Relative Entailment Among Probabilistic Implications

We study a natural variant of the implicational fragment of propositional logic. Its formulas are pairs of conjunctions of positive literals, related together by an implicational-like connective; the semantics of this sort of implication is defined in terms of a threshold on a conditional probability of the consequent, given the antecedent: we are dealing with what the data analysis community calls confidence of partial implications or association rules. Existing studies of redundancy among these partial implications have characterized so far only entailment from one premise and entailment from two premises, both in the stand-alone case and in the case of presence of additional classical implications (this is what we call "relative entailment"). By exploiting a previously noted alternative view of the entailment in terms of linear programming duality, we characterize exactly the cases of entailment from arbitrary numbers of premises, again both in the stand-alone case and in the case of presence of additional classical implications. As a result, we obtain decision algorithms of better complexity; additionally, for each potential case of entailment, we identify a critical confidence threshold and show that it is, actually, intrinsic to each set of premises and antecedent of the conclusion

Nonmonotonic Probabilistic Logics between Model-Theoretic Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Logic under Coherence

Recently, it has been shown that probabilistic entailment under coherence is weaker than model-theoretic probabilistic entailment. Moreover, probabilistic entailment under coherence is a generalization of default entailment in System P. In this paper, we continue this line of research by presenting probabilistic generalizations of more sophisticated notions of classical default entailment that lie between model-theoretic probabilistic entailment and probabilistic entailment under coherence. That is, the new formalisms properly generalize their counterparts in classical default reasoning, they are weaker than model-theoretic probabilistic entailment, and they are stronger than probabilistic entailment under coherence. The new formalisms are useful especially for handling probabilistic inconsistencies related to conditioning on zero events. They can also be applied for probabilistic belief revision. More generally, in the same spirit as a similar previous paper, this paper sheds light on exciting new formalisms for probabilistic reasoning beyond the well-known standard ones.Comment: 10 pages; in Proceedings of the 9th International Workshop on Non-Monotonic Reasoning (NMR-2002), Special Session on Uncertainty Frameworks in Nonmonotonic Reasoning, pages 265-274, Toulouse, France, April 200

Implications of probabilistic data modeling for rule mining

Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. In the current literature, the properties of algorithms to mine associations are discussed in great detail. In this paper we investigate properties of transaction data sets from a probabilistic point of view. We present a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data and its implementation using the R statistical computing environment. The framework can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data to explore the ability to filter noise of confidence and lift, two popular interest measures used for rule mining. Based on the framework we develop the measure hyperlift and we compare this new measure to lift using simulated data and a real-world grocery database.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematic

Thermodynamic fluctuation relation for temperature and energy

The present work extends the well-known thermodynamic relation $C=\beta ^{2}< \delta {E^{2}}>$ for the canonical ensemble. We start from the general situation of the thermodynamic equilibrium between a large but finite system of interest and a generalized thermostat, which we define in the course of the paper. The resulting identity $=1+< \delta {E^{2}}> \partial ^{2}S(E) /\partial {E^{2}}$ can account for thermodynamic states with a negative heat capacity $C<0$; at the same time, it represents a thermodynamic fluctuation relation that imposes some restrictions on the determination of the microcanonical caloric curve $\beta (E) =\partial S(E) /\partial E$. Finally, we comment briefly on the implications of the present result for the development of new Monte Carlo methods and an apparent analogy with quantum mechanics.Comment: Version accepted for publication in J. Phys. A: Math and The

Towards an Information Retrieval Theory of Everything

I present three well-known probabilistic models of information retrieval in tutorial style: The binary independence probabilistic model, the language modeling approach, and Google's page rank. Although all three models are based on probability theory, they are very different in nature. Each model seems well-suited for solving certain information retrieval problems, but not so useful for solving others. So, essentially each model solves part of a bigger puzzle, and a unified view on these models might be a first step towards an Information Retrieval Theory of Everything