence was selected as the core category and the backbone of the constructed theory. The constructed theory argues that confidence is an important, integral aspect of our knowledge. One knows something if one thinks confidently that one knows it. Someone who understands a subject very well but lacks confidence simply does not know that subject. On the other hand, people can be overconfident or possess completely unjustified, misplaced confidence in situations where they lack understanding or ability. According to the emergent theory, these individuals are still knowledgeable, albeit in an incorrect or negative way. The emergent theory provides a new understanding of the concept of knowledge: knowledge as a type of emotion, i.e. confidence. This differs from the current understanding of knowledge, which views it as either objective information that requires cognitive processing or as human behaviour that influences practice. According to the emergent theory, knowledge is not necessarily a logical mental process nor purposeful human behaviour, but a fallible emotion, which can be harder to measure, observe or control than the two former phenomena. Confidence is an essential feature of knowledge and this thesis concludes by proposing a tool for confidence management within the NHS
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