Neighborhood Crime and Travel Behavior: An Investigation of the Influence of Neighborhood Crime Rates on Mode Choice – Phase II, MTI Report 11-04

There are considerable environmental and public health benefits if people choose to walk, bicycle, or ride transit, instead of drive. However, little work has been done on the effects of neighborhood crimes on mode choice. Instinctively, we understand that the threats posed by possible criminal activity in one’s neighborhood can play a major role in the decision to drive, take transit, walk or ride a bicycle, but so far little empirical evidence supports this notion, let alone guides public infrastructure investments, land use planning, or the allocation of police services. This report--describing Phase 2 of a research study conducted for the Mineta Transportation Institute on crime and travel behavior – finds that high crime neighborhoods tend to discourage residents from walking or riding a bicycle. When comparing a high crime to a lower crime neighborhood the odds of walking over choosing auto decrease by 17.25 percent for work trips and 61 percent for non-work trips. For transit access to work trips, the odds of choosing walk/bike to a transit station over auto decrease by 48.1 percent. Transit trips, on the other hand, are affected by neighborhood crime levels in a similar way to auto trips, wherein high crime neighborhoods appear to encourage transit mode choice. The odds of taking transit over choosing auto increase by 17.25 percent for work trips and 164 percent for non-work trips. Surprised by this last finding, the research team tested two possible explanations for why high levels of neighborhood crime would increase transit use: 1) the mode choice models do not adequately account for the effects and interplay between urban form and crime levels and mode choice; and 2) people who ride in cars or take transit may feel more protected when riding in a vehicle (termed here, the “neighborhood exposure hypothesis”). To investigate the first explanation, the researchers tested a number of alternative urban form and crime interaction variables to no effect. Digging deeper into the second hypothesis, the researchers tested whether the access portion of transit trips (walking, bicycling, or driving to a transit stop) is sensitive to neighborhood crimes as well, wherein high crime neighborhoods discourage walking and bicycling and encourage driving to transit stations. The report provides evidence that high crime neighborhoods encourage driving to transit stops and discourage walking or bicycling, lending support to the neighborhood exposure hypothesis

Long-term Labour Market Performance of Whiplash Claimants

A whiplash is a sudden acceleration-deceleration of the neck and head, typically associated with a rear-end car collision that may produce injuries in the soft tissue. Often there are no objective signs or symptoms of injury, and diagnosing lasting whiplash associated disorders (WAD) is difficult, in particular for individuals with mild or moderate injuries. This leaves a scope for compensation-seeking behaviour. The medical literature disagrees on the importance of this explanation. In this paper we trace the long-term earnings of a group of Danish individuals with mild to moderate injuries claiming compensation for having permanently lost earnings capacity and investigate if they return to their full pre-whiplash earnings when the insurance claim has been assessed. We find that about half of the claimants, those not granted compensation, return to an earnings level comparable with their pre-whiplash earnings suggesting that these individuals do not have chronic WAD in the sense that their earnings capacity is reduced. The other half, those granted compensation, experience persistent reductions in earnings relative to the case where they had not been exposed to a whiplash, even when they have a strong financial incentive to not reduce earnings. This suggests that moderate injuries tend to be chronic, and that compensation-seeking behaviour is not the main explanation for this group. We find that claimants with chronic WADs used more health care in the year prior to the whiplash than claimants with non-chronic cases. This suggests that lower initial health capital increases the risk that a whiplash causes persistent WAD.dissolution; whiplash; register data; labour market

Randomised controlled trials of complex interventions and large-scale transformation of services

Complex interventions and large-scale transformations of services are necessary to meet the health-care challenges of the 21st century. However, the evaluation of these types of interventions is challenging and requires methodological development. Innovations such as cluster randomised controlled trials, stepped-wedge designs, and non-randomised evaluations provide options to meet the needs of decision-makers. Adoption of theory and logic models can help clarify causal assumptions, and process evaluation can assist in understanding delivery in context. Issues of implementation must also be considered throughout intervention design and evaluation to ensure that results can be scaled for population benefit. Relevance requires evaluations conducted under real-world conditions, which in turn requires a pragmatic attitude to design. The increasing complexity of interventions and evaluations threatens the ability of researchers to meet the needs of decision-makers for rapid results. Improvements in efficiency are thus crucial, with electronic health records offering significant potential

Incapacity Benefit: A Health or Labour Market Phenomenon?

The number of people claiming Incapacity Benefit has remained fairly constant in recent years at around 2.7 million (7% of the working age population), although the numbers have trebled since the 1970s when an earlier version of this benefit was available. In January 2006 the UK Government set the ambitious target of reducing the number of claimants by one million, or around 40% of the total, within the next decade. New initiatives will focus on increasing the number of people who remain in work and increasing the number leaving benefits and finding employment. This paper explores these two critical transitions using data from waves 5 to 13 of the British Household Panel Survey. We consider whether the moves onto and off benefit are driven by health status or whether labour market factors are also important. Our results show that while health, and in particular psychological health, is an important determinant of these transitions, other factors such as age, occupation and geographical location are also key explanatory factors. This suggests that a very broad range of policy measures will be required if the government is to meet its target

Goal-setting And Achievement In Activity Tracking Apps: A Case Study Of MyFitnessPal

Activity tracking apps often make use of goals as one of their core motivational tools. There are two critical components to this tool: setting a goal, and subsequently achieving that goal. Despite its crucial role in how a number of prominent self-tracking apps function, there has been relatively little investigation of the goal-setting and achievement aspects of self-tracking apps. Here we explore this issue, investigating a particular goal setting and achievement process that is extensive, recorded, and crucial for both the app and its users' success: weight loss goals in MyFitnessPal. We present a large-scale study of 1.4 million users and weight loss goals, allowing for an unprecedented detailed view of how people set and achieve their goals. We find that, even for difficult long-term goals, behavior within the first 7 days predicts those who ultimately achieve their goals, that is, those who lose at least as much weight as they set out to, and those who do not. For instance, high amounts of early weight loss, which some researchers have classified as unsustainable, leads to higher goal achievement rates. We also show that early food intake, self-monitoring motivation, and attitude towards the goal are important factors. We then show that we can use our findings to predict goal achievement with an accuracy of 79% ROC AUC just 7 days after a goal is set. Finally, we discuss how our findings could inform steps to improve goal achievement in self-tracking apps

Does Leaving Welfare Improve Health? Evidence for Germany

Using exceptionally rich linked administrative and survey information on German welfare recipients we investigate the health effects of transitions from welfare to employment and of assignments to welfare-to-work programmes. Applying semi-parametric propensity score matching estimators we find that employment substantially increases (mental) health. The positive effects are mainly driven by males and individuals with bad initial health conditions and are largest for males with poor health. In contrast, the effects of welfare-to-work programmes, including subsidized jobs, are ambiguous and statistically insignificant for most outcomes. Robustness checks that include a semi-parametric instrumental variable approach do not provide reasons for concern.welfare programs, health effects