Boolean delay equations on networks: An application to economic damage propagation

We introduce economic models based on Boolean Delay Equations: this formalism makes easier to take into account the complexity of the interactions between firms and is particularly appropriate for studying the propagation of an initial damage due to a catastrophe. Here we concentrate on simple cases, which allow to understand the effects of multiple concurrent production paths as well as the presence of stochasticity in the path time lengths or in the network structure. In absence of flexibility, the shortening of production of a single firm in an isolated network with multiple connections usually ends up by attaining a finite fraction of the firms or the whole economy, whereas the interactions with the outside allow a partial recovering of the activity, giving rise to periodic solutions with waves of damage which propagate across the structure. The damage propagation speed is strongly dependent upon the topology. The existence of multiple concurrent production paths does not necessarily imply a slowing down of the propagation, which can be as fast as the shortest path.Comment: Latex, 52 pages with 22 eps figure

Modeling Fault Propagation Paths in Power Systems: A New Framework Based on Event SNP Systems With Neurotransmitter Concentration

To reveal fault propagation paths is one of the most critical studies for the analysis of power system security; however, it is rather dif cult. This paper proposes a new framework for the fault propagation path modeling method of power systems based on membrane computing.We rst model the fault propagation paths by proposing the event spiking neural P systems (Ev-SNP systems) with neurotransmitter concentration, which can intuitively reveal the fault propagation path due to the ability of its graphics models and parallel knowledge reasoning. The neurotransmitter concentration is used to represent the probability and gravity degree of fault propagation among synapses. Then, to reduce the dimension of the Ev-SNP system and make them suitable for large-scale power systems, we propose a model reduction method for the Ev-SNP system and devise its simpli ed model by constructing single-input and single-output neurons, called reduction-SNP system (RSNP system). Moreover, we apply the RSNP system to the IEEE 14- and 118-bus systems to study their fault propagation paths. The proposed approach rst extends the SNP systems to a large-scaled application in critical infrastructures from a single element to a system-wise investigation as well as from the post-ante fault diagnosis to a new ex-ante fault propagation path prediction, and the simulation results show a new success and promising approach to the engineering domain

A Novel Stochastic Decoding of LDPC Codes with Quantitative Guarantees

Low-density parity-check codes, a class of capacity-approaching linear codes, are particularly recognized for their efficient decoding scheme. The decoding scheme, known as the sum-product, is an iterative algorithm consisting of passing messages between variable and check nodes of the factor graph. The sum-product algorithm is fully parallelizable, owing to the fact that all messages can be update concurrently. However, since it requires extensive number of highly interconnected wires, the fully-parallel implementation of the sum-product on chips is exceedingly challenging. Stochastic decoding algorithms, which exchange binary messages, are of great interest for mitigating this challenge and have been the focus of extensive research over the past decade. They significantly reduce the required wiring and computational complexity of the message-passing algorithm. Even though stochastic decoders have been shown extremely effective in practice, the theoretical aspect and understanding of such algorithms remains limited at large. Our main objective in this paper is to address this issue. We first propose a novel algorithm referred to as the Markov based stochastic decoding. Then, we provide concrete quantitative guarantees on its performance for tree-structured as well as general factor graphs. More specifically, we provide upper-bounds on the first and second moments of the error, illustrating that the proposed algorithm is an asymptotically consistent estimate of the sum-product algorithm. We also validate our theoretical predictions with experimental results, showing we achieve comparable performance to other practical stochastic decoders.Comment: This paper has been submitted to IEEE Transactions on Information Theory on May 24th 201

Decision making with decision event graphs

We introduce a new modelling representation, the Decision Event Graph (DEG), for asymmetric multistage decision problems. The DEG explicitly encodes conditional independences and has additional significant advantages over other representations of asymmetric decision problems. The colouring of edges makes it possible to identify conditional independences on decision trees, and these coloured trees serve as a basis for the construction of the DEG. We provide an efficient backward-induction algorithm for finding optimal decision rules on DEGs, and work through an example showing the efficacy of these graphs. Simplifications of the topology of a DEG admit analogues to the sufficiency principle and barren node deletion steps used with influence diagrams