Spectral Graph Convolutions for Population-based Disease Prediction

Exploiting the wealth of imaging and non-imaging information for disease prediction tasks requires models capable of representing, at the same time, individual features as well as data associations between subjects from potentially large populations. Graphs provide a natural framework for such tasks, yet previous graph-based approaches focus on pairwise similarities without modelling the subjects' individual characteristics and features. On the other hand, relying solely on subject-specific imaging feature vectors fails to model the interaction and similarity between subjects, which can reduce performance. In this paper, we introduce the novel concept of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) for brain analysis in populations, combining imaging and non-imaging data. We represent populations as a sparse graph where its vertices are associated with image-based feature vectors and the edges encode phenotypic information. This structure was used to train a GCN model on partially labelled graphs, aiming to infer the classes of unlabelled nodes from the node features and pairwise associations between subjects. We demonstrate the potential of the method on the challenging ADNI and ABIDE databases, as a proof of concept of the benefit from integrating contextual information in classification tasks. This has a clear impact on the quality of the predictions, leading to 69.5% accuracy for ABIDE (outperforming the current state of the art of 66.8%) and 77% for ADNI for prediction of MCI conversion, significantly outperforming standard linear classifiers where only individual features are considered.Comment: International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer-Assisted Interventions (MICCAI) 201

Design and implementation of a standardized framework to generate and evaluate patient-level prediction models using observational healthcare data

Objective: To develop a conceptual prediction model framework containing standardized steps and describe the corresponding open-source software developed to consistently implement the framework across computational environments and observational healthcare databases to enable model sharing and reproducibility. Methods: Based on existing best practices we propose a 5 step standardized framework for: (1) transparently defining the problem; (2) selecting suitable datasets; (3) constructing variables from the observational data; (4) learning the predictive model; and (5) validating the model performance. We implemented this framework as open-source software utilizing the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model to enable convenient sharing of models and reproduction of model evaluation across multiple observational datasets. The software implementation contains default covariates and classifiers but the framework enables customization and extension. Results: As a proof-of-concept, demonstrating the transparency and ease of model dissemination using the software, we developed prediction models for 21 different outcomes within a target population of people suffering from depression across 4 observational databases. All 84 models are available in an accessible online repository to be implemented by anyone with access to an observational database in the Common DataModel format. Conclusions: The proof-of-concept study illustrates the framework's ability to develop reproducible models that can be readily shared and offers the potential to perform extensive external validation of models, and improve their likelihood of clinical uptake. In future work the framework will be applied to perform an "all-by-all" prediction analysis to assess the observational data prediction domain across numerous target populations, outcomes and time, and risk settings